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CIT

The Citadel 23 at South Carolina 22

SC
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadCIT aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreCIT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Sean Kelly punt for 43 yds , DeAndre Schoultz returns for no gain to the Citad 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+42.9Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:31: Tyler Renew run for 7 yds for a TD, (Eric Goins KICK) — CIT win probability +4.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: CIT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:22: Brandon Wilds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +7.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 10:26: Eric Goins 48 yd FG GOOD — CIT win probability +11.4 pts (now 41%) (top driver: CIT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:40: Pharoh Cooper 41 Yd pass from Perry Orth (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — SC win probability +21.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:07: Tyler Renew 56 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — CIT win probability +33.8 pts (now 56%) (top driver: CIT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 9 of 10CIT made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00SC 4th & 2 at SC 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:52SC 4th & 5 at CIT 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    88.0%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:31SC 4th & 3 at SC 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    83.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00SC 4th & 1 at CIT 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    80.2%−0.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    80.4%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:55SC 4th & 7 at CIT 7, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:55CIT 4th & 5 at SC 38, up 8
    Close callPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    20.6%−0.5
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:12SC 4th & 8 at CIT 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:12CIT 4th & 17 at CIT 18, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−2.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:02SC 4th & 12 at SC 42, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:03CIT 4th & 11 at CIT 19, up 5
    Numbers favored punt by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00CIT 4th & 3 at SC 42, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    30.4%−2.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:21CIT 4th & 9 at CIT 26, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:27SC 4th & 13 at SC 46, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−2.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00CIT 4th & 1 at SC 26, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−3.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−12.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:26CIT 4th & 16 at SC 31, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−4.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−4.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:07SC 4th & 1 at CIT 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    46.2%−8.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−8.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:35CIT 4th & 5 at SC 39, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.8 ptsPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    64.0%−3.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%−5.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:39SC 4th & 10 at SC 3, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.2%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2CIT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:26CIT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:31CIT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:22SC Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:40SC Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    79.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:07CIT Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    48.9%−2.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    51.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
92.9%
Brandon Wilds run for 2 yds to the SCaro 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+7
92.9%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 7 yds to the SCaro 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 20
-1
92.9%
Brandon Wilds run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 19Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
92.9%
Sean Kelly punt for 43 yds , DeAndre Schoultz returns for no gain to the Citad 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 2TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:448% → 8%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
92.4%
Cam Jackson run for 3 yds to the Citad 41Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+59
91.9%
Cam Jackson run for 59 yds for a TD, (Eric Goins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:3492% → 91%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
92.0%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 25Similar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+40
92.0%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 40 yds to the Citad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
92.1%
Perry Orth pass complete to Jerell Adams for 12 yds to the Citad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
92.1%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 10 yards to the CIT13 (Mark Thomas), PENALTY SC FL 5 yards to the CIT28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+5
92.1%
Brandon Wilds run for 5 yds to the Citad 23Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
92.1%
Perry Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+5
92.0%
Perry Orth pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 5 yds to the Citad 18Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
91.4%
Elliott Fry 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 4TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:219% → 13%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.3%
Tyler Renew run for 5 yds to the Citad 30Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
91.2%
Cam Jackson rush for 2 yards to the CIT32 (Allen-Williams), PENALTY CIT illegal motion 5 yards to the CIT25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
91.3%
Vinny Miller run for 12 yds to the Citad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
91.2%
Cam Jackson run for 3 yds to the Citad 40Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
91.2%
Cam Jackson run for 6 yds to the Citad 46Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
91.2%
Dominique Allen run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
50
+4
91.1%
Tyler Renew run for 4 yds to the SCaro 46Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+4
91.1%
Tyler Renew run for 4 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
91.1%
Tyler Renew run for 4 yds to the SCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
91.1%
Tyler Renew run for 10 yds to the SCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
91.1%
Tyler Renew run for 12 yds to the SCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
91.1%
Cam Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 18Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+11
91.1%
Tyler Renew run for 3 yds to the SCaro 15 for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (T.J. Holloman) to the SCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
86.6%
