Try the model
IDHO

Idaho 34 at Auburn 56

AUB
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadIDHO aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreIDHO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:46 · Kevin Phillips run for 24 yds to the Idaho 33 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Pregame prior+40.8Home team on offense+1.9Score differential−0.1Blowout margin−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 14:56: Austin Rehkow 25 yd FG GOOD — IDHO win probability +1.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:44: Jeremy Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:58: Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +2.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:02: Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Tony Stevens for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:18: Jake Luton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK) — IDHO win probability +0.6 pts (now 1%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5IDHO made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 11:32AUB 4th & 10 at IDHO 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:25IDHO 4th & 4 at IDHO 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:56IDHO 4th & 8 at AUB 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:46AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 43, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:47IDHO 4th & 1 at IDHO 34, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:25AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 27, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:33IDHO 4th & 11 at IDHO 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00IDHO 4th & 3 at IDHO 32, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:02IDHO 4th & 3 at IDHO 32, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:24IDHO 4th & 2 at AUB 27, down 32
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:14AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 29, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00IDHO 4th & 18 at IDHO 42, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:44AUB 4th & 20 at AUB 38, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:38IDHO 4th & 10 at IDHO 45, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 8IDHO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:31AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:38IDHO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:49AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:44AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:58AUB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:47AUB Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:25IDHO Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:02AUB Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:30AUB Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:46AUB Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:19IDHO Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 5:18IDHO Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:2998% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
97.6%
Ricardo Louis run for 12 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
97.6%
Peyton Barber run for 5 yds to the Idaho 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
97.6%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Idaho 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+10
97.6%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Tony Stevens for 10 yds to the Idaho 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
97.6%
Jeremy Johnson run for 20 yds to the Idaho 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
97.6%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Tony Stevens for 13 yds to the Idaho 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
97.6%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the Idaho 2 Peyton Barber fumbled, forced by Kevin Shelton, recovered by Aub Peyton BarberSimilar
Q1 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.4%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 2TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:533% → 3%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+71
97.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 71 yds to the Aub 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.1%
Elijhaa Penny run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
97.2%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Marcus Davis for 14 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
97.2%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 7 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
97.2%
Jovon Robinson run for no gain to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+10
97.2%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Melvin Ray for 10 yds to the Idaho 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
97.2%
Jovon Robinson run for 1 yd to the Idaho 48Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+4
97.2%
Jovon Robinson run for 4 yds to the Idaho 44Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-5
97.2%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (Avery Young) to the Idaho 49Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
97.2%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
97.2%
Kevin Phillips punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.6%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
96.6%
Elijhaa Penny run for 4 yds to the Idaho 24Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+2
96.7%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 2 yds to the Idaho 26Similar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
96.7%
Austin Rehkow punt for 39 yds, downed at the Aub 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:1796% → 97%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
96.4%
Jovon Robinson run for 24 yds to the Idaho 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
96.5%
Jovon Robinson run for 3 yds to the Idaho 38 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive holding (Avery Young) to the Idaho 48Similar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 17
OPP 48
+18
96.5%
Ricardo Louis run for 3 yds to the Idaho 45 for a 1ST down IDAHO Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Idaho 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
96.5%
Jason Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Idaho 35Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+13
96.2%
Jovon Robinson run for 13 yds to the Idaho 22Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+9
96.3%
Jovon Robinson run for 9 yds to the Idaho 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
96.7%
Jovon Robinson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 6FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 4:534% → 5%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.5%
Matt Linehan run for 5 yds to the Idaho 30Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
96.5%
Aaron Duckworth run for 3 yds to the Idaho 33Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
96.5%
Matt Linehan run for 9 yds to the Idaho 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
96.4%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete, broken up by Stephen RobertsSimilar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+19
96.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Buck Cowan for 19 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
96.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Buck Cowan for 6 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+3
96.3%
Isaiah Saunders run for 3 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+6
96.4%
Isaiah Saunders run for 6 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+23
96.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 23 yds to the Aub 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.3%
Isaiah Saunders run for no gain to the Aub 1Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
96.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Quinton Bradley for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 2Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-6
96.4%
