Try the model
RUTG

Rutgers 40 at North Carolina 21

UNC
2014 · Quick Lane Bowl · Dec 26, 2014 · Ford Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreRUTG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG—UNC 17.5%Kyle Federico 19 yd FG GOODAWAY 23 - HOME 0 · Q2 0:11
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:11 · Kyle Federico 19 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Home team on offense−28.6Score differential−11.8Garbage-time factor−4.6Pregame prior+4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:37: Josh Hicks run for 21 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +6.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:08: Robert Martin run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico PAT MISSED) — RUTG win probability +10.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:39: Marquise Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK) — UNC win probability +8.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:33: Gary Nova pass complete to Andrew Turzilli for 34 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +13.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:59: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK) — UNC win probability +3.2 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 9RUTG made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:07UNC 4th & 2 at RUTG 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:13RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:12UNC 4th & 8 at RUTG 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    55.9%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:45RUTG 4th & 8 at RUTG 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:19UNC 4th & 4 at RUTG 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    54.6%−0.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:09UNC 4th & 3 at RUTG 14, down 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.0%−0.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:04RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 26, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:55UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 40, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:11RUTG 4th & 2 at UNC 2, up 20
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.3%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−6.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:00RUTG 4th & 1 at UNC 36, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%−3.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−4.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:33UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 47, down 23
    Close callPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:30RUTG 4th & 14 at RUTG 24, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:20UNC 4th & 26 at UNC 25, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−2.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:17UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 37, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:04RUTG 4th & 4 at UNC 14, up 30
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:47UNC 4th & 4 at RUTG 8, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−0.6
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3RUTG made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:43RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:37RUTG Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:08RUTG Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:39UNC Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:33RUTG Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:11RUTG Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:45UNC Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:59UNC Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RUTGDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0740% → 41%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.9%
Robert Martin run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
59.9%
Robert Martin run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
59.9%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 20 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
59.7%
Robert Martin run for 10 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
58.9%
Gary Nova pass complete to Andre Patton for 34 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2FUMBLE
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:3959% → 58%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
59.0%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
59.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 2 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+4
58.9%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
58.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 5 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
58.9%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 1
OPP 47
-1
58.7%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 48Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+4
58.4%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
58.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Jack Tabb) to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+9
58.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 9 yds Quinshad Davis fumbled, forced by Anthony Cioffi, recovered by Rutgr Lorenzo WatersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1743% → 42%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
57.4%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
57.5%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Tyler KroftSimilar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
57.7%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Andre PattonSimilar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+34
58.0%
Joseph Roth punt for 34 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 2:5758% → 57%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Jack TabbSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
57.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
57.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 14 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
57.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
57.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Elijah HoodSimilar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+11
57.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 11 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
57.8%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
57.7%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
57.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 3
OPP 40
-5
57.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Tim Scott) to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
56.5%
Joey Mangili punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the Rutgr 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1544% → 44%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
56.2%
Robert Martin run for no gain to the Rutgr 16Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
56.1%
Robert Martin run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
56.3%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Andrew TurzilliSimilar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 8
OWN 18
+1
56.4%
Joseph Roth punt for 13 yds , Dominquie Green returns for 1 yd to the Rutgr 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:1858% → 55%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
57.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 2 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+17
57.5%
Marquise Williams run for 17 yds to the Rutgr 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
57.3%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 8Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-2
57.3%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 10Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+5
56.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 5 yds to the Rutgr 5Similar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 4
OPP 5
-4
55.2%
(Fake Field Goal) Joey Mangili run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7TD
7 plays · 91 yds · 3:2345% → 56%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
54.6%
Josh Hicks run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 12Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+23
54.1%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 23 yds to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
53.2%
Josh Hicks run for 18 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
52.1%
Josh Hicks run for 6 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+15
51.6%
Gary Nova run for 15 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
51.2%
Josh Hicks run for 5 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+21
44.3%
Josh Hicks run for 21 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:4646% → 45%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 6 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
46.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 7 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
46.9%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
44.9%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+8
45.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 8 yds Romar Morris fumbled, forced by Steve Longa, recovered by Rutgr Lorenzo WatersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:5259% → 71%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
41.4%
Gary Nova pass complete to Andre Patton for 19 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
41.4%
Robert Martin run for 13 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
40.7%
Robert Martin run for 2 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+7
39.5%
Robert Martin run for 7 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
29.2%
Robert Martin run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 1:4134% → 35%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
33.8%
T.J. Logan run for 11 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
34.5%
T.J. Logan run for 20 yds to the Rutgr 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
34.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 2 yds to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+19
35.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 19 yds to the Rutgr 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
36.1%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 15Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+1
35.8%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 14Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 3
OPP 14
0
34.9%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+31
34.6%
Thomas Moore 31 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Lorenzo WatersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5672% → 72%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
28.2%
Josh Hicks run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
27.5%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
28.0%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Andre Patton, broken up by Kedrick DavisSimilar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+1
28.1%
Joseph Roth punt for 49 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:0031% → 30%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
