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ALA

Alabama 31 at Mississippi State 6

MSST
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:07 · JK Scott punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Home team on offense−0.8Score differential−1.1Pregame prior−12.8Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. PUNT · Q2 10:44: Logan Cooke punt for 34 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 69 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +8.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:36: Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 60 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +7.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:10: Derrick Henry run for 74 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +11.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:08: ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alphonse Taylor) to the Alab 32 — ALA win probability +4.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 1:24: Westin Graves 39 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +5.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 12ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 11:47MSST 4th & 18 at MSST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:04ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:00MSST 4th & 3 at ALA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    36.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:20MSST 4th & 1 at ALA 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:37MSST 4th & 6 at ALA 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    38.2%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:51ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 17, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:07ALA 4th & 9 at MSST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:06MSST 4th & 9 at ALA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:49ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:44MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 9:15MSST 4th & 12 at MSST 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:10MSST 4th & 10 at ALA 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−3.0
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:15MSST 4th & 12 at ALA 37, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.4%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%
    40% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:43ALA 4th & 3 at MSST 24, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%−0.7
    68% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−6.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:25MSST 4th & 29 at MSST 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−2.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:20ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 28, up 21
    Close callPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:27ALA 4th & 5 at MSST 16, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−3.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:51MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 27, down 18
    Close callPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:46ALA 4th & 5 at MSST 19, up 25
    Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:04MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 44, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 8:36ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:10ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:53ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 3:0334% → 35%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
33.5%
Dak Prescott sacked by A'Shawn Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 18Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+16
33.5%
Dak Prescott run for 16 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
33.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 4 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-8
34.2%
Dak Prescott sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 18
OWN 30
0
34.3%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 18
OWN 30
0
34.4%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 18
OWN 30
0
34.6%
Logan Cooke punt for 54 yds, downed at the Alab 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2665% → 65%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
34.9%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 8 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 2
OWN 24
0
34.8%
Jake Coker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 2
OWN 24
0
35.0%
Jake Coker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 2
OWN 24
-5
35.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Ryan Kelly) to the Alab 19Similar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 7
OWN 19
+3
35.3%
JK Scott punt for 37 yds , Fred Ross returns for 3 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 51 yds · 3:3936% → 37%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
35.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Darrion HutchersonSimilar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
35.5%
Prescott, Dak pass incomplete to Gray, Donald, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Jones, Cyrus) 15 yards to the ALABAMA38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
35.7%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the Alab 37Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-11
36.1%
Dak Prescott sacked by Ryan Anderson for a loss of 11 yards to the Alab 48 Dak Prescott fumbled, forced by Ryan Anderson, recovered by MisStSimilar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 20
OPP 48
+17
35.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 17 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+9
36.2%
Fred Ross run for 9 yds to the Alab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+19
36.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 19 yds to the Alab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
37.2%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
37.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya Wilson, broken up by Cyrus JonesSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
37.1%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the Alab 1Similar
Q1 7:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
36.8%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4INT
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:3164% → 63%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
36.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the Alab 7Similar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 5
OWN 7
+20
36.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 5 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (A.J. Jefferson) to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
36.5%
Derrick Henry run for 12 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
36.3%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
36.6%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to O.J. HowardSimilar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
37.0%
Jake Coker pass intercepted Brandon Bryant return for no gain to the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:0837% → 38%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
37.2%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+23
37.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 23 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
38.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
38.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Aeris Williams for 3 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+1
38.7%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the Alab 41Similar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
38.3%
Logan Cooke punt for 32 yds, downed at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3962% → 61%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
38.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 5 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+4
38.1%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 1
OWN 18
-1
38.3%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 17Similar
Q1 1:51
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
39.0%
JK Scott punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0640% → 40%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
40.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
39.5%
Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the MisSt 47 Ashton Shumpert fumbled, recovered by Alab Ryan AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2763% → 61%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
37.2%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Derrick HenrySimilar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-2
37.4%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+3
38.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 3 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
39.1%
JK Scott punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9MISSED FG
5 plays · 55 yds · 0:5440% → 41%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+54
40.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 54 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
42.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Brandon HollowaySimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
42.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 1 yd to the Alab 32Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
42.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+50
41.1%
Westin Graves 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1161% → 60%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
39.2%
Jake Coker pass complete to Derrick Henry for no gain to the Alab 32Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
39.8%
Jake Coker run for 6 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
39.1%
Jake Coker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
40.3%
JK Scott punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0142% → 34%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
41.5%
Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
42.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 8 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
42.3%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
42.7%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
42.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+69
33.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 34 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 69 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1834% → 33%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