Aaron Duckworth run for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 8 IDAHO Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
95.2%
Austin Rehkow 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:1295% → 96%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.2%
Peyton Barber run for 5 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
95.3%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Marcus Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
95.1%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 12 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
95.4%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+1
95.4%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
94.7%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Melvin Ray AUBURN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+24
94.5%
Kevin Phillips run for 24 yds to the Idaho 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
95.0%
Ricardo Louis run for 3 yds to the Idaho 30Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+4
95.0%
Jovon Robinson run for 4 yds to the Idaho 26Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+12
94.9%
Jovon Robinson run for 12 yds to the Idaho 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
95.0%
Jovon Robinson run for 6 yds to the Idaho 8Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+2
95.0%
Jovon Robinson run for 2 yds to the Idaho 6Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+5
94.9%
Jovon Robinson run for 5 yds to the Idaho 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.9%
Jeremy Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
95.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Aub Tre' WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4096% → 98%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
95.9%
Jovon Robinson run for 3 yds to the Idaho 20Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+10
95.9%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Marcus Davis for 10 yds to the Idaho 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-4
95.9%
Jovon Robinson rush up the middle for 4 yards to the IDAHO7 (Ed Hall), PENALTY AU illegal formation 4 yards to the IDAHO15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 14
OPP 15
0
95.9%
Jovon Robinson run for no gain to the Idaho 15Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 14
OPP 15
+15
97.6%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 10INT TD
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:053% → 3%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.8%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Buck CowanSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.9%
Aaron Duckworth run for 1 yd to the Idaho 26Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+48
97.0%
Matt Linehan pass intercepted for a TD Johnathan Ford return for 48 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 11TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:223% → 4%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.0%
Matt Linehan run for 2 yds to the Idaho 27Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
96.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 6 yds to the Idaho 33Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
96.8%
Isaiah Saunders run for 1 yd to the Idaho 34Similar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
96.8%
Matt Linehan run for 2 yds to the Idaho 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
96.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Buck Cowan for 17 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
96.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Buck Cowan for 17 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
96.4%
Jake Luton run for 2 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+9
96.4%
Aaron Duckworth run for 9 yds to the Aub 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
95.9%
Kareem Coles pass incomplete to Buck Cowan, broken up by Blake CountessSimilar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+9
96.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jante Boston for 9 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+9
95.4%
Aaron Duckworth run for 9 yds to the Aub 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.9%
Matt Linehan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.4%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
97.3%
Jeremy Johnson run for no gain to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
97.3%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Ricardo Louis, broken up by Dorian ClarkSimilar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
97.1%
Kevin Phillips punt for 35 yds, downed at the Idaho 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
96.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 9 yds to the Idaho 47Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
96.2%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Buck CowanSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-10
96.3%
A Duckworth rush up the middle for 12 yards to the AU41 (Blake Countess), PENALTY IDAHO holding (Mason Woods) 10 yards to the IDAHO37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
96.8%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Callen Hightower, broken up by Jonathan JonesSimilar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
96.8%
Austin Rehkow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
97.3%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.7%
Aaron Duckworth run for 4 yds to the Idaho 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
96.6%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete, broken up by Carlton DavisSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
96.7%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Aaron Duckworth for 3 yds to the Idaho 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
96.7%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Buck Cowan, broken up by Blake CountessSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:4298% → 99%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
97.5%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the Idaho 27Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+4
97.5%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the Idaho 23Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+3
97.4%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the Idaho 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
97.5%
Peyton Barber run for 15 yds to the Idaho 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.2%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Tony Stevens for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 17INT
13 plays · 68 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Rueben MwehlaSimilar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Callen HightowerSimilar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Buck Cowan for 7 yds to the Idaho 32Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+4
98.9%
Matt Linehan run for 4 yds to the Idaho 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.8%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
98.9%
Aaron Duckworth run for 3 yds to the Idaho 39Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+10
98.9%
Matt Linehan run for 10 yds to the Idaho 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
98.8%
Aaron Duckworth run for 9 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+16
98.8%
Jake Luton run for 16 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
98.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Buck Cowan for 11 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
98.7%
Jake Luton run for 8 yds to the Aub 7Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+29
98.7%
Jake Luton pass intercepted Jonathan Jones return for 29 yds to the Aub 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 1:1099% → 100%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
99.3%
AUBURN Penalty, illegal block (Jeff Holland) to the Aub 19Similar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+56
99.2%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 56 yds to the Idaho 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.3%
