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ARK

Arkansas 31 at LSU 14

LSU
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:15 · Jamie Keehn punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Home team on offense−14.3Pregame prior+6.6Score differential−6.8Garbage-time factor−6.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:42: Alex Collins run for 80 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +6.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:55: Alex Collins run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +12.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:24: Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 5 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK) — LSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:10: Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK) — LSU win probability +16.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:18: Jared Cornelius run for 69 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +14.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 10:26LSU 4th & 20 at LSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:05LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:52ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:07LSU 4th & 17 at LSU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:27ARK 4th & 4 at LSU 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    52.0%−1.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:33ARK 4th & 2 at LSU 8, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%−1.9
    90% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−12.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:15LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 47, down 10
    Close callPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:42ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:15LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:56LSU 4th & 20 at LSU 33, down 17
    Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%−1.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:47ARK 4th & 8 at LSU 30, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:40LSU 4th & 10 at ARK 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    3.5%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:08ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 32, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:06ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:42ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:55ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:24LSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:10LSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:18ARK Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1FUMBLE
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:4326% → 27%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
73.7%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
73.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+13
73.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 13 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
73.4%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+2
73.1%
Brandon Allen run for 2 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
72.9%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line Alex Collins fumbled, forced by Christian LaCouture, recovered by LSU Jamal Adams , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:3273% → 73%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
50
0
73.4%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi Dupre, broken up by Josh LiddellSimilar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
50
-4
73.4%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 46Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 14
OWN 46
-6
73.0%
Brandon Harris sacked by Jeremiah Ledbetter and Deatrich Wise Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 10:26
4TH & 20
OWN 40
+14
72.6%
Jamie Keehn punt for 41 yds , D.J. Dean returns for 14 yds to the Ark 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 2:1627% → 31%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
72.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
72.7%
Kody Walker run for 8 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+7
72.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 7 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
71.9%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+52
69.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 52 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4870% → 69%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
70.0%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
69.8%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Leonard FournetteSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+6
69.5%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Darrel Williams for 6 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q1 7:05
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
69.1%
Jamie Keehn punt for 53 yds, fair catch by D.J. Dean at the Ark 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:0431% → 31%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
69.1%
Kody Walker run for 2 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+6
68.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 6 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 2
OWN 32
-7
68.2%
Brandon Allen sacked by Deion Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
68.6%
Toby Baker punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:4068% → 65%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
68.2%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 9 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+4
68.6%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
68.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 11 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
68.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-4
67.8%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 13
OPP 49
-4
66.1%
Brandon Harris sacked by Deatrich Wise Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 47Similar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 17
OWN 47
0
65.1%
Jamie Keehn punt for 44 yds, downed at the Ark 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
4 plays · 91 yds · 1:1735% → 42%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
65.5%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+5
64.8%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
64.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+80
58.3%
Alex Collins run for 80 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
14 plays · 18 yds · 5:1059% → 51%
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
59.4%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+2
58.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+21
57.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 21 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
58.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 5 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
58.0%
Brandon Harris run for 2 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+10
55.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 10 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
55.2%
Fournette, Leonard rush for 10 yards to the ARKANSAS20, PENALTY LSU face mask (Alexander, Vadal) 15 yards to the ARKANSAS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 25
OPP 45
0
54.0%
Brandon Harris run for no gain to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 25
OPP 45
0
53.1%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Darrel WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 25
OPP 45
-10
52.4%
Brandon Harris sacked by Deatrich Wise Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 35
OWN 45
0
51.1%
Jamie Keehn punt for 41 yds, downed at the Ark 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9INT
7 plays · 53 yds · 3:3950% → 54%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+28
50.3%
Kody Walker run for 28 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
48.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 19 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
47.7%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
46.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 2 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+5
46.2%
Allen, Brandon pass incomplete to Morgan, Drew (Toliver II, Kevin), PENALTY LSU offside (Key, Arden) 5 yards to the LSU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-1
45.7%
Kody Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+23
46.0%
Brandon Allen pass intercepted Jamal Adams return for 23 yds to the LSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:3846% → 45%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
45.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Hjalte Froholdt) to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 5
OWN 28
+6
46.6%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
45.4%
Brandon Harris sacked by Dre Greenlaw for a loss of 19 yards to the LSU 11 Brandon Harris fumbled, forced by Dre Greenlaw, recovered by Ark Brooks Ellis , return for 0 yards , return for 4 yds to the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11TD
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:4257% → 69%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
