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FSU

Florida State 37 at Georgia Tech 35

GT
2014 · Week 15 · Dec 6, 2014 · Bank of America Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:11 · Ryan Rodwell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Pregame prior−4.3Home team on offense−3.2Garbage-time factor−2.0Score differential−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:02: Zach Laskey 4 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +7.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:40: Rashad Greene 44 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +12.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:30: Rashad Greene 9 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +11.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:01: Synjyn Days 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +17.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:47: Darren Waller 25 Yd pass from Justin Thomas (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +36.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 13:38FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  2. Q2 2:26GT 4th & 14 at GT 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  3. Q3 12:38GT 4th & 1 at FSU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.8%−3.2
    average punt
  4. Q3 3:13FSU 4th & 2 at GT 16, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.6%−1.8
    81% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−15.2
    average punt
  5. Q3 0:11GT 4th & 8 at FSU 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    41.4%−2.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  6. Q4 10:25FSU 4th & 10 at GT 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−2.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−17.1
    average punt
  7. Q4 7:23GT 4th & 5 at GT 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.3%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 4:28FSU 4th & 1 at GT 11, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.7%−3.8
    87% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−14.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:56FSU 4th & 14 at GT 46, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    90.0%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:50GT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:42FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:45GT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:10FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:02GT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:40FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:30FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:01GT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:47GT Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.4 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.5%−1.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0767% → 66%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
33.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
33.7%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+1
33.9%
Cason Beatty punt for 41 yds , Jamal Golden returns for 1 yd to the GTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:3334% → 38%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
34.0%
Justin Thomas run for 14 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
34.3%
Charles Perkins run for 2 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+9
34.6%
Synjyn Days run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
35.1%
Deon Hill run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+17
35.2%
Synjyn Days run for 17 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+20
35.6%
Charles Perkins run for 20 yds to the FlaSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
35.9%
Synjyn Days run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.9%
Synjyn Days 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 1:5663% → 65%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
37.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
37.5%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
37.6%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-5
38.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Roderick Johnson) to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+22
38.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 22 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
35.3%
Nick O'Leary 46 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3236% → 45%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
36.3%
Synjyn Days run for 2 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
36.5%
Days, Synjyn rush for 1 yard to the GATECH28, PENALTY FLORIDAST offside (Walker, DeMarcus) 5 yards to the GATECH32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+19
37.1%
Justin Thomas run for 19 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
37.7%
Synjyn Days run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-1
38.1%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+6
38.1%
Tony Zenon run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
38.6%
Dennis Andrews run for 20 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
39.1%
Synjyn Days run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+3
39.5%
B.J. Bostic run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+6
39.4%
Justin Thomas run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
40.3%
Synjyn Days run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.8%
Synjyn Days 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2457% → 63%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
43.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+26
42.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 26 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
42.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 8 yds to the GTech 34Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+16
41.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 16 yds to the GTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
42.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 9 yds to the GTech 9Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+8
42.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 8 yds to the GTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.7%
Dalvin Cook 1 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:0040% → 54%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.0%
Zach Laskey run for 5 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
40.6%
Dennis Andrews run for 5 yds to the GTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
40.7%
Zach Laskey run for 1 yd to the GTech 36Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+15
41.2%
Justin Thomas run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
42.8%
Zach Laskey run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+3
43.3%
Zach Laskey run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+4
43.2%
Zach Laskey run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
43.8%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Trey Braun) to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+6
43.2%
Charles Perkins run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+27
45.1%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Deon Hill for 27 yds to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
45.5%
B.J. Bostic run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
53.5%
Zach Laskey 4 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 1:5450% → 61%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
50.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 8 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+4
48.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
49.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 16 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
48.6%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-15
49.0%
Winston, Jameis rush for 18 yards to the GATECH25, PENALTY FLORIDAST personal foul (Hart, Bobby) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 25
OWN 42
+14
51.7%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 14 yds to the GTech 44Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+44
38.8%
Rashad Greene 44 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:0643% → 42%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.3%
Synjyn Days run for 4 yds to the GTech 29Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
43.8%
Justin Thomas run for 15 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
46.2%
Synjyn Days run for no gain to the GTech 44Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
45.5%
Charles Perkins run for no gain to the GTech 44Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-5
44.2%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Chris Griffin) to the GTech 39Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 15
OWN 39
+1
43.5%
Synjyn Days run for 1 yd to the GTech 40Similar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 14
OWN 40
0
42.4%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:4360% → 75%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
40.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 29 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
37.4%
Jameis Winston pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+11
37.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 11 yds to the GTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
36.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 7 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
35.8%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+4
