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BC

Boston College 30 at Penn State 31

PSU
2014 · New Era Pinstripe Bowl · Dec 27, 2014 · Yankee Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:00 · Daniel Pasquariello punt for 38 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingTime remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 25Home team on offense+0.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 6:48: Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 16 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK) — PSU win probability +30.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 2:10: Mike Knoll 20 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +23.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 0:20: Sam Ficken 45 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +25.4 pts (now 60%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Tyler Murphy pass complete to David Dudeck for 21 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll PAT MISSED) — BC win probability +30.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 10 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK) — PSU win probability +56.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7BC made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:40PSU 4th & 16 at BC 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:14BC 4th & 10 at BC 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:00PSU 4th & 11 at BC 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    46.5%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:23BC 4th & 4 at PSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    53.3%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    53.0%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:28BC 4th & 7 at PSU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    50.7%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:28PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:22BC 4th & 9 at BC 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:14PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:16BC 4th & 10 at BC 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:30PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:36BC 4th & 1 at PSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    52.5%−1.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    51.8%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:02BC 4th & 3 at PSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    50.5%−1.0
    64% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−8.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:21BC 4th & 14 at BC 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−4.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:38PSU 4th & 6 at BC 37, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%−2.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%−2.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:32BC 4th & 3 at BC 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−1.5
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:10BC 4th & 2 at PSU 3, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 8.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%−8.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−39.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:20PSU 4th & 2 at BC 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−7.0
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−24.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:22PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:39BC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:07BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:12BC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:00PSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:48PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 3:0050% → 50%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
49.9%
Bill Belton run for 6 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
50.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 5 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
50.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for 7 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+7
50.3%
Akeel Lynch run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
50
+11
50.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 11 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
50.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-1
50.7%
Saeed Blacknall run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 40Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 11
OPP 40
-5
50.5%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 45Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 16
OPP 45
0
50.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 16
OPP 45
0
50.2%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 29 yds , Sherman Alston returns for no gain to the BC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1950% → 49%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
50.4%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 11Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+5
50.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
50.7%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Shakim PhillipsSimilar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 10
OWN 16
0
50.9%
Alex Howell punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:0351% → 51%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
50.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+15
50.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 15 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
51.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 9 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+5
51.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
51.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 4 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-5
51.8%
PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the BC 38Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
51.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 11
OPP 38
0
51.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q1 8:00
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
50.8%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:2649% → 50%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+44
50.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 44 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
49.8%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Shakim PhillipsSimilar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
49.8%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Sherman AlstonSimilar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+6
50.1%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Sherman Alston for 6 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 4
OPP 30
0
50.5%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Josh BordnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:4851% → 54%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
51.1%
Bill Belton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
51.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-5
50.8%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+72
54.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 72 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 0:2646% → 50%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
54.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+49
49.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 49 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7FUMBLE
11 plays · 43 yds · 4:2451% → 54%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
51.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 9 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
52.6%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
52.7%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Brian Mihalik for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+13
52.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 13 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+3
52.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 3 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
53.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
53.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for 7 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 3
OPP 27
-1
54.2%
Bill Belton run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 28Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+7
53.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 7 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
54.2%
Christian Hackenberg run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 22 Christian Hackenberg fumbled, recovered by BCSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:0249% → 49%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
51.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the BC 23Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+5
51.1%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the BC 28Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+3
50.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
50.6%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
50.6%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 5 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+14
49.7%
Tyler Murphy run for 14 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
49.1%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Charlie CallinanSimilar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
49.4%
Myles Willis run for 3 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
49.4%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Sherman AlstonSimilar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
50.8%
Alex Howell punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:5353% → 52%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
52.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 10 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.0%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
53.1%
Akeel Lynch run for 6 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
53.4%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
52.2%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5649% → 48%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
50.7%
Tyler Murphy run for 2 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+4
49.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-5
49.9%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the BC 29Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
51.0%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Sherman AlstonSimilar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
51.9%
Alex Howell punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0154% → 51%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
53.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-8
53.2%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Malachi Moore for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 20Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 18
OWN 20
+5
51.9%
Christian Hackenberg run for 5 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
51.3%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4951% → 48%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
49.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the BC 38Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-15
48.9%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the BC 23Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 24
OWN 23
+10
50.7%
Myles Willis run for 10 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+4
51.5%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 4 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+2
