Try the model
USU

Utah State 21 at UTEP 6

UTEP
2014 · Gildan New Mexico Bowl · Dec 20, 2014 · University Stadium (NM)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:48 · Jay Mattox punt for 41 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Pregame prior−18.0Home team on offense−0.9Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:21: Nathan Jeffery run for 8 yds to the UthSt 16 — UTEP win probability +5.1 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:22: Butler, Ronald pass incomplete to Sharp, Hunter, PENALTY UTEP pass interference (Payne, Damian) 15 yards to the UTEP14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST. — USU win probability +4.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Jay Mattox kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — UTEP win probability +6.6 pts (now 33%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:12: Nick Vigil run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK) — USU win probability +10.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:02: Jay Mattox 34 yd FG GOOD — UTEP win probability +7.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 6 of 13USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:01UTEP 4th & 2 at UTEP 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:00USU 4th & 1 at USU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:10UTEP 4th & 3 at USU 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.8%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:34UTEP 4th & 3 at UTEP 29, down 4
    Close callPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:43USU 4th & 11 at USU 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:48UTEP 4th & 10 at USU 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    30.8%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:49UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:43UTEP 4th & 4 at USU 8, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%−0.3
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    34.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−6.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:50UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 48, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:55USU 4th & 8 at USU 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:45USU 4th & 14 at USU 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−2.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:14UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:54USU 4th & 7 at UTEP 39, up 11
    Close callPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    82.8%−0.8
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:21UTEP 4th & 3 at UTEP 10, down 11
    Close callPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:58USU 4th & 14 at UTEP 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−1.8
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−5.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:12UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.9%−2.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:36UTEP 4th & 2 at USU 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−2.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−3.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:02UTEP 4th & 6 at USU 16, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.8%−0.9
    81% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−2.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:49UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 29, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 1:52USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:12USU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:33USU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:5224% → 26%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.4%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Aaron Jones for 3 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
24.6%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
24.9%
Jameill Showers run for 4 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
25.4%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the UTEP 37Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+5
25.6%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Darrin Laufasa for 5 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+2
26.1%
Nathan Jeffery run for 2 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 2
OWN 44
-4
26.3%
Jay Mattox punt for 48 yds , JoJo Natson returns for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:5574% → 72%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
26.3%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the UthSt 7Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+12
26.6%
Kent Myers run for 12 yds to the UthSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
26.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 6 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+3
26.9%
Kent Myers run for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+1
27.1%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
27.2%
LaJuan Hunt run for 7 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 3
OWN 36
-3
27.4%
Kent Myers sacked by Nick Usher for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 33Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+5
27.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 5 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+1
28.0%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 37 yds , Damian Payne returns for 1 yd to the UTEP 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:5028% → 32%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
28.2%
UTEP Penalty, False Start (Chris Thomas) to the UTEP 21Similar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+4
28.2%
Josh Bell run for 4 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+1
28.5%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the UTEP 26Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+53
28.5%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Ian Hamilton for 53 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
30.3%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the UthSt 20Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+3
30.8%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+3
31.3%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Josh Bell for 3 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+32
32.2%
Jay Mattox 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1168% → 72%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.0%
Joe Hill run for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
31.7%
UTAH ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (Joe Hill) to the UthSt 25Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
32.2%
Nick Vigil run for 12 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Maurice Chavis) to the UTEP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
28.1%
Kent Myers run for 48 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:0429% → 30%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
29.1%
Aaron Jones run for 9 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 1
OWN 20
-2
29.6%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 18Similar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+4
29.1%
Jameill Showers run for 4 yds to the UTEP 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
29.9%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Aaron JonesSimilar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
29.8%
Nathan Jeffery run for 1 yd to the UTEP 23Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+6
29.6%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Eric Tomlinson for 6 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+16
29.8%
Jay Mattox punt for 54 yds , JoJo Natson returns for 16 yds to the UthSt 45 UTAH ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Tyler Floyd) to the UthSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3370% → 68%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
30.5%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 21Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 12
OWN 21
0
30.6%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Wyatt HoustonSimilar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+1
31.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to JoJo Natson for 1 yd to the UthSt 22Similar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 11
OWN 22
+8
31.9%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 38 yds , Damian Payne returns for 8 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:4733% → 32%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
32.8%
Aaron Jones run for 5 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
33.6%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
33.6%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
33.7%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
34.0%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Ian Hamilton, broken up by Brian SuiteSimilar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 8
OPP 39
-2
33.6%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Aaron Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
31.9%
Jay Mattox punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:0268% → 69%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
31.9%
Kent Myers run for 6 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
30.6%
Nick Vigil run for 6 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
30.6%
Kent Myers pass intercepted Damian Payne return for no gain to the UTEP 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:3433% → 31%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
32.6%
Jameill Showers sacked by John Taylor for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 38Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 15
OWN 38
-5
31.3%
UTEP Penalty, False Start (Katrae Ford) to the UTEP 33Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+11
30.9%
Aaron Jones run for 11 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
31.4%
Jameill Showers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
30.7%
Jay Mattox punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1169% → 70%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
31.1%
Joe Hill run for 6 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 4
OWN 22
0
30.7%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+10
31.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 10 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
30.5%