36.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the GTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
35.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 9 yds to the GTech 15Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 1
OPP 15
0
35.9%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the GTech 15Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+6
36.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the GTech 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
25.4%
Rashad Greene 9 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:2231% → 31%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
30.8%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Darren Waller for 12 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
31.1%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
31.0%
Synjyn Days run for no gain to the GTech 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 6:4031% → 54%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
31.4%
Charles Perkins run for 20 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
33.4%
Dennis Andrews run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 42Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+6
32.4%
Charles Perkins run for 6 yds to the GTech 48Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+4
33.1%
Deon Hill run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+3
32.5%
Synjyn Days run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
34.3%
Justin Thomas run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
35.7%
Synjyn Days run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+1
35.7%
Synjyn Days run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+14
34.1%
Justin Thomas run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
35.8%
Zach Laskey run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
35.9%
Zach Laskey run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+3
34.4%
Zach Laskey run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
36.0%
Synjyn Days run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.8%
Synjyn Days 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:3955% → 64%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
45.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
44.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 14 yds to the GTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
41.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 4 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+10
41.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 10 yds to the GTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
40.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 7 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+4
40.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the GTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
40.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 5 yds to the GTech 19Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+3
39.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the GTech 16Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 2
OPP 16
0
41.6%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the GTech 16Similar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+33
36.3%
Roberto Aguayo 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:5540% → 40%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
40.3%
Charles Perkins run for 12 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
41.4%
Zach Laskey run for 4 yds to the GTech 41Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+13
44.0%
Deon Hill run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
45.5%
Zach Laskey run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-1
45.6%
Charles Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
44.6%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to B.J. BosticSimilar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
40.1%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14FG
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3962% → 76%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
38.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+5
38.6%
Jameis Winston run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+11
39.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 11 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
37.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 19 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
34.5%
Winston, Jameis pass sacked for loss of 7 yards to the FLORIDAST40 (Davis, Paul;Nealy, Quayshawn), PENALTY GATECH holding (Smith, Demond) 10 yards to the GATECH43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
34.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 13 yds to the GTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
30.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the GTech 26Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
30.2%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+11
32.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 11 yds to the GTech 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
30.0%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the GTech 15Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
27.8%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis Rudolph FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
30.2%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
23.8%
Roberto Aguayo 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5130% → 28%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.7%
Synjyn Days run for 4 yds to the GTech 29Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
30.6%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Darren Waller for 13 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
33.4%
Justin Thomas run for 1 yd to the GTech 43Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+5
33.4%
Justin Thomas run for 5 yds to the GTech 48Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-1
33.3%
Charles Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 47Similar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
28.3%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Darren WallerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:4584% → 89%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
16.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the GTech 43Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+23
16.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 23 yds to the GTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
15.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the GTech 18Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+6
15.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Freddie Stevenson for 6 yds to the GTech 12Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+1
15.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the GTech 11Similar
Q4 4:28
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+28
10.8%
Roberto Aguayo 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4912% → 10%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
11.7%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Deon HillSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
11.4%
Justin Thomas run for no gain to the GTech 16Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+4
10.3%
Justin Thomas pass intercepted Lamarcus Brutus return for 4 yds to the GTech 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:1891% → 92%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
8.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the GTech 42Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-4
7.8%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 46Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 14
OPP 46
0
7.9%
Jameis Winston pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 14
OPP 46
0
7.8%
Cason Beatty punt for 43 yds, downed at the GTech 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 97 yds · 0:505% → 43%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+10
5.2%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Synjyn Days for 10 yds to the GTech 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
5.3%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Darren Waller for 13 yds to the GTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
5.4%
Justin Thomas pass complete to B.J. Bostic for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
50
+10
6.4%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Darren Waller for 10 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
6.3%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Darren Waller for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (P.J. Williams) to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
43.3%
Darren Waller 25 Yd pass from Justin Thomas (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20END OF GAME
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:2786% → 95%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
14.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
13.0%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the GTech 42Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+10
10.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 10 yds to the GTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
4.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:47
Darren Waller 25 Yd pass from Justin Thomas (Harrison Butker Kick)
+36.9
TD · Q3 8:01
Synjyn Days 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)
+17.8
TD · Q2 5:40
Rashad Greene 44 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick)
-12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com