51.7%
Alex Howell punt for 32 yds , Jesse Della Valle returns for 2 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3254% → 52%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
54.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for no gain to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
53.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 5 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
54.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 5
OWN 38
-5
52.6%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 10
OWN 33
+24
51.5%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 42 yds , Sherman Alston returns for 24 yds to the BC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14END OF HALF
12 plays · 8 yds · 1:1453% → 51%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
46.9%
Tyler Murphy run for 2 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+3
46.9%
Myles Willis run for 3 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+4
48.0%
Tyler Murphy run for 4 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
48.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
46.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
46.6%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+4
48.7%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 4 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 41
-2
49.4%
Marcus Outlow run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 6:1751% → 68%
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
48.8%
Tyler Murphy run for 14 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
47.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
47.1%
Tyler Murphy run for no gain to the PnSt 40Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+7
48.2%
Marcus Outlow run for 7 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
46.7%
Marcus Outlow run for 3 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+2
46.3%
Marcus Outlow run for 2 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+2
47.7%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 2 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+8
50.2%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Shakim Phillips for 8 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
46.3%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 20Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+1
46.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the PnSt 19Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+19
31.6%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Shakim Phillips for 19 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16FUMBLE
15 plays · 44 yds · 3:4136% → 38%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
36.3%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the PnSt 20Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+5
36.1%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the PnSt 25Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+5
36.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 5 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
36.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+8
36.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Akeel Lynch for 8 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-5
38.2%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 34Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+12
35.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 12 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
38.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 6 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+8
39.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 8 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
39.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
39.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 11 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
40.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
40.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-8
38.2%
Christian Hackenberg run for a loss of 8 yards to the BC 37 Christian Hackenberg fumbled, recovered by BCSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:4770% → 87%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
30.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 8 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+12
28.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 12 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
27.5%
Myles Willis run for 3 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+40
13.3%
Tyler Murphy run for 40 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:5817% → 36%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
17.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 1 yd to the PnSt 38Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
17.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Bill BeltonSimilar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+47
17.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 32 yds to the PENNST 30 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the BC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
19.1%
Christian Hackenberg run for 4 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q3 0:03
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+4
18.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 4 yds to the BC 7Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+7
35.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 7 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 2:1473% → 72%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-10
26.8%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BC 9Similar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 20
OWN 9
0
27.2%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the BC 9Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 20
OWN 9
+1
27.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the BC 10Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 19
OWN 10
+5
27.4%
Marcus Outlow run for 5 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 14
OWN 15
0
28.3%
Alex Howell punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:3632% → 30%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
32.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
30.7%
Christian Hackenberg run for 8 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+6
33.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 6 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
34.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 4 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
34.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
33.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
30.1%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 22 yds, downed at the BC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5875% → 77%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
24.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the BC 16Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-6
22.3%
Tyler Murphy sacked by Jordan Lucas for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 10Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 15
OWN 10
+12
22.7%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 12 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
23.1%
Alex Howell punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:3229% → 63%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
29.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 9 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+1
31.6%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
31.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 9 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q4 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-15
32.7%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the BC 1 PENN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the BC 16Similar
Q4 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+16
63.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 16 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 4:0451% → 83%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
49.5%
Tyler Murphy run for 3 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
48.8%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Shakim PhillipsSimilar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+13
51.1%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Shakim Phillips for 13 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
45.6%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 43Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+26
47.2%
Tyler Murphy run for 26 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
42.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+17
41.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 7 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (10 Yards) to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
41.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
38.9%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the PnSt 9Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+6
40.6%
Tyler Murphy run for 6 yds to the PnSt 3Similar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+20
17.2%
Mike Knoll 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 1:3529% → 60%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
29.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 6 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+7
31.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 7 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
30.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Akeel Lynch for 3 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+25
30.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 25 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
33.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Akeel Lynch for 1 yd to the BC 34Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+6
33.3%
Christian Hackenberg run for 6 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+1
34.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the BC 27Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+45
59.9%
Sam Ficken 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
48.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 90%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
40.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the PnSt 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+3
40.5%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 3 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+21
10.1%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to David Dudeck for 21 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0026% → 83%
OT 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
0
26.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
24.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+17
22.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 17 yds to the BC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
31.5%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 15Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+5
27.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 5 yds to the BC 10Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
83.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 10 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 10 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)
+56.2
TD · Q4 6:48
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 16 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)
+30.6
TD · OT 0:00
Tyler Murphy pass complete to David Dudeck for 21 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll PAT MISSED)
-30.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com