Tyler Renew run for 7 yds for a TD, (Eric Goins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 5:3687% → 84%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
87.0%
Brandon Wilds run for 8 yds to the SCaro 41Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+1
87.3%
Brandon Wilds run for 1 yd to the SCaro 42Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-2
87.2%
Brandon Wilds run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 40Similar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+9
86.9%
Perry Orth pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 9 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
87.3%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Pharoh CooperSimilar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
87.3%
Brandon Wilds run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 48Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+10
87.0%
Perry Orth pass complete to Jerell Adams for 10 yds to the Citad 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+1
84.3%
Perry Orth run for 1 yd to the Citad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
84.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 3 yds to the Citad 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+30
84.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Jerell Adams for 30 yds to the Citad 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
85.1%
Perry Orth run for 1 yd to the Citad 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
85.1%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Pharoh CooperSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
84.7%
Perry Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
83.5%
Elliott Fry 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
83.0%
Dominique Allen pass complete to Brandon Eakins for 3 yds to the Citad 26Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+4
82.8%
Isiaha Smith run for 4 yds to the Citad 30Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+14
82.9%
Dominique Allen run for 14 yds to the Citad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
82.2%
Cam Jackson run for 9 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+4
81.9%
Dominique Allen run for 4 yds to the SCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
82.0%
Isiaha Smith run for 5 yds to the SCaro 38Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-6
81.9%
Cam Jackson run for 4 yds to the SCaro 34 THE CITADEL Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SCaro 44Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
82.0%
Dominique Allen pass incomplete to Isiaha SmithSimilar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+6
82.3%
Dominique Allen run for 6 yds to the SCaro 38Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
82.6%
Will Vanvick punt for 31 yds, downed at the SCaro 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:2378% → 80%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
78.3%
Brandon Wilds run for 11 yds to the SCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
78.5%
Perry Orth pass complete to Jerell Adams for 14 yds to the SCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
78.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 6 yds to the SCaro 38Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
79.8%
Perry Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+11
79.1%
Perry Orth pass complete to Matrick Belton for 11 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
79.9%
Perry Orth rush for 3 yards to the CIT48 (Joe Crochet), PENALTY SC illegal block (Alan Knott) 15 yards to the SC34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 25
OWN 34
0
78.5%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Brandon WildsSimilar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 25
OWN 34
+14
78.5%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 14 yds to the SCaro 48Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+27
78.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Jerell Adams for 27 yds to the Citad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
80.9%
Brandon Wilds run for 1 yd to the Citad 24Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+1
77.8%
David Williams run for 1 yd to the Citad 23Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
76.7%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to David Williams, broken up by James RileySimilar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
79.8%
Elliott Fry 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.8%
Dominique Allen run for 1 yd to the Citad 26Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
77.9%
Cam Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Citad 25Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
78.6%
THE CITADEL Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Citad 20Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-2
78.8%
Dominique Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Citad 18Similar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
79.3%
Will Vanvick punt for 50 yds , Pharoh Cooper returns for no gain to the SCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
77.1%
Brandon Wilds run for 6 yds to the SCaro 38Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+6
78.5%
Perry Orth pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 6 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
78.4%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Pharoh CooperSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
77.5%
Brandon Wilds run for 3 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-5
77.9%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Jerell Adams) to the SCaro 42Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 12
OWN 42
0
76.4%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Brandon WildsSimilar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
76.0%
Sean Kelly punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 2 yds · 1:0525% → 27%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
75.0%
Dominique Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Citad 19Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+5
74.5%
Cam Jackson run for 5 yds to the Citad 24Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-10
73.9%
Dominique Allen pass complete to Brandon Eakins for 11 yards to the CIT35 (T.J. Holloman), PENALTY CIT holding (Mike Mabry) 10 yards to the CIT14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+5
74.4%
Tyler Renew run for 5 yds to the Citad 19Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+3
73.4%
Dominique Allen run for 3 yds to the Citad 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
71.9%
Tyler Renew run for 14 yds to the Citad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
70.4%
Dominique Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Citad 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+8
71.8%
Reggie Williams run for 8 yds to the Citad 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+6
70.5%
Tyler Renew run for 6 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
69.8%
Tyler Renew run for 2 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+1
69.8%
Dominique Allen run for 1 yd to the SCaro 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+4
70.2%
Tyler Renew run for 4 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
71.6%
Will Vanvick punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:0969% → 81%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
68.8%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the SCaro 23Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
68.7%
Perry Orth pass complete to Terry Googer for 8 yds to the SCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
69.3%
Brandon Wilds run for 4 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
