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MSU

Michigan State 42 at Baylor 41

BAY
2014 · Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic · Jan 1, 2015 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:05 · Chris Callahan 43 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by RJ Williamson return for 36 yds to the Bayl 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorTime remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 192Home team on offense+24.3Score differential+2.1Garbage-time factor+16.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.5Pregame prior+0.0Time remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:32: Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 74 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +10.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:03: LaQuan McGowan 18 Yd pass from Bryce Petty (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +10.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:09: Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +10.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:55: Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +18.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:17: Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +68.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 5:06BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:40MSU 4th & 18 at MSU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:09MSU 4th & 10 at BAY 33, tied
    Close callWent for it · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    43.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:13MSU 4th & 3 at BAY 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:14BAY 4th & 6 at MSU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−5.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:24MSU 4th & 2 at BAY 37, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.9%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    30.1%
    40% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:26MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−1.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:23BAY 4th & 15 at MSU 29, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−6.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:18BAY 4th & 14 at MSU 29, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:18BAY 4th & 6 at MSU 39, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    91.5%−1.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:05BAY 4th & 15 at MSU 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:05MSU 4th & 10 at BAY 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    8.7%−3.9
    62% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−7.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:27MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:56BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:06MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:32BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:13BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:32BAY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:50MSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:03BAY Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:09MSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:55MSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:17MSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−13.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3347% → 48%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.9%
Jeremy Langford run for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
52.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 9 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+65
52.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 65 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
52.9%
Nick Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 2Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
52.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Trevon PendletonSimilar
Q1 12:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
12 plays · 93 yds · 3:2852% → 54%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
52.2%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+5
52.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Tre'Von Armstead for 5 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+9
52.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 9 yds to the Bayl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
52.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 9 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 1
OWN 30
-4
52.4%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+8
52.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 8 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
52.3%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan GoodleySimilar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
52.2%
Petty,Bryce pass complete to Fuller,Clay for 3 yards to the BU37, out-of-bounds (Williamson, RJ), PENALTY BU ineligible downfield on pass (Norwood,Levi) 5 yards to the BU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+11
52.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 11 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+11
52.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 11 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
54.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 49 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:4247% → 51%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+24
53.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 24 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
52.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+4
52.6%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+8
52.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 8 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
52.5%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd to the Bayl 21Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+10
52.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 10 yds to the Bayl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
48.7%
R.J. Shelton run for 11 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.1%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
50.0%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
49.6%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Levi NorwoodSimilar
Q1 5:06
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
49.4%
Spencer Roth punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
49.5%
Nick Hill run for 3 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
49.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-5
49.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (Jack Conklin) to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 12
OWN 25
-6
50.1%
Connor Cook sacked by Shawn Oakman for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 4:40
4TH & 18
OWN 19
0
50.4%
Mike Sadler punt for 46 yds, downed at the Bayl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:3550% → 56%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
49.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 9 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
50.7%
Bryce Petty run for 3 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
55.5%
Jay Lee pass complete to Corey Coleman for 53 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) MICHIGAN ST Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7DOWNS
18 plays · 56 yds · 6:1847% → 46%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
53.5%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
53.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 7
OWN 20
-5
54.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (Tony Lippett) to the MchSt 15Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+15
54.1%
Cook, Connor pass incomplete to Kings, Macgarrett, PENALTY BU pass interference (Brence,Collin) 15 yards to the MSU30, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
53.3%
R.J. Shelton run for no gain to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
53.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 6 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+4
53.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jeremy Langford for 4 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
52.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+17
52.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 17 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
52.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 6 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+3
51.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+1
52.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
51.6%
Macgarrett Kings Jr. run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+2
51.4%
Nick Hill run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
-2
52.0%
Connor Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 33 Connor Cook fumbled, recovered by MchStSimilar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+6
54.4%
Michael Geiger run for 6 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 2:5056% → 66%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
56.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 4 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
56.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 5 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
56.7%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+26
56.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 26 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
58.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+10
58.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Clay Fuller for 10 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 1
OPP 27
-2
58.0%
Devin Chafin run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 11:03
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+10
56.8%
Petty,Bryce pass incomplete to Tre'Von Armstead, PENALTY MSU HD (Hicks, Mylan) 10 yards to the MSU19, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
58.7%
Petty,Bryce pass incomplete to Goodley,Antwan, PENALTY MSU roughing passer (McDowell, Malik) 10 yards to the MSU9, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
58.7%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan GoodleySimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
58.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 8 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.4%
Bryce Petty run for 1 yd for a TD MICHIGAN ST Penalty, ( Yards) declined, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0036% → 37%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.5%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
64.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 5 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
63.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 10 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
62.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
62.5%
Nick Hill run for 4 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
62.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
63.5%
Mike Sadler punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10FG
8 plays · 77 yds · 1:4866% → 69%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+36
66.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 36 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+37
68.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 37 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
68.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 5 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 5
OPP 7
-5
68.3%
Petty,Bryce pass incomplete to Tre'Von Armstead, PENALTY BU IR (Broxton,Jarell) 5 yards to the MSU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+4
68.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 4 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
67.5%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan Goodley, broken up by Demetrious CoxSimilar
Q2 3:14
