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FRES

Fresno State 14 at Boise State 28

BOIS
2014 · Week 15 · Dec 6, 2014 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:21 · Garrett Swanson punt for 34 yds, downed at the BoiSt 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior+24.4Home team on offense+16.5Score differential+11.3Garbage-time factor+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:56: Brian Burrell pass intercepted Tanner Vallejo return for 63 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK) — BOIS win probability +2.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:03: Jay Ajayi 9 Yd Run (Dan Goodale Kick) — BOIS win probability +4.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:28: Grant Hedrick 21 Yd Run (Dan Goodale Kick) — BOIS win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:18: Josh Quezada 2 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick) — FRES win probability +2.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:31: Greg Watson 25 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick) — FRES win probability +3.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 13:42FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:41BOIS 4th & 8 at FRES 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    85.5%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:18FRES 4th & 15 at BOIS 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−2.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:24FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:09BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 33, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:21FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 34, down 21
    Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:13BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 41, up 21
    Close callPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:36BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 19, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:43FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:35BOIS 4th & 13 at BOIS 5, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:32FRES 4th & 7 at BOIS 36, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:57FRES 4th & 7 at BOIS 23, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:13BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 23, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:14FRES 4th & 6 at BOIS 45, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−<0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:28FRES 4th & 12 at BOIS 43, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%
    28% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:36BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:31BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:56BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:03BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:28BOIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:18FRES Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:31FRES Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1811% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
88.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
88.8%
Greg Watson pass incomplete to Josh Harper, broken up by Donte DeayonSimilar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
88.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 8 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 14:29
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
88.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 1 yd to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 13:42
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
88.6%
Garrett Swanson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 1:0689% → 89%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
88.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+46
88.4%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 46 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
88.4%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+20
88.7%
Grant Hedrick 20 Yd Run (Dan Goodale Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3INT
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:4112% → 12%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.5%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
88.5%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
88.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Aaron Peck for 13 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
88.2%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
88.2%
Brian Burrell run for no gain to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+16
88.1%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 16 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
87.9%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+1
87.9%
Brian Burrell run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
87.8%
Brian Burrell pass intercepted, touchback. Donte Deayon return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:5788% → 88%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
88.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Holden Huff for 14 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
88.1%
Jay Ajayi run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 2
OWN 42
0
88.2%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+10
88.1%
Jay Ajayi run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
88.2%
Grant Hedrick run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+1
88.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 1 yd to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
87.9%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
87.6%
Sean Wale punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5INT TD
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:4012% → 11%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.6%
Josh Quezada run for no gain to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
87.6%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 4 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+18
87.6%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 18 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
87.1%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
87.2%
Josh Quezada run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+9
87.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 9 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
86.7%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 13
50
-1
86.9%
Brian Burrell sacked by Ben Weaver for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+63
89.1%
Brian Burrell pass intercepted Tanner Vallejo return for 63 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6MISSED FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:3011% → 11%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.0%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
89.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+52
88.9%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 52 yds to the BoiSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
88.3%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+7
88.6%
Marteze Waller run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 11
-7
88.4%
Brian Burrell sacked by Armand Nance for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 15
OPP 18
+35
89.1%
Kody Kroening 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Armand NanceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 5:0990% → 95%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
89.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 1
OWN 37
0
90.0%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Chaz Anderson, broken up by Malcolm WashingtonSimilar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+10
89.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+24
90.2%
Grant Hedrick run for 24 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
90.3%
Hedrick, Grant pass complete to Williams-Rhodes, Shane for 29 yards to the FRESNOST0, PENALTY BOISEST holding (Anderson, Chaz) 10 yards to the FRESNOST39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+5
90.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 5 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+20
90.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 20 yds to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
90.4%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+14
90.4%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 14 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+2
90.9%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
91.0%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
91.0%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Mario Yakoo) to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
95.4%
Jay Ajayi 9 Yd Run (Dan Goodale Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:256% → 5%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-12
94.4%
Burrell, Brian pass complete to Harper, Josh for no gain to the FRESNOST24, PENALTY FRESNOST personal foul (Watson, Greg) 12 yards to the FRESNOST12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 22
OWN 12
+3
94.6%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Marteze Waller for 3 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 19
OWN 15
+11
94.5%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Aaron Peck for 11 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+2
94.6%
Brian Burrell run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
94.6%
Garrett Swanson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0696% → 96%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
95.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 1
OWN 38
-5
95.8%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Mario Yakoo) to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
95.8%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
95.7%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
95.5%
Sean Wale punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Derron Smith at the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:415% → 5%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.8%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
