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UK

Kentucky 17 at Vanderbilt 21

VAN
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:19 · Landon Foster punt for 44 yds , Ryan White returns for no gain to the Vandy 36 Ryan White fumbled, recovered by Vandy Tre Bell
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Home team on offense+9.2Pregame prior+3.7Garbage-time factor+1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score differential+3.8Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:10: Drew Barker pass intercepted for a TD Oren Burks return for 30 yds for a TD, (Hayden Lekacz KICK) — VAN win probability +11.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:37: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 37 yds for a TD, (Hayden Lekacz KICK) — VAN win probability +11.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:06: Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +19.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:56: Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Kent 35 — VAN win probability +10.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:40: Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the Kent 36 — VAN win probability +13.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 11UK made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00UK 4th & 1 at VAN 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.6%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:22UK 4th & 14 at VAN 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:15VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:18UK 4th & 9 at UK 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:56UK 4th & 1 at VAN 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    42.2%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:51VAN 4th & 7 at UK 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    56.7%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00UK 4th & 2 at UK 39, down 4
    Close callPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:48VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:20VAN 4th & 9 at UK 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:05UK 4th & 1 at VAN 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.7%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:33VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:19UK 4th & 5 at UK 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:43VAN 4th & 6 at UK 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    77.9%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−4.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:31UK 4th & 4 at UK 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:19VAN 4th & 4 at UK 47, up 11
    Close callPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:21UK 4th & 8 at VAN 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−11.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:21VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:54UK 4th & 5 at UK 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−1.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:56VAN 4th & 8 at UK 36, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    75.7%−1.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%−2.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:30UK 4th & 3 at UK 20, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%−3.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:03VAN 4th & 10 at UK 24, up 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.3 ptsWent for it · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.8%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    91.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−9.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:36VAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:23UK Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:10VAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:37VAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:06UK Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1FG
15 plays · 39 yds · 4:3842% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
58.0%
Patrick Towles run for 5 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
58.0%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+10
58.0%
Stanley Williams run for 10 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
58.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Stanley WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+9
58.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 9 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
58.0%
Mikel Horton run for no gain to the Vandy 36Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
58.0%
Mikel Horton run for 2 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
58.0%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
58.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Charles Walker for 9 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+8
58.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 8 yds to the Vandy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-4
58.0%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 21
0
58.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Stanley WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 21
0
58.0%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:22
4TH & 14
OPP 21
+38
58.0%
Austin MacGinnis 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
57.8%
Darrius Sims run for 1 yd to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+2
57.7%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+1
57.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 1 yd to the Vandy 28Similar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
57.4%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
57.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Sihiem King for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 19Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+5
57.7%
Patrick Towles run for 5 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
57.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete, broken up by Landon StokesSimilar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
58.1%
Landon Foster punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Darrius Sims at the Vandy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
57.6%
Trent Sherfield run for 3 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
58.0%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 39 Ralph Webb fumbled, forced by Khalid Henderson, recovered by Kent Khalid HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:2143% → 43%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
56.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to C.J. ConradSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+38
56.6%
Stanley Williams run for 38 yds to the Vandy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.8%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Vandy 1Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q1 5:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
56.2%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Vandy 1Similar
Q1 5:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
56.6%
Patrick Towles run for no gain to the Vandy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 53 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
56.0%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 2Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+2
55.9%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 4Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+7
55.5%
Dallas Rivers run for 7 yds to the Vandy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
56.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Dallas RiversSimilar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+4
56.1%
Dallas Rivers run for 4 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+36
55.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 36 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
57.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
57.4%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
57.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent Sherfield, broken up by Chris Westry VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
56.3%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
56.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-9
56.2%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 4 Stanley Williams fumbled, forced by Caleb Azubike, recovered by Vandy Jay WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
61.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kyle Anderton for 4 yds for a TD, (Hayden Lekacz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:2741% → 40%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
59.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for no gain to the Kent 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
59.7%
Patrick Towles run for 8 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
58.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete, broken up by Darreon HerringSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+46
59.7%
Landon Foster punt for 46 yds , Darrius Sims returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 3 Darrius Sims fumbled, forced by Mike Edwards, recovered by Kent Jordan JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
58.5%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
58.5%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted, touchback. Oren Burks return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
60.7%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
60.8%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 24Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
60.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q2 13:48
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
59.5%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:5539% → 48%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+42
61.1%
Drew Barker pass complete to Jeff Badet for 42 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
58.5%
Drew Barker pass complete to Dorian Baker for 8 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+13
58.5%
Stanley Williams run for 13 yds to the Vandy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
58.5%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Vandy 7Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
52.0%
Drew Barker pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
54.8%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 18Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+3
54.7%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+16
53.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 16 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
55.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 14 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-7
57.2%
Darrius Sims run for 3 yds to the Vandy 46 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Vandy 44Similar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 17