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
69.1%
Chris Callahan 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11DOWNS
12 plays · 48 yds · 2:4330% → 30%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
69.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+3
69.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+3
70.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
69.6%
Cook, Connor pass incomplete to Burbridge, Aaron (Stewart,Orion), PENALTY BU pass interference (Howard,Xavien) 15 yards to the MSU41, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
68.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Delton Williams for 5 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+9
67.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 9 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
67.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
67.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 5 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+3
67.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jeremy Langford for 3 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
70.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Jeremy Langford, broken up by Xavien HowardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0374% → 72%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
73.8%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
73.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Pat Colbert) to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 15
OWN 32
0
72.9%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 15
OWN 32
-6
72.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 0:1972% → 82%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
72.0%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+74
82.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 74 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
82.4%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
82.5%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:26
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
82.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q3 14:26
4TH & 7
OWN 18
+10
82.9%
Mike Sadler punt for 40 yds , Levi Norwood returns for 10 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:5883% → 93%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
83.3%
Petty,Bryce pass incomplete to Goodley,Antwan, PENALTY BU ineligible downfield on pass (Fuller,Kyle) 5 yards to the BU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+17
83.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 17 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
83.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 9 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+3
83.3%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
83.3%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan Goodley, broken up by Tony LippettSimilar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
83.3%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-5
82.7%
Bryce Petty sacked by Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 15
OPP 29
+46
92.6%
Chris Callahan 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:2610% → 20%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
90.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 9 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+4
89.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
50
+6
90.2%
Jeremy Langford run for 6 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
89.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Andrew GleichertSimilar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+17
90.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 17 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+19
89.1%
Tony Lippett run for 19 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
89.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the Bayl 5Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
89.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the Bayl 2Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4784% → 96%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
84.4%
Bryce Petty sacked by Shilique Calhoun and Joel Heath for a loss of 13 yards to the Bayl 11 Bryce Petty fumbled, recovered by Bayl Spencer Drango , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+45
83.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 45 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
85.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 15 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
85.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 8 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+4
85.2%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
85.2%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 18Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+18
96.0%
LaQuan McGowan 18 Yd pass from Bryce Petty (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18INT
7 plays · 49 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 9 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
95.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 6 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
95.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 7 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+15
95.0%
Cook, Connor pass incomplete to Rea, Matt, PENALTY BU pass interference (Howard,Xavien) 15 yards to the BU38, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
95.0%
Nick Hill run for 12 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
94.3%
Connor Cook pass intercepted Alfred Pullom return for 21 yds to the Bayl 5 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Donavon Clark) to the Bayl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:3196% → 98%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
95.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 9 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
95.6%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
95.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 9 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+15
95.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Clay Fuller for 15 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
95.5%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Clay FullerSimilar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-10
95.5%
Petty,Bryce rush for 7 yards to the MSU18 (Jones, Taiwan), PENALTY BU holding (Desmine Hilliard) 10 yards to the MSU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 20
OPP 35
-8
95.5%
Bryce Petty sacked by Ed Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 28
OPP 43
+14
97.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Shock Linwood for 14 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
97.6%
Chris Callahan 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 2:093% → 13%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+50
97.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 50 yds to the Bayl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
97.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+7
97.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 7 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+4
97.2%
Connor Cook run for 4 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
86.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21INT
3 plays · 39 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+39
88.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 39 yds to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+47
86.9%
Connor Cook pass intercepted Taylor Young return for 37 yds to the Bayl 0 BAYLOR Penalty, illegal block (Andrew Billings) to the Bayl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 11:18
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+10
93.4%
Shock Linwood run for 10 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
93.5%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan Goodley, broken up by Trae WaynesSimilar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
93.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 2 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+2
93.2%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
92.5%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
93.3%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 4:2010% → 30%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
90.2%
Nick Hill run for 2 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
90.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 9 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
90.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 21 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
88.8%
Nick Hill run for 4 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
88.6%
Connor Cook run for 5 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+4
89.3%
Connor Cook run for 4 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
88.6%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+10
88.6%
Connor Cook run for 10 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24MISSED FG
15 plays · 48 yds · 3:5087% → 95%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
87.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 31 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
89.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 4 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+3
89.1%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+5
91.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 5 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
92.0%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+11
94.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 26 yds to the MchSt 7 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Corey Coleman) to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
94.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Spencer Drango) to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+1
93.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 14
OPP 26
-4
93.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 18
OPP 30
+3
95.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 3 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 15
OPP 27
+43
95.0%
Chris Callahan 43 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by RJ Williamson return for 36 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 0:4813% → 87%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
87.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 18 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
81.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah Price, broken up by Taylor YoungSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
82.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
86.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+17
88.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 17 yds to the Bayl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
81.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
81.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q4 0:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
13.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26INT
6 plays · -13 yds · 0:1031% → 26%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
30.8%
Bryce Petty sacked by Lawrence Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-7
29.3%
Bryce Petty sacked by Marcus Rush and Riley Bullough for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 12Similar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+14
25.9%
Bryce Petty pass intercepted Riley Bullough return for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 11 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Bayl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
6.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:17
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
-68.5
TD · Q4 4:55
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
-18.8
TD · Q3 4:03
LaQuan McGowan 18 Yd pass from Bryce Petty (Chris Callahan Kick)
+10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com