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ALA

Alabama 42 at Missouri 13

MIZ
2014 · Week 15 · Dec 6, 2014 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:41 · Christian Brinser punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Home team on offense−2.8Pregame prior−13.7Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:48: Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 58 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +7.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 8:30: Andrew Baggett 33 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +3.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:47: T.J. Yeldon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +11.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:00: Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK) — MIZ win probability +8.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:55: Blake Sims pass complete to Christion Jones for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +9.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:31ALA 4th & 17 at ALA 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:44MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 20, down 7
    Close callPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:49ALA 4th & 13 at ALA 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:41MIZ 4th & 14 at MIZ 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:18ALA 4th & 4 at MIZ 26, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.5%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:58MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:30MIZ 4th & 10 at ALA 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:29MIZ 4th & 13 at MIZ 48, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:00MIZ 4th & 1 at ALA 1, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%−2.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−8.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:20ALA 4th & 15 at ALA 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:37MIZ 4th & 8 at ALA 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−7.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:15MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 45, down 15
    Close callPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:05MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 26, down 29
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:24ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:48ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:47ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:00MIZ Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:55ALA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:38ALA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:38ALA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 3:1567% → 67%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
33.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to Jalston Fowler for 13 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
33.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 6 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+11
33.2%
T.J. Yeldon run for 11 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
33.3%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 4 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+9
33.3%
Amari Cooper run for 9 yds to the Misso 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
33.5%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+6
33.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 6 yds to the Misso 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
33.7%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 10 yds to the Misso 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
33.8%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Misso 1Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.8%
T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1133% → 33%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
33.2%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Marcus MurphySimilar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
33.2%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Darius WhiteSimilar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
33.0%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Marcus MurphySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5967% → 67%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
32.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 15
OWN 39
-5
33.1%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 20
OWN 34
+9
33.3%
Blake Sims run for 9 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 11
OWN 43
-6
33.0%
Blake Sims sacked by Shane Ray and Lucas Vincent for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 37Similar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 17
OWN 37
0
33.4%
JK Scott punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the Misso 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2333% → 33%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
33.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Misso 13Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+7
33.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Darius White for 7 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 1
OWN 20
0
33.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
32.9%
Christian Brinser punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Christion Jones at the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:3967% → 67%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
33.0%
T.J. Yeldon run for 3 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+12
32.9%
T.J. Yeldon run for 12 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
32.5%
Blake Sims run for 4 yds to the Alab 49 Blake Sims fumbled, recovered by AlabSimilar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
32.4%
Tyren Jones run for 5 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-12
32.3%
Blake Sims run for a loss of 12 yards to the Alab 42 Blake Sims fumbled, recovered by AlabSimilar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
33.5%
JK Scott punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the Misso 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:0233% → 32%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
33.4%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
33.4%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+11
33.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Marcus Murphy for 11 yds to the Misso 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
33.5%
Marcus Murphy run for 5 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 29
-5
33.8%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 24Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-4
33.2%
Marcus Murphy run for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 14
OWN 20
0
32.7%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Russell HansbroughSimilar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 14
OWN 20
0
32.4%
Christian Brinser punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:1368% → 68%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
32.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for no gain to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
32.2%
Blake Sims run for 5 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+11
32.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 11 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
31.7%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 7 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+6
31.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 6 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
31.5%
T.J. Yeldon run for 5 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
31.4%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+1
31.7%
T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd to the Misso 26Similar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
32.5%
Adam Griffith 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4734% → 33%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
33.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 6 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
34.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jimmie HuntSimilar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
33.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 11:58
4TH & 4
OWN 32
+26
32.9%
Christian Brinser punt for 41 yds, downed at the MISSOURI 27 MISSOURI Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
2 plays · 58 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
25.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 58 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) Similar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
25.7%
MISSOURI Penalty, Personal Foul (Shane Ray) to the 50 yard line, Shane Ray is ejected for targetingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:0127% → 29%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
26.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 5 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+15
26.9%
Marcus Murphy run for 15 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
27.7%
Marcus Murphy run for 1 yd to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+5
27.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 5 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+32
27.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 32 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
27.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 1 yd to the Alab 14Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-1
27.4%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 15Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
25.8%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
29.4%
