Try the model
ASU

Arizona State 36 at Duke 31

DUKE
2014 · Hyundai Sun Bowl · Dec 27, 2014 · Sun Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:22 · Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior−4.0Home team on offense−17.9Garbage-time factor−5.9Score differential−4.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:31: Demario Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +8.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:08: Taylor Kelly pass complete to Demario Richard for 11 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +9.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:10: Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 14 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +17.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 5:03: Jamison Crowder pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 12 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +37.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:45: Demario Richard 4 Yd pass from Taylor Kelly (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — ASU win probability +45.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 12:23DUKE 4th & 20 at DUKE 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:22DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:39ASU 4th & 4 at DUKE 11, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.5%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:59DUKE 4th & 5 at ASU 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:54DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:43ASU 4th & 1 at DUKE 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    72.3%−0.7
    86% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:49ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 25, up 10
    Close callPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00ASU 4th & 16 at ASU 34, up 3
    Numbers favored punt by 3.3 ptsWent for it · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.6%−3.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:59ASU 4th & 1 at DUKE 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    61.5%−2.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−8.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:23ASU 4th & 4 at DUKE 30, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.0%−0.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−2.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:39DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 40, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.0%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:29DUKE 4th & 1 at ASU 20, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.3%−1.7
    75% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−7.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:22ASU 4th & 1 at DUKE 39, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    71.8%−5.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−4.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:33DUKE 4th & 11 at midfield, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.2%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:03DUKE 4th & 2 at ASU 12, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    25.4%−2.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−13.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:50ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:31ASU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:45ASU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    75.4%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 2 yds · 2:3226% → 27%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
26.1%
Jamison Crowder run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
26.4%
Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
26.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
26.9%
Boone, Anthony pass incomplete to Crowder, Jamison, PENALTY DUKE holding (Snead, Josh) 10 yards to the DUKE27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 20
OWN 27
0
26.9%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Issac BlakeneySimilar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+5
26.9%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 5 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 15
OWN 32
0
27.1%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 15
OWN 32
-5
27.1%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Dwayne Norman) to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 20
OWN 27
0
27.2%
Will Monday punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:2773% → 74%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
27.1%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 14 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
27.2%
Taylor Kelly run for 16 yds to the Duke 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
27.3%
Taylor Kelly sacked by Jamal Bruce for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+11
27.4%
D.J. Foster run for 11 yds to the Duke 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
26.4%
Demario Richard run for 9 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1327% → 27%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
26.9%
Josh Snead run for no gain to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
27.0%
Josh Snead run for 2 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
26.9%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q1 9:22
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
26.8%
Will Monday punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Kyle Middlebrooks at the ArzSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4FG
7 plays · 68 yds · 1:3873% → 73%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
27.1%
Taylor Kelly run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+12
27.0%
D.J. Foster run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+49
26.8%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 49 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
26.5%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 5 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
26.5%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+1
26.6%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Demario Richard for 1 yd to the Duke 11Similar
Q1 7:39
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+28
26.6%
Zane Gonzalez 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 4:2727% → 29%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
27.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+11
27.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 11 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
27.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
27.8%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Issac BlakeneySimilar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+11
27.7%
Anthony Boone run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
28.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+8
28.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
29.0%
Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-1
28.4%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Max McCaffrey for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
27.9%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+40
29.0%
Ross Martin 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 4:5772% → 72%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.0%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
27.9%
D.J. Foster run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
27.7%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+7
27.2%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to De'Marieya Nelson for 7 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
27.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 6 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+6
27.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 6 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
27.1%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Kody Kohl for 19 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
26.9%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
27.0%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 3 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+11
27.2%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 11 yds to the Duke 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
26.9%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the Duke 6Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
27.0%
Taylor Kelly run for 2 yds to the Duke 4Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-17
27.3%
Taylor Kelly sacked by DeVon Edwards for a loss of 17 yards to the Duke 21 Taylor Kelly fumbled, forced by DeVon Edwards, recovered by ArzSt Nick Kelly , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 0
OPP 21
+38
27.7%
Zane Gonzalez 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5527% → 26%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
26.6%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
26.2%
Anthony Boone run for no gain to the Duke 29Similar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
25.6%
Will Monday punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:1573% → 83%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
27.3%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 2 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+8
26.8%
Demario Richard run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
26.4%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Ellis Jefferson for 7 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+14
26.4%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Gary Chambers for 14 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
26.3%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
26.3%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+11
26.7%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 11 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
26.4%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+7
26.4%
D.J. Foster run for 7 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 1
OPP 12
0
26.7%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the Duke 12Similar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+11
25.7%
Taylor Kelly run for 11 yds to the Duke 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.3%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:3420% → 28%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