Kent Myers sacked by Adrian James for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 24 Kent Myers fumbled, forced by Adrian James, recovered by UTEP Alvin Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:3836% → 33%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
35.6%
Nathan Jeffery run for 8 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+2
35.9%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the UthSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
36.2%
Ziere Banner run for 9 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 1
OPP 5
-10
36.2%
Jones, Aaron rush for 1 yard to the UTAHST4, PENALTY UTEP holding (Thomas, Chris) 10 yards to the UTAHST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 11
OPP 15
-2
36.7%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 17Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+9
34.8%
Josh Bell run for 9 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 4
OPP 8
-2
32.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 79 yds · 0:3169% → 73%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+61
31.0%
Ronald Butler run for 61 yds to the UTEP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
26.7%
Butler, Ronald pass incomplete to Sharp, Hunter, PENALTY UTEP pass interference (Payne, Damian) 15 yards to the UTEP14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST.Similar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
26.7%
Butler, Ronald rush for 14 yards to the UTEP0, PENALTY UTAHST illegal formation 5 yards to the UTEP19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+8
27.1%
Ronald Butler run for 8 yds to the UTEP 11Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
27.2%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+28
26.8%
Nick Diaz 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3968% → 80%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.6%
LaJuan Hunt run for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
31.0%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Devonte RobinsonSimilar
Q3 14:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+46
32.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to JoJo Natson for 46 yds to the UTEP 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
28.6%
Nick Vigil run for 4 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+3
28.6%
Kent Myers run for 3 yds to the UTEP 17Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+14
29.9%
Kent Myers run for 14 yds to the UTEP 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
19.8%
Nick Vigil run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:1221% → 21%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.4%
Aaron Jones run for 6 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
21.9%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Aaron Jones for 8 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
21.1%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
21.6%
Nathan Jeffery run for 5 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
21.4%
Josh Bell run for no gain to the UTEP 48Similar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
20.5%
Jay Mattox punt for 20 yds, downed at the UthSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4981% → 80%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
19.5%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Devonte RobinsonSimilar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
19.3%
JoJo Natson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
19.6%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q3 7:55
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+1
20.3%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 37 yds , Damian Payne returns for 1 yd to the UTEP 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4420% → 19%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
20.1%
Aaron Jones run for 5 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
20.5%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 3
OWN 37
-5
20.0%
UTEP Penalty, Delay of Game (Jameill Showers) to the UTEP 32Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+3
19.1%
Jameill Showers pass intercepted Tyler Floyd return for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 2:0283% → 81%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
50
-2
17.4%
Kent Myers run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 48Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+5
17.7%
Kent Myers run for 5 yds to the UTEP 47 Kent Myers fumbled, forced by Jimmy Musgrave, recovered by UthSt Kent MyersSimilar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-7
17.1%
Kent Myers sacked by Nick Gathrite for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
19.3%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Damian Payne at the UTEP 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:2518% → 16%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
18.2%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Ian Hamilton for 13 yds to the UTEP 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
18.3%
Jameill Showers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
18.2%
Nathan Jeffery run for 2 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
17.2%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Ian HamiltonSimilar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+13
16.0%
Jay Mattox punt for 40 yds , JoJo Natson returns for 13 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:0683% → 84%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
16.7%
Nick Vigil run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 7
50
+8
16.1%
Kent Myers run for 8 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
16.0%
JoJo Natson run for 5 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+3
15.8%
Nick Vigil run for 3 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 34
-5
14.7%
Kent Myers run for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 39 Kent Myers fumbled, recovered by UthSt Kent MyersSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
16.2%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2317% → 14%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
16.5%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the UTEP 4Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 4
0
15.9%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Cole Rogers, broken up by Zach VigilSimilar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+6
15.1%
Aaron Jones run for 6 yds to the UTEP 10Similar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 3
OWN 10
0
14.1%
Jay Mattox punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21MISSED FG
7 plays · 8 yds · 3:1586% → 87%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
13.6%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 39Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+11
13.5%
JoJo Natson run for 11 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+3
13.2%
Nick Vigil run for 3 yds to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
12.2%
Nick Vigil run for no gain to the UTEP 25Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
11.2%
Kent Myers sacked by Jimmy Musgrave for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 30Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+1
11.6%
Kent Myers run for 1 yd to the UTEP 29Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+47
12.7%
Nick Diaz 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22FG
18 plays · 54 yds · 6:4713% → 14%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
13.0%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+3
13.1%
Jameill Showers run for 3 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+2
12.7%
Jameill Showers run for 2 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+3
12.2%
Jameill Showers run for 3 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
13.4%
Aaron Jones run for 16 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
14.4%
Aaron Jones run for no gain to the UthSt 42Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
13.9%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the UthSt 41Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+7
11.6%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Ian Hamilton for 7 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+4
11.6%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Katrae Ford for 4 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
14.4%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-1
14.1%
Autrey Golden run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+9
11.2%
Jameill Showers run for 9 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
9.9%
Jameill Showers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
9.7%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Ian HamiltonSimilar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+4
8.1%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Jarrad Shaw for 4 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
13.7%
Jay Mattox 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:2294% → 99%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
6.4%
JoJo Natson run for 23 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
3.9%
JoJo Natson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 43Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+32
4.0%
Joe Hill run for 32 yds to the UTEP 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
0.9%
Joe Hill run for 11 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 26 yds · 1:242% → 2%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
2.4%
Jameill Showers sacked by Frankie Sutera for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 20Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+9
2.1%
Jameill Showers run for 9 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
2.1%
Jameill Showers run for no gain to the UTEP 29Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+16
2.1%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Cole Rogers for 16 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
2.3%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Ian Hamilton for 6 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
2.4%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Jarrad ShawSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
2.3%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Jarrad ShawSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:12
Nick Vigil run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)
-10
FG · Q4 3:02
Jay Mattox 34 yd FG GOOD
+7.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Jay Mattox kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com