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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreOU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:21 · Ammon Lakip 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 13:26: Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 65 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:25: Trevor Knight pass intercepted for a TD Ben Boulware return for 47 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +8.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 14:00: Ammon Lakip 49 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +4.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:34: Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 26 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +13.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:24: Cole Stoudt run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 9 of 11OU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 13:38OU 4th & 6 at OU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snapGo for it63.5%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.5%average punt
- Q1 11:59OU 4th & 22 at OU 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snapGo for it61.5%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.7%average punt
- Q1 8:21CLEM 4th & 9 at OU 17, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.2% before the snapGo for it40.9%−0.229% to convertField goalTheir call41.1%80% to makePunt39.8%−1.3average punt
- Q1 4:33CLEM 4th & 15 at OU 25, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snapGo for it43.6%−1.016% to convertField goalTheir call44.6%66% to makePunt40.9%−3.6average punt
- Q1 1:36OU 4th & 10 at OU 37, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snapGo for it44.6%−1.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.0%average punt
- Q2 14:00CLEM 4th & 8 at OU 32, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snapGo for it60.0%−0.234% to convertField goalTheir call60.2%51% to makePunt59.1%−1.1average punt
- Q2 12:43OU 4th & 7 at OU 28, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snapGo for it30.6%−0.936% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.5%average punt
- Q2 4:14OU 4th & 11 at OU 30, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it5.5%−1.625% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.0%average punt
- Q2 2:45CLEM 4th & 13 at CLEM 15, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snapGo for it90.1%−3.019% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.1%average punt
- Q2 0:43CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 40, up 27Close callPunted · 94.1% before the snapGo for it94.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.6%−0.5average punt
- Q3 12:41CLEM 4th & 12 at OU 35, up 27Close callPunted · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.8%−0.624% to convertField goal97.4%45% to makePuntTheir call96.7%−0.7average punt
- Q3 10:57OU 4th & 11 at OU 9, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.1%−1.124% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q3 7:49OU 4th & 1 at OU 23, down 34Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:27CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 28, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%average punt
- Q3 6:00OU 4th & 10 at OU 28, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q4 14:02CLEM 4th & 13 at OU 48, up 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 9:53OU 4th & 10 at OU 45, down 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:35CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 2, up 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 3:51CLEM 4th & 16 at CLEM 33, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 2:11CLEM 4th & 13 at CLEM 36, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5OU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 13:26CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.1%97% to makeGo for two37.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:25CLEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.1%97% to makeGo for two50.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:34CLEM Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.8%97% to makeGo for two85.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 9:24CLEM Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:42CLEM Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:57OU Touchdown, down 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1067% → 66%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2TD1 play · 65 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
34.3%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 65 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 0:4965% → 64%
CLEMDrive 4FG10 plays · 37 yds · 3:1936% → 39%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
35.9%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 11 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
36.2%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 2 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 5
OPP 13
-9
38.4%
Cole Stoudt sacked by Ogbonnia Okoronkwo for a loss of 9 yards to the Okla 22Similar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 14
OPP 22
+5
38.1%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Zack Sanchez) to the Okla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5INT7 plays · 9 yds · 1:4762% → 60%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.4%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Michiah Quick for 6 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
38.6%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Michiah Quick for 5 yds to the Okla 42Similar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
38.9%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Sterling Shepard) to the Okla 34Similar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 25
OWN 34
+7
39.8%
Trevor Knight pass intercepted Korrin Wiggins return for 7 yds to the Okla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6MISSED FG4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3541% → 42%
Q1 4:55
3RD & 6
OPP 16
-9
42.4%
Cole Stoudt sacked by Eric Striker for a loss of 9 yards to the Okla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7INT TD3 plays · 3 yds · 1:0259% → 51%
Q1 3:25
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+47
49.1%
Trevor Knight pass intercepted for a TD Ben Boulware return for 47 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:3851% → 48%
Q1 2:44
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+13
50.4%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 13 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9FG9 plays · 48 yds · 2:2554% → 63%
Q1 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+18
54.4%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Charone Peake for 18 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
55.3%
Wayne Gallman run for 1 yd to the Okla 39 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Charles Tapper) to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
56.2%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 9 yds to the Okla 37Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+3
56.8%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 3 yds to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
57.0%
Cole Stoudt pass incomplete to Mike Williams, broken up by Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
58.5%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 2 yds to the Okla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0535% → 33%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
64.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Alex Ross for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 24Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+4
66.4%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Durron Neal for 4 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+4
67.1%