70.3%
Brandon Wilds run for no gain to the SCaro 35Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+12
68.5%
Perry Orth pass complete to Jerell Adams for 12 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
71.5%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Jerell Adams, broken up by Malik DiggsSimilar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
71.2%
Perry Orth pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 7
50
+47
70.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 47 yds to the Citad 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
73.3%
Brandon Wilds run for 2 yds to the Citad 1Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.2%
Brandon Wilds run for no gain to the Citad 1Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.2%
Brandon Wilds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.3%
Tyler Renew run for 1 yd to the Citad 26Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
78.4%
Reggie Williams run for 1 yd to the Citad 27Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-1
79.2%
Dominique Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Citad 26Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-3
80.2%
Will Vanvick punt for 39 yds , Pharoh Cooper returns for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
78.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 5 yds to the SCaro 37Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+3
80.2%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 3 yds to the SCaro 40Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+9
79.8%
Shon Carson run for 9 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
80.9%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Jerell AdamsSimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-3
80.3%
David Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 46Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 13
OWN 46
0
78.0%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Hayden Hurst, broken up by Shy PhillipsSimilar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
77.5%
Sean Kelly punt for 47 yds, downed at the Citad 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 15FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 6:3723% → 41%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
76.6%
Tyler Renew run for 4 yds to the Citad 11Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+11
76.0%
Reggie Williams run for 11 yds to the Citad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
75.6%
Tyler Renew run for 9 yds to the Citad 31Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+34
73.7%
Dominique Allen pass complete to Alex Glover for 34 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
68.9%
Tyler Renew run for 5 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+2
68.8%
Reggie Williams run for 2 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+2
70.4%
Dominique Allen run for 2 yds to the SCaro 26Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+1
72.3%
Dominique Allen run for 1 yd to the SCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
68.8%
THE CITADEL Penalty, false start (Kyle Weaver) to the SCaro 30Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+5
69.7%
Tyler Renew run for 5 yds to the SCaro 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
69.0%
Reggie Williams run for 4 yds to the SCaro 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
-10
70.4%
Dominique Allen sacked by Jonathan Walton for a loss of 10 yards to the SCaro 31Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 16
OPP 31
+48
59.0%
Eric Goins 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:4662% → 87%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
61.9%
Perry Orth pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 5 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+18
62.4%
Shon Carson run for 18 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
66.1%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Jerell AdamsSimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+10
65.4%
Perry Orth pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 10 yds to the Citad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
86.7%
Pharoh Cooper 41 Yd pass from Perry Orth (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3319% → 56%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.0%
Dominique Allen run for 5 yds to the Citad 30Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
79.9%
Tyler Renew run for 5 yds to the Citad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
80.0%
THE CITADEL Penalty, false start (Tyler Renew) to the Citad 30Similar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+11
81.1%
Cam Jackson run for 11 yds to the Citad 41Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
77.7%
Tyler Renew run for 3 yds to the Citad 44Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+56
43.9%
Tyler Renew 56 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0056% → 60%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
56.4%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 21 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
61.2%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 8 yds to the Citad 47Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 2
OPP 47
-1
63.0%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for a loss of 1 yard to the Citad 48Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
61.7%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the Citad 46Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
59.8%
David Williams run for no gain to the Citad 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 2:3260% → 70%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
40.1%
Cam Jackson run for 7 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
39.0%
Cam Jackson run for 2 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
39.4%
Tyler Renew run for 1 yd to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
39.2%
Dominique Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 46Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+5
33.8%
Tyler Renew run for 5 yds to the SCaro 41Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+2
31.1%
Dominique Allen run for 2 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
29.6%
Will Vanvick punt for 36 yds, downed at the SCaro 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4745% → 34%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
45.1%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Jerell AdamsSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
44.4%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Pharoh Cooper, broken up by Mariel CooperSimilar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+3
42.6%
Perry Orth pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 3 yds to the SCaro 6Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 7
OWN 6
-3
34.3%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 94 yards to the CIT0, clock 00:39, PENALTY SC false start 3 yards to the SC3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 10
OWN 3
+8
34.3%
Perry Orth pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 8 yds to the SCaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q4 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
13.9%
THE CITADEL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the SCaro 25Similar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
13.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:07
Tyler Renew 56 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-33.8
TD · Q4 8:40
Pharoh Cooper 41 Yd pass from Perry Orth (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+21.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com