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TENN

Tennessee 19 at Missouri 8

MIZ
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:32 · Corey Fatony punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior−18.9Home team on offense−4.8Score differential−2.1Garbage-time factor−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:17: Joshua Dobbs run for 8 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +10.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 5:13: Aaron Medley 30 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +4.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:42: Alvin Kamara run for 20 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST down — TENN win probability +5.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:59: Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 22 — TENN win probability +4.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:49: Drew Lock run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Lock pass to Jason Reese for Two-Point Conversion) — MIZ win probability +6.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 9 of 11TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 12
  1. Q1 8:19TENN 4th & 4 at MIZ 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.3%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:15MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 29, down 3
    Close callPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:28TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 49, up 3
    Close callPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:03MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:05TENN 4th & 3 at MIZ 4, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:58MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 9, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:59TENN 4th & 9 at MIZ 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:32TENN 4th & 4 at MIZ 12, up 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.5%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−3.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:32MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 38, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:46TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 39, up 9
    Close callPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:44MIZ 4th & 11 at MIZ 19, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:53TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 47, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:33MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 10, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:13TENN 4th & 11 at MIZ 12, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−5.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:08MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 20, down 19
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:42TENN 4th & 9 at MIZ 39, up 19
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:47MIZ 4th & 10 at TENN 48, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 21, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:10MIZ 4th & 1 at TENN 41, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%−3.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−3.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:49MIZ 4th & 1 at TENN 1, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−5.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:42TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 49, up 11
    Close callPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%−0.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 7:55MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:43TENN 4th & 12 at MIZ 41, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 0:17TENN Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 9:49MIZ Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1INT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
23.0%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Misso 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
23.0%
Russell Hansbrough run for 6 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+4
23.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 4 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
23.0%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Misso 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-3
23.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 42
0
23.0%
Drew Lock pass intercepted Preston Williams return for no gain to the Tenn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:4376% → 74%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
24.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+13
24.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 13 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
24.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+4
24.1%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive offside (Walter Brady) to the Misso 23Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+1
24.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 1 yd to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
24.1%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+5
24.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 5 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 3
OPP 15
-1
24.2%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 16Similar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+34
25.7%
Aaron Medley 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
25.8%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-3
25.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 22Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+7
25.5%
Ish Witter run for 7 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
25.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
26.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
26.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+3
26.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 3 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
26.6%
Trevor Daniel punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
26.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Misso 7Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+1
26.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jason Reese for 1 yd to the Misso 8Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 7
OWN 8
0
26.4%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Misso 8Similar
Q1 5:03
4TH & 7
OWN 8
0
26.2%
Corey Fatony punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:0173% → 74%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
27.1%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+5
27.1%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive offside (A.J. Logan) to the Misso 33Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 3
OPP 33
0
26.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alvin Kamara, broken up by Walter BradySimilar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+22
27.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 22 yds to the Misso 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
26.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Misso 7Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
26.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 3 yds to the Misso 4Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
27.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Von Pearson, broken up by Anthony SherrilsSimilar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+22
26.4%
Aaron Medley 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
27.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Misso 9Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 7
OWN 9
0
27.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 7
OWN 9
0
26.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 7
OWN 9
+1
26.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 44 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 1 yd to the Tenn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:1174% → 74%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
26.3%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 43Similar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+31
26.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 31 yds to the Misso 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
25.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 6 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-5
25.9%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+3
26.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 22
-3
26.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+44
25.7%
Aaron Medley 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 40 yds · 0:0025% → 27%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
25.2%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Hilton, Cam, PENALTY UT pass interference (Randolph, B.) 12 yards to the MIZ35, 1ST DOWN MIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
25.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Keyon Dilosa for 21 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
26.5%
Ish Witter run for 6 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
26.6%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Tenn 37 Ish Witter fumbled, forced by LaTroy Lewis, recovered by Tenn Darrin Kirkland Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10MISSED FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 3:3674% → 74%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
25.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 3 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+18
25.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 18 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
25.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+7
25.1%
Alvin Kamara run for 7 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
24.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 1 yd to the Misso 31Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+4
24.9%
Alvin Kamara run for 4 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+9
25.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 9 yds to the Misso 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
24.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Misso 17Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
24.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
25.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+5
25.8%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive offside (Rickey Hatley) to the Misso 12Similar
Q2 8:32
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+31
25.6%
Aaron Medley 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
25.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for 5 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
26.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 9 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
26.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
26.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 4 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
26.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley Leftwich, broken up by Emmanuel MoseleySimilar