34.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
34.3%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 8
OWN 19
-4
33.8%
Dak Prescott sacked by Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 15Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 12
OWN 15
+50
33.1%
Logan Cooke punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the MISSSTATE 45 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (Shawn Burgess-Becker) to the Alab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:3267% → 75%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
33.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 5 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
32.5%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+60
24.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 60 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 2:0526% → 29%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
25.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 8 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+6
25.9%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
25.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 14 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
26.6%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
26.4%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+41
26.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 41 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
27.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Joe MorrowSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
27.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
26.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
29.2%
Westin Graves 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5671% → 82%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.4%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.5%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+74
18.2%
Derrick Henry run for 74 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16DOWNS
14 plays · 38 yds · 4:4021% → 18%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
20.9%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
20.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
20.0%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
20.1%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+5
19.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 5 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+11
19.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 11 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
20.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya Wilson, broken up by Tony BrownSimilar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
19.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred Ross, broken up by Reuben FosterSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+17
19.0%
Dak Prescott run for 17 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
20.5%
Dak Prescott sacked by A'Shawn Robinson for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+1
19.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 1 yd to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+1
18.6%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the Alab 37Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 12
OPP 37
-5
17.7%
Dak Prescott sacked by Ryan Anderson for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17Uncategorized
1 play · -10 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
12.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alphonse Taylor) to the Alab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 4:1786% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
14.5%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+8
14.0%
ArDarius Stewart run for 8 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
13.7%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
13.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to Damien Harris for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 5
50
+19
12.9%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 19 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
12.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 2 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+2
11.7%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+3
11.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 3 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+42
8.4%
Adam Griffith 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 3:1512% → 9%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
11.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Brandon HollowaySimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
11.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+22
11.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 22 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
11.6%
Brandon Holloway run for 1 yd to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+19
11.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 19 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
10.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 4 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+1
10.6%
Brandon Holloway run for 1 yd to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-24
10.2%
Dak Prescott sacked by Tim Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 44 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Donald Gray) to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 29
OWN 41
0
8.7%
Logan Cooke punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0094% → 96%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
6.2%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 19Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+3
5.1%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+6
4.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 6 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
4.4%
JK Scott punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:366% → 10%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
5.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
6.1%
Dak Prescott run for 9 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
6.1%
Dak Prescott run for 8 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+18
6.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 18 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
6.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 5 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+19
6.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 19 yds to the Alab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
6.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Donald Gray) to the Alab 12Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
-2
6.2%
Dak Prescott sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 14Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-7
5.8%
Dak Prescott sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 21 Dak Prescott fumbled, recovered by MisStSimilar
Q3 1:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
0
5.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 0
OPP 21
+39
10.4%
Westin Graves 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22MISSED FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 6:5394% → 96%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
5.8%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
5.6%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
5.6%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
5.5%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
4.9%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
5.0%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
4.5%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+15
4.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 15 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
3.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 9 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+10
3.6%
Derrick Henry run for 10 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
3.5%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
3.5%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
3.4%
Jake Coker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+32
3.6%
Adam Griffith 32 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Tolando ClevelandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:244% → 4%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
4.4%
Brandon Holloway run for 7 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
4.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
4.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
4.3%
Logan Cooke punt for 47 yds, downed at the Alab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:5297% → 100%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
3.5%
Derrick Henry run for 9 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+65
0.4%
Derrick Henry run for 65 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:190% → 0%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+29
0.4%
Dak Prescott pass intercepted Marlon Humphrey return for 29 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
0.3%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
0.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 3 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+2
0.3%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 4:46
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+2
0.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:260% → 0%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
0.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 13 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
0.3%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+8
0.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+3
0.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
0.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-1
0.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+4
0.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 4 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
0.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
0.1%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+8
0.1%
Bo Scarbrough run for 8 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:10
Derrick Henry run for 74 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
-11.4
PUNT · Q2 10:44
Logan Cooke punt for 34 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 69 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q2 8:36
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 60 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
-7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com