Try the model
NIU

Northern Illinois 51 at Bowling Green 17

BGSU
2014 · Week 15 · Dec 5, 2014 · Ford Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:47 · Joe Davidson punt for 54 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 5 yds to the NoIll 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Pregame prior−7.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 11:10: Christian Hagan 32 Yd Field Goal — NIU win probability +3.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:33: Gehrig Dieter 42 Yd pass from James Knapke (Tyler Tate Kick) — BGSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q2 0:25: Luke Eakes 5 Yd pass from Drew Hare (Christian Hagan Kick) — NIU win probability +9.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:18: Juwan Brescacin 4 Yd pass from Drew Hare (Christian Hagan Kick) — NIU win probability +12.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:18: Cameron Stingily 2 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick) — NIU win probability +8.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 10:46NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:47BGSU 4th & 13 at BGSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:23BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 31, down 7
    Close callPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:05NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:58NIU 4th & 3 at BGSU 18, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.1%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    55.3%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:05BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 45, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:10NIU 4th & 11 at BGSU 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:17NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 28, up 6
    Close callPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:15BGSU 4th & 10 at BGSU 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:37NIU 4th & 2 at BGSU 49, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:31BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 20, down 6
    Close callPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:48NIU 4th & 1 at BGSU 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    66.2%−2.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−3.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:52BGSU 4th & 9 at BGSU 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:52BGSU 4th & 1 at NIU 36, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−1.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:15NIU 4th & 6 at BGSU 6, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:06BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 48, down 27
    Close callPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:46NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 22, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:55BGSU 4th & 7 at NIU 48, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 5:57NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:33BGSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:25NIU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:18NIU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:18NIU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:38NIU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:56BGSU Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:48NIU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1INT
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:4142% → 43%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+21
41.8%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 21 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
41.9%
Travis Greene run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-9
42.2%
James Knapke sacked by Michael Santacaterina for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+5
42.1%
Knapke, James pass complete to Lewis, Roger for 6 yards to the BOWLGREEN45, PENALTY NORTHERNIL substitution infraction 5 yards to the BOWLGREEN44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+15
42.4%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 15 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
42.7%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+15
42.9%
Moore, Ronnie pass incomplete to Lewis, Roger, PENALTY NORTHERNIL roughing passer (Durante, Dechane) 15 yards to the NORTHERNIL24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOWLGREEN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+34
43.1%
James Knapke pass intercepted Dechane Durante return for 34 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0358% → 57%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
42.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+3
42.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 3 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
42.5%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan Brescacin, broken up by Clint StephensSimilar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
42.8%
Tyler Wedel punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ryan Burbrink at the BwGrn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:5143% → 43%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
43.0%
Travis Greene run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+1
43.1%
James Knapke run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 6
OWN 18
-7
43.2%
James Knapke sacked by Ben Compton for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 13
OWN 11
+5
42.9%
Joe Davidson punt for 54 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 5 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:3957% → 60%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
43.0%
Cameron Stingily run for 8 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+4
42.9%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
42.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 11 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
42.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 2 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+20
42.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 20 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
42.7%
Drew Hare run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 7Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+2
42.8%
Drew Hare run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
39.7%
Drew Hare 5 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1641% → 41%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
40.8%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+2
40.8%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
40.3%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+5
40.1%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+5
40.5%
Joe Davidson punt for 60 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 5 yds to the NoIll 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1160% → 59%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
40.5%
Drew Hare run for no gain to the NoIll 14Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
40.5%
Akeem Daniels run for 6 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
40.6%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Cameron Stingily, broken up by D.J. LynchSimilar
Q1 3:05
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
41.0%
Tyler Wedel punt for 66 yds, downed at the BwGrn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
40.5%
James Knapke pass intercepted Paris Logan return for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4861% → 61%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
38.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+3
38.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 3 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
38.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q1 1:58
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
38.8%
Christian Hagan 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:3938% → 38%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
38.2%
Travis Greene run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+10
38.6%
Travis Greene run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
38.6%
Travis Greene run for no gain to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
38.4%
James Knapke sacked by TEAM for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 35 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (James Knapke) to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+10
37.2%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 10 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q1 0:05
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
37.7%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ryan BurbrinkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10FG
15 plays · 31 yds · 3:5062% → 66%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
37.7%
Cameron Stingily run for no gain to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
37.6%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+10
37.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Akeem Daniels for 10 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
37.4%
Drew Hare run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-5
37.1%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (Da'Ron Brown) to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
37.3%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+13
37.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 13 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
36.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
37.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+7
37.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 7 yds to the BwGrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
36.5%
Drew Hare sacked by Gus Schwieterman for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
37.1%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Ezra SaffoldSimilar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 11
OPP 14
0
36.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+32
33.6%
Christian Hagan 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2335% → 43%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.1%
Fred Coppet run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
35.7%
Fred Coppet run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
35.5%
James Knapke pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 14 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
35.8%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
35.9%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ryan BurbrinkSimilar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+42
43.2%
Gehrig Dieter 42 Yd pass from James Knapke (Tyler Tate Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0660% → 60%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
40.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+2
39.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 2 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
38.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete, broken up by Bryan ThomasSimilar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+10
40.1%
Tyler Wedel punt for 45 yds , Ryan Burbrink returns for 10 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5439% → 37%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
39.3%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
39.2%
Travis Greene run for no gain to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
37.3%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Travis GreeneSimilar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
36.9%
Joe Davidson punt for 46 yds, downed at the NoIll 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:2863% → 66%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
