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LSU

LSU 17 at Ole Miss 38

MISS
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:53 · Will Gleeson punt for 37 yds, downed at the LSU 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 190Home team on offense+33.6Score differential+24.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+16.9Garbage-time factor+13.9Pregame prior+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+9.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:13: Chad Kelly 5 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick) — MISS win probability +9.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:24: Laquon Treadwell 11 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick) — MISS win probability +10.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:14: Tyron Johnson 39 Yd pass from Brandon Harris (Trent Domingue Kick) — LSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 20%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:04: William Clapp 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Trent Domingue Kick) — LSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 32%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:34: Chad Kelly 11 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick) — MISS win probability +9.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 9LSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 12:41MISS 4th & 1 at LSU 15, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.2%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:13LSU 4th & 16 at LSU 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:48MISS 4th & 4 at LSU 49, up 3
    Close callPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:00LSU 4th & 5 at MISS 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:38MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 26, up 3
    Close callPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:53LSU 4th & 3 at MISS 37, down 3
    Close callPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    36.3%−0.7
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:49LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:55LSU 4th & 13 at LSU 14, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−3.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:41MISS 4th & 12 at MISS 30, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:28MISS 4th & 14 at MISS 43, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:54LSU 4th & 4 at MISS 26, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.6%−0.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−7.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:47LSU 4th & 14 at LSU 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−2.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:43MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 44, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:05LSU 4th & 5 at MISS 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:00MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:24LSU 4th & 10 at MISS 21, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−1.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:08LSU 4th & 1 at MISS 1, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−2.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:53MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 19, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:34LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 44, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:52MISS 4th & 20 at MISS 46, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 12:30MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:13MISS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:24MISS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:14LSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:04LSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:34MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:32MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1FG
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:0459% → 59%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+57
58.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 57 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
59.0%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the LSU 24Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
59.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 9 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
59.2%
Chad Kelly run for no gain to the LSU 15Similar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+32
59.3%
Gary Wunderlich 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 5 yds · 4:2841% → 40%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
59.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 13 yds to the LSU 21 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LSU 11Similar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 7
OWN 11
+2
59.3%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+4
59.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+2
59.5%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
59.5%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
59.6%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 6
OWN 23
-5
59.9%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LSU 18Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 11
OWN 18
0
60.0%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the LSU 18Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 11
OWN 18
-5
60.4%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Tre'Davious White) to the LSU 13Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 16
OWN 13
0
60.5%
Jamie Keehn punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1260% → 60%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
60.3%
Laquon Treadwell run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 15
OWN 40
0
59.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 15
OWN 40
-5
59.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Laremy Tunsil) to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 20
OWN 35
+16
59.3%
Chad Kelly run for 16 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
59.9%
Will Gleeson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4MISSED FG
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:3040% → 40%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
60.1%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Bry'Kiethon Mouton for 16 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
59.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+5
60.0%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Trey Quinn for 5 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+46
59.7%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 46 yds to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
58.8%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+2
58.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 2 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
59.2%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
59.9%
Trent Domingue 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1260% → 59%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
60.1%
Akeem Judd run for 7 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
60.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-1
59.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 1:38
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+21
59.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 39 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 21 yds to the Miss 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3741% → 40%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
58.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+6
58.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 2
OPP 36
-1
59.5%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
60.3%
Jamie Keehn punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:1561% → 69%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
60.9%
Chad Kelly run for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+27
61.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 27 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
62.5%
Akeem Judd run for 4 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+20
62.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 20 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
63.3%
Akeem Judd run for 8 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+4
63.3%
Akeem Judd run for 4 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
63.4%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete to Walton, Jaylen, PENALTY LSU offside (Louis, Lamar) 5 yards to the LSU8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 5
OPP 8
0
63.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+6
63.5%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete to Treadwell, Laquon, PENALTY LSU pass interference (White, Tre'Davious) 6 yards to the LSU2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q2 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.6%
Jaylen Walton 2 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:2532% → 30%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
67.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-5
68.0%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Vadal Alexander) to the LSU 17Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+9
68.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 9 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 3
OWN 26
-3
68.6%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+46
70.0%
Jamie Keehn punt for 46 yds , Collins Moore returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 2:3169% → 82%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
68.7%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+16
68.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for 16 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
69.9%
Akeem Judd run for 6 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+5
70.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 5 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
70.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 16 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
70.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+11
70.8%
Chad Kelly run for 11 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
71.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 14 yds to the LSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
72.2%
Akeem Judd run for 1 yd to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
72.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Fahn Cooper) to the LSU 5Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.1%
Chad Kelly 5 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:1021% → 20%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
78.8%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 14Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 13
OWN 14
0
80.0%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Tyron JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 13
OWN 14
0
80.2%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Leonard FournetteSimilar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 13
OWN 14
0
80.4%
Jamie Keehn punt for 54 yds , Collins Moore returns for no gain to the Miss 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0483% → 83%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
83.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 1 yd to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
83.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-5
82.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Aaron Morris) to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 14
OWN 28
-5
82.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Jordan Sims) to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 19
OWN 23
+7
82.8%
Chad Kelly run for 7 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
82.8%
Will Gleeson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:0020% → 19%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
80.4%
Brandon Harris pass complete to John Diarse for 7 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+4
79.6%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+36
80.8%
Brandon Harris pass intercepted Christian Russell return for 36 yds to the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
91.6%
Laquon Treadwell 11 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5611% → 20%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
89.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
88.6%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
89.4%