19.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+32
19.7%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 32 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
20.9%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Issac BlakeneySimilar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
20.7%
Shaquille Powell run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+15
20.6%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 15 yds to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
21.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+5
20.7%
Shaquille Powell run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+14
27.7%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 14 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:4374% → 64%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
26.1%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
26.2%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 2 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+5
26.3%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 5 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+68
35.7%
Matt Haack punt for 43 yds , Jamison Crowder returns for 68 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11DOWNS
9 plays · 11 yds · 1:4365% → 64%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
34.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Tyler Sulka) to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+12
34.7%
Taylor Kelly run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+10
33.0%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 10 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
31.3%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Demario Richard for 3 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-9
31.5%
Taylor Kelly sacked by Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo for a loss of 9 yards to the ArzSt 34 Taylor Kelly fumbled, forced by Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo, recovered by ArzSt Taylor Kelly , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 16
OWN 34
0
34.6%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
36.4%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4566% → 78%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.7%
Demario Richard run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+28
32.7%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 28 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
31.6%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 4
OPP 32
-5
30.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Tyler Sulka) to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+5
31.7%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+3
32.0%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Demario Richard for 3 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+7
33.9%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 7 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
31.2%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 11 yds to the Duke 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
21.6%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Demario Richard for 11 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13FUMBLE
14 plays · 65 yds · 5:4823% → 22%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
22.9%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 11 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
23.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 9 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
24.4%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
50
0
24.5%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Shaquille PowellSimilar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 10
50
0
24.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 10
50
+14
23.1%
Anthony Boone run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
24.7%
Shaquille Powell run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
26.0%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+3
24.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
24.6%
Anthony Boone run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 9
OPP 23
-5
24.6%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Matt Skura) to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 14
OPP 28
0
23.8%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Shaquille PowellSimilar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+29
21.9%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 21 yds Issac Blakeney fumbled, forced by Kweishi Brown, recovered by ArzSt Jordan Simone , return for 29 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:3580% → 87%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
19.6%
Kelly, Taylor pass incomplete to Strong, Jaelen, PENALTY DUKE pass interference (Fields, Bryon) 15 yards to the DUKE49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
18.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
18.4%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+10
18.7%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 10 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
18.2%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
17.5%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+3
18.4%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Kody Kohl for 3 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 2:23
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+47
12.8%
Zane Gonzalez 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15TD
16 plays · 69 yds · 7:0017% → 36%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
16.8%
Shaquille Powell run for 5 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
17.1%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+1
16.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 1 yd to the Duke 40Similar
Q3 0:39
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+4
16.1%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
16.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
18.2%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+5
17.0%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
17.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+14
16.7%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 14 yds to the ArzSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
18.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+6
18.5%
Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
17.2%
Anthony Boone run for no gain to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+3
16.7%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
18.4%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
35.9%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 14 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:4177% → 78%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
22.7%
D.J. Foster run for 27 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
19.7%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
19.7%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to De'Marieya NelsonSimilar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+9
20.4%
Taylor Kelly run for 9 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 9:22
4TH & 1
OPP 39
-1
22.2%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD
13 plays · 60 yds · 4:1032% → 63%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
32.0%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
32.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+6
31.5%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 6 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
33.0%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison Crowder, broken up by Lloyd CarringtonSimilar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-1
32.4%
Shaquille Powell run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 11
50
0
28.0%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 11
50
+30
25.0%
Will Monday pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 30 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
34.2%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
34.2%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 2 yds to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+6
30.9%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 6 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q4 5:03
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+12
63.2%
Jamison Crowder pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 12 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q4 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
13.8%
Demario Richard 4 Yd pass from Taylor Kelly (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19INT
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:4826% → 22%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
26.0%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
24.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+43
24.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 43 yds to the ArzSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
34.0%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+3
33.0%
Anthony Boone run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+4
28.7%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
30.6%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Shaquille PowellSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
30.7%
Shaquille Powell run for no gain to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
21.5%
Anthony Boone pass intercepted, touchback. Kweishi Brown return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20END OF GAME
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0693% → 93%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
6.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-2
6.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 14
OWN 16
-2
6.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:45
Demario Richard 4 Yd pass from Taylor Kelly (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-45.2
TD · Q4 5:03
Jamison Crowder pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 12 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)
+37.9
TD · Q4 10:10
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 14 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)
+17.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com