OWN 44
+7
55.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 7 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
56.9%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Kent 48Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
56.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent Sherfield, broken up by Kendall RandolphSimilar
Q2 10:20
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
54.6%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14INT TD
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:2147% → 36%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
52.6%
Drew Barker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 11
OWN 21
-1
52.9%
Drew Barker pass complete to Dorian Baker for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 20Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+30
64.3%
Drew Barker pass intercepted for a TD Oren Burks return for 30 yds for a TD, (Hayden Lekacz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-11
62.2%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 11 yards to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 21
OWN 21
+4
63.4%
Drew Barker pass complete to Dorian Baker for 4 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 17
OWN 25
+17
64.2%
Drew Barker run for 17 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
61.2%
Mikel Horton run for 3 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
60.9%
Drew Barker run for 6 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
60.6%
Mikel Horton run for no gain to the Vandy 49Similar
Q2 5:05
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
61.9%
Drew Barker pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 0:3866% → 77%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
66.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Steven Scheu for 2 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
66.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+15
65.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 15 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
67.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 37Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+37
77.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 37 yds for a TD, (Hayden Lekacz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:0024% → 25%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
76.0%
Jojo Kemp run for 14 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
75.5%
Jojo Kemp run for 3 yds to the Kent 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:2276% → 74%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+22
76.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 22 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
77.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
77.1%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 49Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
75.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent Sherfield, broken up by Mike EdwardsSimilar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
74.4%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
75.6%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
75.9%
Jojo Kemp run for 1 yd to the Kent 16Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+4
76.7%
Drew Barker run for 4 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
77.1%
Landon Foster punt for 44 yds , Ryan White returns for no gain to the Vandy 36 Ryan White fumbled, recovered by Vandy Tre BellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
77.4%
Ralph Webb run for 16 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
78.6%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+13
78.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 13 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
78.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kris Kentera, broken up by A.J. StampsSimilar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
78.4%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 3
OPP 26
-3
77.9%
Darrius Sims run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 29Similar
Q3 11:43
4TH & 6
OPP 29
0
76.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5923% → 19%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
77.3%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
78.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Sihiem King for 6 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
77.4%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian Baker, broken up by Torren McGasterSimilar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+3
81.5%
Landon Foster punt for 46 yds , Ryan White returns for 3 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
81.0%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
81.0%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+4
80.8%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.1%
Ralph Webb run for 10 yds to the Vandy 45 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding (Jake Bernstein) to the Vandy 35Similar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
81.1%
Ralph Webb run for 12 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
82.4%
Dallas Rivers run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 7
50
+1
82.4%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Kent 49Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+2
81.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Dallas Rivers for 2 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
80.8%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23TD
6 plays · 91 yds · 1:3914% → 40%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
86.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 9 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+9
84.6%
Stanley Williams run for 9 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+66
84.8%
Stanley Williams run for 66 yds to the Vandy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
80.4%
Jojo Kemp run for 5 yds to the Vandy 2Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
60.5%
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5471% → 68%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
70.9%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+2
70.7%
Dallas Rivers run for 2 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
69.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Darrius SimsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+5
68.1%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 27 , Charles Walker returns for 5 yds to the Kent 35 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding (Jordan Jones) to the Kent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 25MISSED FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 4:2232% → 33%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
67.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 19 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
64.4%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
64.0%
Patrick Towles run for 6 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+23
62.9%
Jojo Kemp run for 23 yds to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
60.6%
Jojo Kemp run for 4 yds to the Vandy 18Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+1
60.6%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Vandy 17Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+3
62.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 3 yds to the Vandy 14Similar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 2
OPP 14
-6
64.8%
KENTUCKY Penalty, delay of game (-6 Yards) to the Vandy 20Similar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
67.0%
Austin MacGinnis 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0072% → 69%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
71.9%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-1
72.2%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 25Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
70.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+6
68.9%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 43 yds , Charles Walker returns for 6 yds to the Kent 31 KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal block (Josh Allen) to the Kent 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
68.8%
Patrick Towles sacked by Caleb Azubike for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 24Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+1
70.5%
Jojo Kemp run for 1 yd to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+8
71.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 8 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
71.0%
Landon Foster punt, downed at the Kent 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0082% → 79%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
81.8%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-1
82.4%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 36Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
80.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Darrius SimsSimilar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
78.5%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 26%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
70.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+7
71.4%
Patrick Towles run for 7 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 3
OWN 20
0
72.3%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 3
OWN 20
+25
73.6%
Landon Foster punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ryan White at the 50 yard line KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Kent 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 30DOWNS
13 plays · 23 yds · 3:3787% → 93%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
87.3%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the Kent 36Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+2
87.2%
Kyle Shurmur run for 2 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
87.8%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+6
87.7%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+1
90.2%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
91.6%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+2
91.6%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+1
94.5%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Kent 19Similar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 5
OPP 19
-5
93.5%
VANDERBILT Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Kent 24Similar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+2
93.2%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Kent 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
90.5%
Patrick Towles sacked by Caleb Azubike for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:06
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
-19.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:40
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the Kent 36
+13.7
TD · Q2 5:10
Drew Barker pass intercepted for a TD Oren Burks return for 30 yds for a TD, (Hayden Lekacz KICK)
+11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com