Q2 8:32
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
25.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0075% → 76%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
24.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 11 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
24.1%
Alvin Kamara run for 6 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+3
23.4%
Alvin Kamara run for 3 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-3
23.4%
Alvin Kamara run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 39Similar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
24.2%
Trevor Daniel punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
25.7%
Drew Lock sacked by Kahlil McKenzie for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 15Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+4
25.5%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
25.0%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:44
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
24.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 45 yds, downed at the Tenn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:0176% → 88%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
23.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
23.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+7
23.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 7 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
23.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+15
23.2%
Dobbs, J. pass incomplete to Malone, J. (Dennis, Kenya), PENALTY MIZ pass interference (Dennis, Kenya) 15 yards to the MIZ34, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
22.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 8 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 2
OPP 26
-2
22.8%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 28Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+14
23.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 14 yds to the Misso 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
22.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
22.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 6 yds to the Misso 8Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
12.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 8 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
16.9%
Drew Lock sacked by Corey Vereen for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
14.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-1
14.5%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 25Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+21
14.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 21 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
13.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 6
50
-1
13.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 49Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-2
13.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 47Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 9
OWN 47
+1
14.7%
Trevor Daniel punt for 44 yds , Aarion Penton returns for 1 yd to the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
14.9%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Misso 12Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+1
14.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 1 yd to the Misso 13Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-3
14.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ish Witter for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 10Similar
Q3 11:33
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+3
14.6%
Corey Fatony punt for 37 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 3 yds to the Misso 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 4:1989% → 94%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
11.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Von Pearson, broken up by Charles HarrisSimilar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
11.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 10 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
11.2%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Misso 34Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
11.3%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Misso 34Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+23
11.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 23 yds to the Misso 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
11.0%
Alvin Kamara run for 6 yds to the Misso 5Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 4
OPP 5
-3
11.0%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 8Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 7
OPP 8
-4
11.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 12Similar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+30
6.2%
Aaron Medley 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
10.0%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+8
9.9%
Ish Witter run for 8 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+1
10.0%
Tyler Hunt run for 1 yd to the Misso 20Similar
Q3 5:08
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+40
10.0%
Corey Fatony punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the MISSOURI 35 MISSOURI Penalty, illegal shift (Ian Simon) to the Tenn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
4.6%
Alvin Kamara run for 20 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
4.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for no gain to the Misso 40Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
4.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-5
4.4%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (Kyler Kerbyson) to the Misso 39Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
4.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
5.0%
Trevor Daniel punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Aarion Penton at the Misso 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 44 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+44
7.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 44 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
8.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
8.3%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
8.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q3 1:47
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
8.0%
Corey Fatony punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5996% → 96%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
3.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-3
3.9%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+2
3.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+22
4.0%
Trevor Daniel punt for 51 yds , Aarion Penton returns for 22 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23TD
12 plays · 50 yds · 4:216% → 14%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
50
0
6.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
50
-10
6.2%
Lock, Drew rush for 3 yards to the UT47 (Foreman, M.), PENALTY MIZ holding (Hall, Mitch) 10 yards to the MIZ40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 20
OWN 40
0
5.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel Hall, broken up by Jalen Reeves-MaybinSimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 20
OWN 40
+19
5.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Cam Hilton for 19 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
6.5%
Tyler Hunt run for 2 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
6.5%
Tyler Hunt run for 5 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+11
7.1%
Drew Lock run for 11 yds to the Tenn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+22
7.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Cam Hilton for 22 yds to the Tenn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon Moore, broken up by Emmanuel MoseleySimilar
Q4 14:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.8%
Tyler Hunt run for no gain to the Tenn 1Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.7%
Tyler Hunt run for no gain to the Tenn 1Similar
Q4 9:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.1%
Drew Lock run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Lock pass to Jason Reese for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
10.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+4
10.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
10.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
11.3%
Trevor Daniel punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
12.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
11.9%
Russell Hansbrough run for 10 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
12.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jason Reese for 4 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
12.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+1
12.0%
Drew Lock run for 1 yd to the Misso 35Similar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
11.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:2591% → 93%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
8.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 11 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
8.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 11 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
8.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 8
50
0
8.0%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 8
50
+11
6.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 11 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
6.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Misso 38Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
6.3%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Misso 38Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 9
OPP 38
-2
6.4%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 41 Jalen Hurd fumbled, recovered by Tenn Joshua Dobbs , return for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 41Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
7.0%
Trevor Daniel punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Aarion Penton at the Misso 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
4.0%
Drew Lock run for 5 yds to the Misso 13Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 5
OWN 13
0
4.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+22
3.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 22 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
4.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 6 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
5.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley Leftwich, broken up by Cameron SuttonSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
4.8%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:17
Joshua Dobbs run for 8 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q4 9:49
Drew Lock run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Lock pass to Jason Reese for Two-Point Conversion)
+6.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 3:42
Alvin Kamara run for 20 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST down
-5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com