37.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 5 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
36.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 4 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+5
36.2%
Cameron Stingily run for 5 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
35.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 1 yd to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-4
36.0%
Drew Hare sacked by Gabe Martin for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+15
37.7%
Drew Hare run for 15 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
34.1%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
34.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 3 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+2
34.0%
Akeem Daniels run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
34.4%
Tyler Wedel punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ryan Burbrink at the BwGrn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0137% → 36%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
36.5%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+7
36.3%
Travis Greene run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+1
35.3%
Travis Greene run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
35.6%
Joe Davidson punt for 48 yds, downed at the NoIll 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 1:0164% → 79%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
35.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 8 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+6
34.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 6 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
34.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 11 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
32.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 7 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+14
32.2%
Akeem Daniels run for 14 yds to the BwGrn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
31.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 6 yds to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+11
31.9%
Akeem Daniels run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
31.0%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
30.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan BrescacinSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
21.0%
Luke Eakes 5 Yd pass from Drew Hare (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17END OF HALF
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:1328% → 33%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
27.9%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 15 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
28.9%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 3 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+13
28.8%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 13 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+46
33.1%
Tyler Tate 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 3:2969% → 84%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
30.8%
Akeem Daniels run for 9 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+13
29.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 13 yds to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
29.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 8 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 2
OPP 38
0
29.0%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan BrescacinSimilar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+1
29.5%
Cameron Stingily run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q3 12:48
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+13
29.7%
Akeem Daniels run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
27.7%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
27.9%
Drew Hare run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+16
28.1%
Drew Hare run for 16 yds to the BwGrn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
15.7%
Juwan Brescacin 4 Yd pass from Drew Hare (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1219% → 17%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
18.8%
Travis Greene run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+1
19.0%
Travis Greene run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-5
18.4%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Logan Dietz) to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
17.4%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 9
OWN 30
+7
17.2%
Joe Davidson punt for 50 yds , Shawun Lurry returns for 7 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 1:2884% → 95%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
16.4%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+13
16.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 13 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
15.3%
Drew Hare run for 8 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+7
14.7%
Cameron Stingily run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
14.8%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan BrescacinSimilar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+43
14.8%
Cameron Stingily run for 43 yds to the BwGrn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
14.0%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron Brown, broken up by Jude Adjei-BarimahSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.4%
Cameron Stingily 2 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:127% → 7%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+27
7.0%
Travis Greene run for 27 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
6.9%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 12 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
7.1%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 4 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+4
7.1%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 4 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+1
6.8%
Travis Greene run for 1 yd to the NoIll 36Similar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 1
OPP 36
-2
6.5%
James Knapke pass complete to Travis Greene for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22FG
7 plays · 56 yds · 1:2996% → 97%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
4.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 21 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
4.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+31
3.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 31 yds to the BwGrn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
3.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 6Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
3.6%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron Brown, broken up by Clint StephensSimilar
Q3 4:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
3.6%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q3 4:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
2.9%
Christian Hagan 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:434% → 4%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
3.9%
Fred Coppet run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+1
3.6%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+12
3.6%
Cody Callaway pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 12 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
3.8%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+2
4.1%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
4.3%
Cody Callaway pass incomplete to Ryan BurbrinkSimilar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
4.3%
Joe Davidson punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1097% → 97%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
2.6%
Drew Hare run for 4 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
2.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for no gain to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
2.5%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
2.8%
Tyler Wedel punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ryan Burbrink at the BwGrn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
3.8%
Cody Callaway pass intercepted Dechane Durante return for no gain to the NoIll 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
2.3%
Drew Hare pass intercepted Clint Stephens return for no gain to the BwGrn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:165% → 4%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
4.6%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
4.5%
Cody Callaway pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+1
4.4%
Cody Callaway run for 1 yd to the NoIll 48Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 7
OPP 48
-3
4.2%
Cody Callaway sacked by Ben Compton for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 28FUMBLE
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:2598% → 99%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
1.9%
Akeem Daniels run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+1
0.8%
Akeem Daniels run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+6
0.8%
Akeem Daniels run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
0.7%
Akeem Daniels run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
0.6%
Cameron Stingily run for no gain to the BwGrn 30 Cameron Stingily fumbled, forced by James Sanford, recovered by BwGrn Brian Sutton , return for 2 yds to the BwGrn 30 Brian Sutton fumbled, recovered by NoIll Aregeros TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 29TD
8 plays · 30 yds · 4:0899% → 100%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
0.6%
Akeem Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+5
0.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 5 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+8
0.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 8 yds to the BwGrn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
0.5%
Akeem Daniels run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+3
0.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+11
0.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 11 yds to the BwGrn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
0.3%
Cameron Stingily run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.2%
Cameron Stingily 2 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 30TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
0.3%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+3
0.2%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+21
0.2%
Travis Greene run for 21 yds to the NoIll 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.3%
Travis Greene 6 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 31TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 4:52100% → 100%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
0.2%
Cameron Stingily run for 6 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+8
0.2%
Cameron Stingily run for 8 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
0.2%
Cameron Stingily run for 26 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
0.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
0.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+18
0.1%
Jordan Huff run for 18 yds to the BwGrn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
0.1%
Jordan Huff run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.1%
Jordan Huff 2 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:340% → 0%
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
0.1%
Travis Greene run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
0.1%
Travis Greene run for no gain to the BwGrn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:18
Juwan Brescacin 4 Yd pass from Drew Hare (Christian Hagan Kick)
-12.4
TD · Q2 0:25
Luke Eakes 5 Yd pass from Drew Hare (Christian Hagan Kick)
-9.9
TD · Q3 8:18
Cameron Stingily 2 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)
-8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com