94.6%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
95.0%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
95.1%
Garrett Swanson punt for 34 yds, downed at the BoiSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0296% → 97%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
96.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
96.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 2
OWN 40
-5
96.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Mario Yakoo) to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+6
96.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Holden Huff for 6 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+48
96.5%
Sean Wale punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Derron Smith at the BOISEST 22 FRESNO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (11 Yards) to the FrsSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:324% → 4%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
95.6%
Josh Quezada run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+10
95.6%
Josh Quezada run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
95.6%
Brian Burrell run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 3:1896% → 99%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
96.4%
Jay Ajayi run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 4
OWN 20
-1
96.6%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+13
96.5%
Grant Hedrick run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+41
96.8%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 41 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
97.0%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+8
97.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 8 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+21
99.4%
Grant Hedrick 21 Yd Run (Dan Goodale Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14TD
21 plays · 96 yds · 8:001% → 3%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
99.3%
Marteze Waller run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 3
OWN 11
-4
99.3%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+14
99.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 14 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
99.4%
Josh Quezada run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
99.5%
Brian Burrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+8
99.5%
Brian Burrell run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
99.5%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+3
99.5%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+8
99.5%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 8 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.5%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Greg WatsonSimilar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
99.5%
Josh Quezada run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+15
99.6%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Aaron Peck for 15 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
99.6%
Josh Quezada run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+2
99.5%
Josh Quezada run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+7
99.6%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 7 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.6%
Josh Quezada run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+9
99.6%
Brian Burrell run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
99.6%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 9 yds to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+2
99.7%
Burrell, Brian pass incomplete to Peck, Aaron, PENALTY BOISEST pass interference (Deayon, Donte) 2 yards to the BOISEST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.3%
Josh Quezada 2 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2598% → 98%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
98.0%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-5
98.1%
Grant Hedrick sacked by Tyeler Davison for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 12
OWN 19
0
98.4%
Grant Hedrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
98.3%
Sean Wale punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Derron Smith at the FrsSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:482% → 2%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.1%
Josh Quezada run for no gain to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
98.2%
Brian Burrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
98.2%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Aaron Peck, broken up by Donte DeayonSimilar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
98.3%
Garrett Swanson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:0399% → 99%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
98.5%
Grant Hedrick run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 10Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 10
-5
98.6%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 13
OWN 5
0
98.7%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 13
OWN 5
+2
98.7%
Sean Wale punt for 48 yds , Derron Smith returns for 2 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18DOWNS
12 plays · 28 yds · 4:341% → 1%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
98.7%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
98.8%
Josh Quezada run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+9
98.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 9 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
98.8%
Josh Quezada run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-9
98.8%
Brian Burrell sacked by Armand Nance and Kamalei Correa for a loss of 9 yards to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 18
OPP 47
+11
99.0%
Brian Burrell run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+10
98.9%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 10 yds to the BoiSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
98.8%
Josh Quezada run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+2
98.8%
Josh Quezada run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
98.9%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 7
OPP 23
0
99.0%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Chad Olsen, broken up by Tanner VallejoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4499% → 99%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
99.2%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Steven Baggett) to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+3
99.2%
Grant Hedrick run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 12
OWN 21
0
99.2%
Grant Hedrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+2
99.2%
Grant Hedrick run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 10
OWN 23
+11
99.2%
Sean Wale punt for 37 yds , Derron Smith returns for 11 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:331% → 4%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for no gain to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
99.2%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 4 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 6
OPP 45
+8
99.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 8 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
99.3%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Justin Johnson for 7 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+5
99.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 5 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
95.7%
Greg Watson 25 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:544% → 3%
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
96.3%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 3 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-15
96.2%
Burrell, Brian pass complete to Quezada, Josh for 5 yards to the BOISEST33, PENALTY FRESNOST illegal block (Rubalcava, Sean) 15 yards to the FRESNOST47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 22
OWN 47
-7
96.8%
Brian Burrell sacked by Sam McCaskill for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 29
OWN 40
+17
97.5%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 17 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
97.5%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Aaron Peck, broken up by Cleshawn PageSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:4698% → 98%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
98.1%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 44 Jay Ajayi fumbled, forced by Karl Mickelsen, recovered by BoiSt Steven BaggettSimilar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
98.1%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-2
98.2%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
98.1%
Sean Wale punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Derron Smith at the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23INT
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:121% → 2%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
98.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Justin Johnson for 22 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
98.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 3 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
98.6%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+18
98.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Aaron Peck for 18 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
98.3%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Greg Watson, broken up by Donte DeayonSimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
98.3%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 5 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+20
98.4%
Brian Burrell pass intercepted Beau Martin return for 20 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -17 yds · 0:4099% → 99%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
98.6%
BOISE ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-1
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:03
Jay Ajayi 9 Yd Run (Dan Goodale Kick)
+4.4
TD · Q4 5:31
Greg Watson 25 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)
-3.5
TD · Q3 3:18
Josh Quezada 2 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick)
-2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com