Andrew Baggett 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:2571% → 86%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
29.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 7 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
27.8%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
27.4%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-2
27.0%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+5
27.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
27.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 5 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
27.2%
Jalston Fowler run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 8
50
+13
27.0%
Derrick Henry run for 13 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
26.8%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
26.4%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+9
26.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 9 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
25.9%
Blake Sims run for 2 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+1
25.8%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 1 yd to the Misso 19Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+17
25.7%
Blake Sims pass complete to O.J. Howard for 17 yds to the Misso 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
14.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:0618% → 18%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
18.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Darius White for 26 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
19.8%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-3
19.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 13
OWN 48
0
18.0%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jimmie HuntSimilar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
17.9%
Christian Brinser punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Christion Jones at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:5086% → 86%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
14.2%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+2
13.6%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+4
13.6%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3816% → 25%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Misso 26Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
15.9%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
15.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 10 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
16.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Misso 37Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-1
15.1%
Maty Mauk run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 36Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+63
14.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 63 yds to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
17.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Darius WhiteSimilar
Q3 11:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
16.4%
Marcus Murphy run for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
15.9%
Maty Mauk run for no gain to the Alab 1 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Misso Maty MaukSimilar
Q3 11:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.1%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:2977% → 78%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
23.3%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to DeAndrew WhiteSimilar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
23.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for no gain to the Alab 20Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+32
23.8%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 32 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
20.6%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
20.7%
T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd to the Misso 47Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 9
OPP 47
-6
20.2%
Blake Sims sacked by Lucas Vincent for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
22.1%
JK Scott punt for 33 yds, downed at the Misso 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1521% → 25%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
21.3%
Marcus Murphy run for 6 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
21.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 10 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
22.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 3 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-3
22.4%
Marcus Murphy run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 36Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+47
20.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 47 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
24.8%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Darius WhiteSimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
24.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
22.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
24.6%
Andrew Baggett 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:2078% → 93%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
21.9%
Blake Sims pass complete to O.J. Howard for 3 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
20.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to Brian Vogler for 5 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+6
20.3%
Blake Sims run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
50
+1
19.3%
T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd to the Misso 49Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+17
18.5%
Blake Sims pass complete to Christion Jones for 17 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
17.7%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+5
17.2%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Misso 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+17
17.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to Christion Jones for 17 yds to the Misso 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
16.7%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Misso 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
16.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 6Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
7.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to Christion Jones for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:2912% → 11%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
12.4%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
12.1%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Misso 29Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+12
11.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 12 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
12.9%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 40Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+5
11.9%
Russell Hansbrough run for 5 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
12.4%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jimmie HuntSimilar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
11.1%
Christian Brinser punt for 45 yds, downed at the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 4:2093% → 99%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
7.3%
T.J. Yeldon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 9Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+3
6.5%
T.J. Yeldon run for 3 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+32
6.4%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 17 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
5.2%
T.J. Yeldon run for 3 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+5
5.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 5 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+5
4.9%
T.J. Yeldon run for 5 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
4.0%
Blake Sims run for 17 yds to the Misso 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
0.9%
Derrick Henry run for 26 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:012% → 1%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
1.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 16 yds to the Misso 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
1.6%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-5
1.3%
MISSOURI Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Misso 39Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+23
1.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Darius White for 23 yds Darius White fumbled, recovered by Alab Landon CollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 2:2499% → 100%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
0.6%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+4
0.6%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
0.6%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+45
0.5%
Derrick Henry run for 45 yds to the Misso 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.1%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
0.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 4 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+5
0.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 5 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 1
OWN 26
0
0.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
0.1%
Christian Brinser punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Christion Jones at the Alab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
0.1%
Tyren Jones run for 7 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+14
0.1%
Tyren Jones run for 14 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:47
T.J. Yeldon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
-11.3
TD · Q4 14:55
Blake Sims pass complete to Christion Jones for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
-9.9
TD · Q3 11:00
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)
+8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com