Jeremy Johnson run for no gain to the Idaho 25Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+15
99.3%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Jason Smith for 15 yds to the Idaho 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
99.3%
Jeremy Johnson left endzone pass incomplete to Melvin Ray, PENALTY IDAHO pass interference (Chris Edwards) 8 yards to the IDAHO2, 1ST DOWN AU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.3%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Melvin RaySimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Jeremy Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 19FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:021% → 0%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
99.4%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Deon Watson, broken up by Carlton DavisSimilar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
99.4%
Isaiah Saunders run for 2 yds to the Idaho 19Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+26
99.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Buck Cowan for 26 yds to the Idaho 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Buck Cowan for 4 yds to the Idaho 49Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+6
99.3%
I Saunders rush up the middle for loss of 2 yards to the IDAHO47 (Kris Frost), PENALTY AU offside (Jeff Holland) 6 yards to the AU45, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
99.3%
Callen Hightower run for 10 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
99.2%
Aaron Duckworth run for 4 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
99.2%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Deon WatsonSimilar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+4
99.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Aaron Duckworth for 4 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 2:24
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+45
99.8%
Austin Rehkow 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Kevin Phillips punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Rueben Mwehla at the Idaho 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
99.9%
Jake Luton sacked by JaViere Mitchell for a loss of 4 yards to the Idaho 30Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+12
99.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Deon Watson for 12 yds to the Idaho 42Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+8
99.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Deon Watson for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-5
99.9%
Matt Linehan left flat pass complete to Jante Boston for 20 yards to the AU30 (Nick Ruffin), PENALTY IDAHO illegal formation 5 yards to the IDAHO45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Kareem ColesSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 4 yds to the Idaho 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 49
-7
99.9%
Matt Linehan sacked by Gimel President for a loss of 7 yards to the Idaho 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Austin Rehkow punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22TD
2 plays · 77 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
99.9%
Roc Thomas run for 21 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
99.9%
Roc Thomas run for 56 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 23TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 2:190% → 0%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
99.9%
Jake Luton run for 12 yds to the Idaho 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
99.9%
Jake Luton run for 4 yds to the Idaho 35 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, personal foul (Deshaun Davis) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Deon Watson, broken up by Michael SherwoodSimilar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 10
50
+5
99.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Buck Cowan for 5 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+37
99.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Callen Hightower for 37 yds to the Aub 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
99.9%
Aaron Duckworth run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 9 Aaron Duckworth fumbled, forced by Tray Matthews, recovered by IdahoSimilar
Q4 10:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Deon WatsonSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Callen Hightower for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · -22 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
99.9%
Roc Thomas run for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 15
OWN 41
-8
99.9%
Ryan Davis run for a loss of 8 yards to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 23
OWN 33
+6
99.9%
Roc Thomas run for 6 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 17
OWN 39
-15
99.9%
AUBURN Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 32
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Kevin Phillips punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Rueben Mwehla at the Idaho 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 25TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:370% → 1%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
99.9%
Jake Luton run for 1 yd to the Idaho 30Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+15
99.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Deon Watson for 15 yds to the Idaho 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
99.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Buck Cowan for 6 yds to the AUBURN 49 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, personal foul (Tre' Williams) to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
99.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Deon Watson for 15 yds to the Aub 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.9%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+15
99.9%
Jake Luton left endzone pass incomplete to Deon Watson (M. Sherwood), PENALTY AU pass interference (M. Sherwood) 15 yards to the AU4, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
Jake Luton left endzone pass incomplete to Deon Watson (M. Sherwood), PENALTY AU pass interference (M. Sherwood) 2 yards to the AU2, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Jake Luton run for 1 yd to the Aub 1Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Jake Luton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 3:34100% → 100%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.7%
Tucker Tuberville run for 9 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
99.7%
Lawyer Tillman run for 1 yd to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.7%
Tucker Tuberville run for 5 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+8
99.7%
Lawyer Tillman run for 8 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
99.7%
Lawyer Tillman run for 5 yds to the Idaho 47Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-20
99.7%
N/A run for a loss of 20 yards to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 25
OWN 33
+5
99.6%
Lawyer Tillman run for 5 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 20
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Kevin Phillips punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Idaho 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
99.6%
Jake Luton sacked by Andrew Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the Idaho 38Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 17
OWN 38
+7
99.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Rueben Mwehla for 7 yds to the Idaho 45Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
99.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Saunders for no gain to the Idaho 45Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Kareem Coles for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.8%
Lawyer Tillman run for 5 yds to the Idaho 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:58
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q3 12:02
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Tony Stevens for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+1.7
FG · Q2 14:56
Austin Rehkow 25 yd FG GOOD
-1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com