31.1%
Elijah Hood run for 10 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
31.5%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
31.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
30.7%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
29.9%
Joey Mangili punt for 20 yds, downed at the Rutgr 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:2975% → 83%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
24.9%
Robert Martin run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+10
24.3%
Gary Nova pass complete to Michael Burton for 10 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+22
23.6%
Gary Nova pass complete to Tyler Kroft for 22 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
22.0%
Robert Martin run for 5 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
19.7%
Josh Hicks run for no gain to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+14
19.3%
Gary Nova pass complete to Andre Patton for 14 yds to the NCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
18.3%
Robert Martin run for 4 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
18.2%
Robert Martin run for 1 yd to the NCaro 2Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
17.7%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Andre PattonSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
17.5%
Kyle Federico 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
22.4%
T.J. Logan run for 12 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 4:0622% → 30%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
22.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 5 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+6
22.4%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
22.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 16 yds to the Rutgr 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
21.5%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+3
20.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 3 yds to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+5
19.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 5 yds to the Rutgr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+26
20.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 26 yds to the Rutgr 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
21.9%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 11Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+8
20.0%
Marquise Williams run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 3Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
18.9%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
19.5%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the Rutgr 1Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.7%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5778% → 95%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
21.7%
Josh Hicks run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+25
21.0%
Josh Hicks run for 25 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
19.0%
Josh Hicks run for 1 yd to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
18.9%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Andrew Turzilli, broken up by Sam SmileySimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+8
19.0%
Gary Nova pass complete to John Tsimis for 8 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
19.2%
(Fake Punt) Michael Burton run for 2 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
5.4%
Gary Nova pass complete to Andrew Turzilli for 34 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:479% → 9%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
9.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to T.J. LoganSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
8.9%
Marquise Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
9.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+25
9.0%
Nick Weiler punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kyle Federico at the UNC 13 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Kendrick Singleton) to the Rutgr 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3095% → 96%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
4.8%
Robert Martin run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-5
4.4%
RUTGERS Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Betim Bujari) to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 13
OWN 25
-1
4.3%
Robert Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 14
OWN 24
0
4.4%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to John Tsimis, broken up by Dominquie GreenSimilar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 14
OWN 24
+8
4.4%
Joseph Roth punt for 54 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 8 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:407% → 6%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
6.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 6 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
6.6%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
6.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to T.J. LoganSimilar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-3
6.5%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 13
OWN 38
-13
6.1%
Marquise Williams sacked by Darius Hamilton for a loss of 13 yards to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 26
OWN 25
0
5.7%
Nick Weiler punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the Rutgr 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:4997% → 99%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
2.8%
Josh Hicks run for 7 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+6
2.6%
Robert Martin run for 6 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
2.3%
Robert Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+15
2.4%
Gary Nova run for 15 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
2.1%
Robert Martin run for 1 yd to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+28
0.8%
Robert Martin run for 28 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:331% → 1%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
0.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 10 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-15
0.8%
Williams, Marquise pass middle deep complete to Switzer, Ryan for loss of 42 yards to the UNC0 (caught at the UNC3), PENALTY UNC pass interference (Switzer, Ryan) 15 yards to the UNC27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 25
OWN 27
0
0.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 25
OWN 27
+10
0.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 10 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 15
OWN 37
0
0.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Elijah HoodSimilar
Q4 12:17
4TH & 15
OWN 37
+21
0.5%
Nick Weiler punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the UNC 27 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Jack Tabb) to the Rutgr 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22FG
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:5699% → 100%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
0.6%
Josh Hicks run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+35
0.6%
Josh Hicks run for 35 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
0.5%
Justin Goodwin run for 6 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
0.4%
Gary Nova pass incomplete, broken up by Dominquie Green. Play reviewed and overturned (originally ruled an interception by Green).Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
0.4%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Janarion GrantSimilar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
0.5%
Kyle Federico 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:050% → 0%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
0.3%
T.J. Logan run for 17 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
0.3%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+5
0.3%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+13
0.3%
Marquise Williams run for 13 yds to the Rutgr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
0.3%
RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Darius Hamilton) to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 5
OPP 28
+4
0.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+11
0.2%
Elijah Hood run for 11 yds to the Rutgr 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
0.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 6 yds to the Rutgr 7Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
0.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 7 yds for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 1:310% → 4%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
0.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 6 yds to the Rutgr 48Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+23
0.3%
Elijah Hood run for 23 yds to the Rutgr 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
0.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 14 yds to the Rutgr 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
0.4%
Elijah Hood run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 5Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+4
0.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 4 yds to the Rutgr 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:033% → 3%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
2.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 2 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+14
2.5%
T.J. Logan run for 14 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+23
2.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jordan Fieulleteau for 23 yds to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
3.0%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 8Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 4
OPP 8
0
3.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Quinshad Davis, broken up by Kevin SnyderSimilar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 4
OPP 8
-15
2.8%
Trubisky, Mitch pass middle post complete to Tabb, Jack for 8 yards to the RUTGERS0 (caught at the RUTGERS0), PENALTY UNC pass interference (Tabb, Jack) 15 yards to the RUTGERS23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 19
OPP 23
+15
2.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Damien Washington for 15 yds to the Rutgr 8Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 4
OPP 8
0
2.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 26END OF GAME
9 plays · 59 yds · 1:4599% → 99%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
0.9%
Josh Hicks run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 13Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+49
0.6%
Josh Hicks run for 49 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
0.4%
Josh Hicks run for 1 yd to the NCaro 37Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
0.6%
Josh Hicks run for no gain to the NCaro 37Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+4
0.6%
Josh Hicks run for 4 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:33
Gary Nova pass complete to Andrew Turzilli for 34 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)
-13.7
TD · Q2 9:08
Robert Martin run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico PAT MISSED)
-10.3
TD · Q3 10:39
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)
+8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com