Brandon Harris run for 11 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
89.5%
Brandon Harris run for 2 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+12
89.6%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 12 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
80.4%
Tyron Johnson 39 Yd pass from Brandon Harris (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:3786% → 84%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+20
85.9%
Chad Kelly run for 20 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
86.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 14 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
86.6%
Chad Kelly sacked by Davon Godchaux for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 14
OWN 43
0
86.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 14
OWN 43
0
86.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 14
OWN 43
+20
84.1%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 40 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 20 yds to the LSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:2318% → 12%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
82.1%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 15 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
80.4%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 15
OWN 47
-10
87.1%
Harris, Brandon pass incomplete, PENALTY LSU holding (Alexander, Vadal) 10 yards to the LSU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 25
OWN 37
0
88.4%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Leonard FournetteSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 25
OWN 37
0
88.5%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 25
OWN 37
+8
88.5%
Brandon Harris sacked for loss of 3 yards to LSU 34, Brandon Harris fumbled, forced by Channing Ward, recovered by Miss Marquis Haynes at LSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17FUMBLE
7 plays · 54 yds · 1:5617% → 20%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
83.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Colin Jeter for 16 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+32
83.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 32 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
81.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
81.2%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Darrel WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+3
82.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Darrel Williams for 3 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
80.2%
Trent Domingue 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:3622% → 32%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
78.0%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Colin Jeter for 11 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
78.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 7 yds to the Miss 7Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+6
78.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
79.0%
Darrel Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 2Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
79.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the Miss 1Similar
Q3 10:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.6%
William Clapp 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 2:2174% → 88%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
73.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 5 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+11
74.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 11 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
74.4%
Chad Kelly run for 9 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+35
76.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 20 yds to the OLEMISS 38 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Donte Jackson) to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
77.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 3 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+9
78.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 9 yds to the LSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
87.5%
Chad Kelly 11 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:4316% → 14%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.2%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Bry'Kiethon MoutonSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
84.4%
Harris, Brandon pass incomplete to Dupre, Malachi, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Dupre, Malachi) 12 yards to the LSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
84.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for no gain to the LSU 13Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+8
85.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Colin Jeter for 8 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
85.8%
Jamie Keehn punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:0988% → 97%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
88.1%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
88.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 8 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+17
88.2%
Akeem Judd run for 17 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
89.1%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
89.3%
Akeem Judd run for 6 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 4
OPP 26
-10
89.2%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete to Pack, Markell, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Bell, Justin) 10 yards to the LSU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 14
OPP 36
+36
96.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 36 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22INT
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:144% → 3%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.2%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
96.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+24
96.2%
Brandon Harris run for 24 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
96.6%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Toby Weathersby) to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+4
96.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
97.0%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:1798% → 98%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
98.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 8 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
98.1%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
98.0%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Jaylen WaltonSimilar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
97.9%
Will Gleeson punt for 34 yds, downed at the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:342% → 2%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
97.9%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Leonard FournetteSimilar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
97.9%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Tyron JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+12
98.0%
Brandon Harris pass complete to John Diarse for 12 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
98.1%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 8 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+10
98.1%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 10 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.2%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
98.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 5 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
98.4%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Colin JeterSimilar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
98.4%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
98.6%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
98.7%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
98.7%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
98.6%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 42 yds, downed at the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26FUMBLE
18 plays · 80 yds · 4:511% → 1%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
98.6%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Toby Weathersby) to the LSU 6Similar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+13
98.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 13 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+8
98.6%
Darrel Williams run for 8 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
98.6%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Darrel Williams for 18 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.6%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Colin JeterSimilar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
98.6%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Tyron JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+21
98.7%
Brandon Harris run for 21 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
98.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 13 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
98.3%
Brandon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
98.3%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Colin JeterSimilar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
98.5%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+20
98.6%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 20 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.3%
Darrel Williams run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+2
98.4%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 3 Leonard Fournette fumbled, recovered by LSU Brandon Harris Brandon Harris run for 2 yds to the Miss 3Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.7%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q4 6:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-8
99.0%
Brandon Harris run for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 9 Brandon Harris fumbled, recovered by LSU Brandon HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
99.6%
Akeem Judd run for 5 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+3
99.6%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+3
99.6%
Chad Kelly run for 3 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
99.7%
Akeem Judd run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 17Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+3
99.7%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.7%
Chad Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 19Similar
Q4 2:53
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
99.8%
Will Gleeson punt for 37 yds, downed at the LSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 28DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:151% → 0%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.5%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
99.5%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
99.5%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
99.6%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 1:38100% → 100%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Eugene Brazley run for no gain to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
99.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Justin Bell) to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 15
OPP 49
0
99.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for no gain to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 15
OPP 49
0
99.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 15
OPP 49
-5
99.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Zedrick Woods) to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 20
OWN 46
0
99.8%
Will Gleeson punt for 34 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for no gain to the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 30END OF GAME
6 plays · 40 yds · 0:451% → 0%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
99.5%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 11 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
99.5%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Trey Quinn for 7 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+11
99.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Colin Jeter for 11 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
99.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 11 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:04
William Clapp 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Trent Domingue Kick)
-11.7
TD · Q2 3:24
Laquon Treadwell 11 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick)
+10.8
TD · Q2 7:13
Chad Kelly 5 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)
+9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com