Jed Barnett punt for 56 yds , Adam Humphries returns for 4 yds to the Clem 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11TD15 plays · 80 yds · 5:0066% → 89%
Q2 12:11
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
68.7%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Adam Humphries for 6 yds to the Clem 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
69.5%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 6 yds to the Clem 37Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+11
70.0%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 11 yds to the Clem 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
71.8%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 8 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-1
71.9%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 45Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+4
72.1%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Adam Humphries for 4 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-2
74.4%
Cole Stoudt sacked by Charles Walker and Jordan Wade for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 41Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+7
74.7%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Adam Humphries for 7 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q2 8:20
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+5
74.2%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Okla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
75.8%
Cole Stoudt pass incomplete to Germone Hopper, broken up by Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+26
88.5%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 26 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 2:5712% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1892% → 93%
Q2 2:49
3RD & 8
OWN 20
-5
93.3%
Cole Stoudt sacked by Eric Striker and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14FUMBLE4 plays · 20 yds · 0:514% → 4%
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-7
95.9%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 7 yards to the Clem 31 Samaje Perine fumbled, forced by Grady Jarrett, recovered by Clem Ben BoulwareSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3095% → 94%
Q2 0:58
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+7
95.2%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 7 yds to the Clem 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · 6 yds · 0:004% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 40 yds · 2:0896% → 97%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
96.8%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Adam Humphries for 6 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+22
97.0%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Charone Peake for 22 yds to the Okla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
97.2%
Cole Stoudt pass incomplete to Artavis Scott, broken up by Eric StrikerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:293% → 2%
Q3 11:47
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+1
97.6%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Samaje Perine for 1 yd to the Okla 9Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 11
OWN 9
0
97.9%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Blake Bell, broken up by Vic BeasleySimilar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 11
OWN 9
0
97.9%
Jed Barnett punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19TD6 plays · 50 yds · 1:2198% → 99%
Q3 10:22
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+15
98.0%
Stoudt, Cole pass incomplete to Williams, Mike, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference (Sanchez, Zack) 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON. Similar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
98.2%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 10 yds to the Okla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:232% → 1%
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
98.5%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 4 yds to the Okla 18Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+5
98.6%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Michiah Quick for 5 yds to the Okla 23Similar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 1
OWN 23
-2
98.9%
Jed Barnett punt for 52 yds , Adam Humphries returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1699% → 99%
Q3 6:27
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
99.0%
Bradley Pinion punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zack Sanchez at the Okla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:211% → 1%
CLEMDrive 23TD12 plays · 80 yds · 4:0699% → 100%
Q3 4:55
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+31
99.2%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 31 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.3%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Adam Humphries for 5 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+14
99.4%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 14 yds to the Okla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+24
99.6%
Germone Hopper 24 Yd pass from Cole Stoudt (Ammon Lakip PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24FUMBLE8 plays · 32 yds · 1:291% → 0%
Q3 1:42
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+15
99.5%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Durron Neal for 1 yd to the Okla 26Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
99.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 13 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
99.6%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Michiah Quick for 6 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+4
99.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Michiah Quick for 4 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
99.7%
Keith Ford run for 8 yds to the Okla 45 Keith Ford fumbled, forced by Josh Watson, recovered by Clem Jayron Kearse , return for 12 yds to the Okla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:05100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26PUNT12 plays · 41 yds · 3:550% → 0%
Q4 12:36
3RD & 6
OWN 8
+11
99.8%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Michiah Quick for 11 yds to the Okla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+16
99.8%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Samaje Perine for 16 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Samaje Perine for 5 yds to the Okla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
OUDrive 28TD6 plays · 43 yds · 1:290% → 0%
CLEMDrive 29PUNT8 plays · 7 yds · 2:52100% → 100%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
99.9%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 13 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
Nick Schuessler run for a loss of 7 yards to the Clem 33 Nick Schuessler fumbled, recovered by Clem Daniel Rodriguez Daniel Rodriguez run for 3 yds to the Clem 33Similar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 16
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Bradley Pinion punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Zack Sanchez at the Okla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 30INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
99.9%
Trevor Knight pass intercepted T.J. Green return for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 31PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q4 2:11
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Andy Teasdall punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zack Sanchez at the Okla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 32END OF GAME5 plays · 56 yds · 2:050% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:34
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 26 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)
+13.8
TD · Q1 3:25
Trevor Knight pass intercepted for a TD Ben Boulware return for 47 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)
+8.3
FG · Q2 14:00
Ammon Lakip 49 yd FG GOOD
+4.7