43.1%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
30.9%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 3:1133% → 42%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+20
33.0%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 20 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
33.2%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 8 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+5
33.0%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 5 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
33.2%
Brandon Harris pass complete to John Diarse for 15 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
33.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to John Diarse for 10 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
33.7%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 9 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+15
33.5%
Harris, Brandon pass incomplete to Dural, Travin, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Dean, D.J.) 15 yards to the ARKANSAS10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
33.1%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 5 yds to the Ark 5Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
32.5%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
41.7%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 5 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
36.1%
Kody Walker run for 9 yds to the Ark 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 3:3239% → 54%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+25
39.2%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 25 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
41.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 12 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
41.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+13
41.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 13 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
39.6%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+1
39.3%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the Ark 8Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+6
37.6%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the Ark 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
54.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 5:1956% → 64%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
44.2%
Alex Collins run for 12 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
43.2%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete, broken up by Jamal AdamsSimilar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-1
43.1%
Kody Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 45Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+11
43.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 11 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
41.4%
Drew Morgan run for 9 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+9
40.6%
Kody Walker run for 9 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
39.1%
Kody Walker run for 5 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+4
38.4%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 1
OPP 7
-1
38.3%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 8Similar
Q3 5:33
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
35.6%
Cole Hedlund 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 4:0535% → 30%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
34.6%
Leonard Fournette run for 5 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
34.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+12
32.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 12 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
34.5%
Brandon Harris sacked by D.J. Dean and Brooks Ellis for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+6
31.7%
Darrel Williams run for 6 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-5
31.7%
LSU Penalty, False Start (William Clapp) to the LSU 39Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+8
29.6%
Brandon Harris pass complete to John Diarse for 8 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
29.5%
Jamie Keehn punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:2670% → 70%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
30.5%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+18
30.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 18 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
27.0%
Kody Walker run for 3 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
27.2%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-3
27.5%
Brandon Allen sacked by Arden Key for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 13:42
4TH & 10
OWN 40
-3
29.7%
Toby Baker punt for 42 yds , Donte Jackson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:2226% → 22%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
26.3%
Brandon Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 11Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 14
OWN 11
0
25.3%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the LSU 11Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+33
23.0%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 33 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
26.5%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin Dural, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
24.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 2 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
23.4%
Brandon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
22.0%
Jamie Keehn punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:4778% → 93%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
22.0%
Kody Walker run for 11 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
7.3%
Jared Cornelius run for 69 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 17 yds · 1:597% → 6%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
7.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to John Diarse for 9 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 1
OWN 36
-4
7.6%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Vadal Alexander) to the LSU 32Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+11
7.2%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Trey Quinn for 11 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
7.2%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
6.8%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi Dupre, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 15
OWN 38
-5
6.5%
Harris, Brandon pass complete to Fournette, Leonard for 8 yards to the LSU46, PENALTY LSU illegal formation 5 yards to the LSU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 20
OWN 33
0
6.4%
Brandon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 20
OWN 33
0
6.3%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Leonard Fournette, broken up by Jeremiah LedbetterSimilar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 20
OWN 33
+11
6.2%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 11 yds to the LSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:0296% → 97%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
4.3%
Alex Collins run for 9 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+3
3.8%
Kody Walker run for 3 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
3.5%
Jared Cornelius run for 2 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
3.0%
Kody Walker run for no gain to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
2.9%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 8
OPP 30
0
2.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Dominique ReedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22INT
7 plays · 59 yds · 1:113% → 4%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
3.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Colin Jeter for 13 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
3.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Colin Jeter for 24 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
4.0%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to John Diarse, broken up by Henre' ToliverSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
3.8%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
3.6%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+22
3.4%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 22 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
3.9%
Brandon Harris pass intercepted, touchback. D.J. Dean return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23END OF GAME
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:1898% → 99%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
2.1%
Kody Walker run for 6 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
1.9%
Kody Walker run for 7 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
1.4%
Kody Walker run for no gain to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
1.3%
Kody Walker run for 3 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-4
1.2%
Kody Walker run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 11
OWN 32
+13
1.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 13 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:10
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)
+16.6
TD · Q4 10:18
Jared Cornelius run for 69 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q2 3:55
Alex Collins run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com