Try the model
CIN

Cincinnati 17 at Virginia Tech 33

VT
2014 · Military Bowl · Dec 27, 2014 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:43 · Andrew Gantz 51 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Pregame prior−4.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:51: J.C. Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +3.6 pts (now 49%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:36: Andrew Gantz 25 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +7.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Joey Slye 49 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +3.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:05: Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +11.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:35: Michael Colosimo pass complete to Chris Moore for 43 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +9.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:43CIN 4th & 8 at VT 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:43VT 4th & 11 at VT 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:23CIN 4th & 4 at VT 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    54.8%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:53VT 4th & 5 at VT 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:55VT 4th & 16 at CIN 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:00CIN 4th & 15 at CIN 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:59VT 4th & 13 at VT 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:36CIN 4th & 6 at VT 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−7.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:54CIN 4th & 9 at VT 38, down 17
    Close callPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    13.1%−0.4
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:31VT 4th & 4 at VT 39, up 17
    Close callPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:47CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:20VT 4th & 11 at CIN 19, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−4.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:52VT 4th & 6 at CIN 15, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−5.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:33CIN 4th & 22 at CIN 36, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:32VT 4th & 12 at VT 18, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:52CIN 4th & 3 at VT 23, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CIN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 5:47CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:51VT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:05VT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:35CIN Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1MISSED FG
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:0254% → 54%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
45.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 40 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
45.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
45.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 2 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
45.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q1 13:43
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+51
46.0%
Andrew Gantz 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5646% → 46%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
46.1%
Brewer, Michael pass incomplete to Hodges, Bucky, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Luc, Jeff) 4 yards to the VATECH37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
46.2%
J.C. Coleman run for 2 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
46.3%
J.C. Coleman run for 5 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-8
46.5%
Michael Brewer sacked by Terrell Hartsfield for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 36Similar
Q1 11:43
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
46.3%
A.J. Hughes punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3INT
5 plays · 44 yds · 2:0254% → 54%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
46.5%
Rod Moore run for 3 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+23
46.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 23 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
46.2%
Gunner Kiel run for 16 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
46.2%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
46.3%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted, touchback. Kendall Fuller return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4INT
3 plays · 37 yds · 0:4847% → 48%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+35
47.1%
J.C. Coleman run for 35 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
47.9%
Trey Edmunds run for 2 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
47.9%
Michael Brewer pass intercepted Zach Edwards return for no gain to the Cincy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 2:4253% → 57%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+25
47.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mike Boone for 25 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
47.0%
Gunner Kiel run for 1 yd to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+7
47.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 7 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+21
46.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 21 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
46.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
46.4%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+31
43.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 31 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 1:4445% → 49%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+30
45.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 15 yds to the VATECH 49 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Roughing Passer (Brandon Mitchell) to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
45.7%
Bucky Hodges run for 2 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+30
45.8%
Isaiah Ford pass complete to Michael Brewer for 30 yds to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
45.8%
J.C. Coleman run for 1 yd to the Cincy 1Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
45.8%
J.C. Coleman run for no gain to the Cincy 1Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.3%
J.C. Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:1852% → 52%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
48.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Casey Gladney for 24 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
47.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Rod Moore for 6 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
46.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
46.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
47.6%
Sam Geraci punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2149% → 49%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
49.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 1 yd to the VTech 21Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
49.5%
Bucky Hodges run for 4 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
49.4%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Ryan MalleckSimilar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
48.8%
A.J. Hughes punt for 40 yds , Max Morrison returns for no gain to the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
48.2%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted Chuck Clark return for 13 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10FG
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:3252% → 51%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
51.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 19 yds to the Cincy 18 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 1
OPP 28
-13
52.2%
Greg Stroman run for a loss of 13 yards to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+6
51.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Greg Stroman for 6 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+14
51.8%
Brewer, Michael pass incomplete to Hodges, Bucky, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Edwards, Zach) 14 yards to the CINCINNATI21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
52.6%
J.C. Coleman run for 3 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
52.8%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 7
OPP 18
-9
52.4%
Michael Brewer sacked by Brad Harrah for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 27Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 16
OPP 27
+45
51.1%
Joey Slye 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:4448% → 46%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
52.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+16
52.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 16 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
50.9%
Rod Moore run for 5 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-5
50.6%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Ken Ekanem for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-5
52.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Tyreek Burwell) to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 15
OWN 37
0
53.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Casey GladneySimilar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 15
OWN 37
-6
53.8%
Sam Geraci punt for 41 yds , Greg Stroman returns for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 3:5153% → 54%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
52.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 5 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 5
OWN 21
-5
52.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Encroachment (Cam Phillips) to the VTech 16Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+8
52.5%
Sam Rogers run for 8 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+7
52.5%
Sam Rogers run for 7 yds to the VTech 31 Sam Rogers fumbled, forced by Brad Harrah, recovered by VTechSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
53.5%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
53.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 2 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+13
53.0%
Michael Brewer run for 13 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
56.3%
Michael Brewer sacked by Kevin Brown for a loss of 10 yards to the VTech 36Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 20
OWN 36
+7
54.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 7 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 13
OWN 43
0
54.5%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
53.9%
A.J. Hughes punt for 50 yds , Shaq Washington returns for no gain to the Cincy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13FG
14 plays · 86 yds · 6:0945% → 53%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
55.1%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the Cincy 12Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+2
54.6%
Gunner Kiel run for 2 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+9
55.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 9 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+31
54.8%
Mike Boone run for 31 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
52.2%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the VTech 46Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+23
52.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 23 yds to the VTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
51.5%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the VTech 20Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+2
51.7%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the VTech 18Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+6
52.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 6 yds to the VTech 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
50.9%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the VTech 8Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+1
51.0%
Gunner Kiel run for 1 yd to the VTech 7Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
54.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+25
47.3%
Andrew Gantz 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:3056% → 60%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
56.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 17 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
58.2%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
58.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 3 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+49
59.9%
Joey Slye 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5056% → 74%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
56.1%
J.C. Coleman run for 9 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
59.1%
J.C. Coleman run for 5 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
59.0%
J.C. Coleman run for 26 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
61.5%
J.C. Coleman run for 3 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+17
61.7%
Greg Stroman run for 17 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
61.7%
Brenden Motley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 16Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 11
OPP 16
0
61.8%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+12
60.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 12 yds to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
62.1%
Sam Rogers run for 3 yds to the Cincy 1Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.2%
Sam Rogers run for no gain to the Cincy 1Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:5529% → 29%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
71.1%
Rod Moore run for 3 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
71.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+11
72.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 11 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
71.2%
Rod Moore run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:0615% → 13%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
84.8%
Shaq Washington run for 3 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+31
84.6%
Shaq Washington pass complete to Mekale McKay for 31 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
84.1%
Shaq Washington run for 1 yd to the VTech 38Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
84.5%
Shaq Washington run for no gain to the VTech 38Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
86.6%
Michael Colosimo pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
87.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 34 yds, downed at the VTech 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 4:0989% → 91%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
89.1%
J.C. Coleman run for 9 yds to the VTech 13Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 1
OWN 13
+7
89.5%
J.C. Coleman run for 7 yds to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
89.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 2 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
90.0%
J.C. Coleman run for 5 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+6
90.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 6 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
90.9%
Trey Edmunds run for 5 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+3
91.6%
Trey Edmunds run for 3 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 2
OWN 41
-2
91.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Trey Edmunds for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 39Similar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
91.4%
A.J. Hughes punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:339% → 8%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
90.8%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
91.4%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
92.3%
Michael Colosimo pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q3 0:47
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+37
92.5%
Sam Geraci punt for 48 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 37 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2193% → 98%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
93.3%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ryan Malleck) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 20
50
+3
93.2%
J.C. Coleman run for 3 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+29
93.6%
J.C. Coleman run for 29 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
94.4%
J.C. Coleman run for no gain to the Cincy 18Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-1
95.0%
J.C. Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 19Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 11
OPP 19
0
95.0%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+38
97.9%
Joey Slye 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:352% → 11%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
98.1%
Rod Moore run for no gain to the Cincy 19Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
98.2%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+9
98.4%
Michael Colosimo run for 9 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
98.3%
Rod Moore run for 4 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
98.3%
Michael Colosimo pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+23
98.4%
Michael Colosimo pass complete to Chris Moore for 23 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
89.1%
Michael Colosimo pass complete to Chris Moore for 43 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:3394% → 95%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
93.7%
J.C. Coleman run for 2 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+21
93.7%
Michael Brewer run for 31 yds to the Cincy 9 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
93.8%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
93.9%
J.C. Coleman run for 4 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
94.0%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+33
94.9%
Joey Slye 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:566% → 5%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
94.3%
Shaq Washington run for 9 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+16
94.0%
Michael Colosimo run for 16 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
94.0%
Michael Colosimo pass complete to Mekale McKay for 4 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-1
94.1%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 49Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
94.4%
Michael Colosimo pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 7
OPP 49
-15
94.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Johnny Holton) to the Cincy 36Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 22
OWN 36
+43
95.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 43 yds , Greg Stroman returns for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:5396% → 97%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
96.0%
J.C. Coleman run for 2 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-5
96.4%
J.C. Coleman run for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 17Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+1
96.5%
Trey Edmunds run for 1 yd to the VTech 18Similar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
96.8%
A.J. Hughes punt for 32 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:353% → 3%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
50
0
96.9%
Michael Colosimo pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 10
50
+20
97.0%
Michael Colosimo run for 20 yds to the VTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
96.6%
Michael Colosimo pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
96.7%
Michael Colosimo run for 9 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 1
OPP 21
-2
96.8%
Rod Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 23Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 3
OPP 23
0
97.0%
Michael Colosimo pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 2:0298% → 99%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
97.9%
J.C. Coleman run for 6 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+3
98.4%
J.C. Coleman run for 3 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
98.5%
J.C. Coleman run for 3 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:05
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+11.3
TD · Q4 10:35
Michael Colosimo pass complete to Chris Moore for 43 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
-9.3
FG · Q2 0:36
Andrew Gantz 25 yd FG GOOD
-7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com