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MSST

Mississippi State 51 at Arkansas 50

ARK
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:41 · Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter Henry
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+19.0+9.50−9.5−19.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Home team on offense+14.3Pregame prior+3.3Score differential+2.8Garbage-time factor+6.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:39: Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 39 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +17.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:54: Dak Prescott run for 3 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +19.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 6:58: Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 10 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves PAT MISSED) — MSST win probability +26.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:33: Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 10 yds for a TD, (Jared Cornelius pass to Brandon Allen for Two-Point Conversion) — ARK win probability +31.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:05: Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 14 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +41.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 7:31ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:47MSST 4th & 3 at ARK 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.1%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−4.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:47ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:35ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:03MSST 4th & 6 at ARK 49, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.5%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:56MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 36, down 11
    Close callPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:41ARK 4th & 1 at MSST 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    80.6%−1.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−6.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:54ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−3.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:11MSST 4th & 1 at ARK 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    30.8%−3.9
    86% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−16.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:39ARK 4th & 3 at MSST 12, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−31.4
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    18.2%−51.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MSST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 10:16ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:31MSST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:37MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:13ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:35MSST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:44MSST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:52ARK Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:00ARK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 11:39ARK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 6:56ARK Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 12:54MSST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:58MSST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−2.0
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 5:33ARK Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    74.9%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.4%
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 3:05MSST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.8%−2.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4460% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
59.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 5 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
59.7%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
59.7%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
59.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 7 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
59.7%
Kody Walker run for no gain to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
59.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete, broken up by Chris JonesSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+19
59.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 19 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
59.7%
Jared Cornelius run for 9 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+6
59.7%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
62.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 20 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:4539% → 41%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
61.3%
Brandon Holloway run for 12 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
61.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 6 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
61.0%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
61.0%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
61.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 11 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
60.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 3 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
60.9%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+38
58.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 38 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
59.6%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
59.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter Henry, broken up by Kivon ComanSimilar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
59.2%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew Morgan, broken up by Taveze CalhounSimilar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
59.0%
Toby Baker punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:4841% → 46%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
59.3%
Brandon Holloway run for 1 yd to the MisSt 36Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+44
59.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 44 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
58.3%
Brandon Holloway run for 6 yds to the Ark 14Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+4
58.3%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
58.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 1 yd to the Ark 9Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
58.3%
Brandon Holloway run for 5 yds to the Ark 4Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
54.0%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:2456% → 62%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
56.1%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
56.5%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jared Cornelius, broken up by Ryan BrownSimilar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+13
56.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 13 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
56.7%
Dominique Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+19
56.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 19 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
57.2%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+14
57.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Alex Collins for 14 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
55.9%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
61.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 5 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 2:2641% → 45%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
58.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
58.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
50
+4
57.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 4 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
57.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 1 yd to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+35
56.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 26 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, personal foul (Santos Ramirez) to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
55.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 7 yds to the Ark 3Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
55.6%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the Ark 3Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
56.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred Ross, broken up by Kevin RichardsonSimilar
Q2 11:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
55.5%
Westin Graves 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0057% → 55%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
56.6%
Kody Walker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 29 Kody Walker fumbled, recovered by Ark Brandon AllenSimilar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
56.2%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
55.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q2 11:47
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+5
55.0%
Toby Baker punt 29 yards to the MS42, downed, PENALTY MS roughing the kicker (Donald Gray) 5 yards to the AR34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:47
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+7
55.4%
Toby Baker punt for 51 yds , Fred Ross returns for 7 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:4644% → 56%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
55.9%
Brandon Holloway run for 5 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
55.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred Ross, broken up by Kevin RichardsonSimilar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+12
56.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 12 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
54.6%
Brandon Holloway run for 12 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
54.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 24 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
53.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+11
53.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 11 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
53.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the Ark 8Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
43.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 8 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
44.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 6 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-1
45.2%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
44.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter Henry, broken up by A.J. JeffersonSimilar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
43.9%
Toby Baker punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:2756% → 70%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
44.4%
Brandon Holloway run for 5 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+9
43.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 9 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
43.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 5 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+55
29.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 55 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 3:5234% → 41%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
34.4%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-4
35.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Alex Collins for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+17
34.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 17 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
36.3%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+18
36.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 18 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
37.5%
Brandon Allen run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+12
33.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 12 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
33.3%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
33.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 9 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+9
41.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 9 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:4961% → 63%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
39.1%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
39.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 12 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
38.0%
Dak Prescott sacked by Tevin Beanum and Deatrich Wise Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 13
OWN 44
0
38.8%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+7
39.6%
Ashton Shumpert run for 7 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
37.3%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14TD
6 plays · 23 yds · 3:0043% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
42.7%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 25
0
42.5%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+20
40.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 20 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
42.7%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the MisSt 4Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
42.7%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the MisSt 3Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
54.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
50.1%
Dak Prescott pass intercepted Kevin Richardson return for no gain to the MisSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
1 play · 39 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
67.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 39 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17FUMBLE
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0036% → 40%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
64.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for 9 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
61.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for 6 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
63.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 8 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
61.1%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
61.2%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
61.5%
Dak Prescott run for 11 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
60.3%
Dak Prescott sacked by Deatrich Wise Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 40 Dak Prescott fumbled, recovered by Ark Taiwan Johnson , return for 0 yards , return for 15 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 2:0371% → 82%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
71.0%
Kody Walker run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+19
71.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 19 yds Jeremy Sprinkle fumbled, forced by Tolando Cleveland, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
71.8%
Kody Walker run for no gain to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
71.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy Sprinkle, broken up by Taveze CalhounSimilar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+18
81.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 18 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
79.5%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
80.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+7
80.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 7 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 3
OWN 36
+20
80.4%
Logan Cooke punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the ARKANSAS 29 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Ark 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
83.3%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 4
50
+8
83.3%
Alex Collins run for 8 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
83.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Alex Collins for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+10
82.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Dominique Reed, PENALTY MS pass interference (T.Cleveland) 10 yards to the MS35, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
83.3%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+3
83.2%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+1
82.5%
Kody Walker run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 1
OPP 26
0
81.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:2116% → 40%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
84.1%
Brandon Holloway run for 9 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+3
82.2%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
82.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred Brown, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+27
82.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 27 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
80.1%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+12
80.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 12 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
80.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
80.5%
Dak Prescott run for 9 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+3
81.4%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the Ark 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
80.0%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the Ark 3Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
60.4%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0071% → 68%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
70.9%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
70.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 4 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
69.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jared Cornelius, broken up by A.J. JeffersonSimilar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
68.0%
Toby Baker punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23TD
13 plays · 68 yds · 4:1333% → 66%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
66.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 9 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+6
63.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 6 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
63.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 7 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+8
61.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 8 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
62.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete, broken up by Taiwan JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
62.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 9 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+8
62.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 8 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
60.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds to the Ark 14Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+2
60.3%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 1
OPP 12
0
62.2%
Gabe Myles pass incomplete to Dak Prescott, broken up by Kevin RichardsonSimilar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+2
64.3%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
60.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya Wilson, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q4 6:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
33.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 10 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:2549% → 89%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+52
49.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 52 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
57.5%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
88.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 10 yds for a TD, (Jared Cornelius pass to Brandon Allen for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 2:2821% → 70%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
78.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+12
76.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 12 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+45
76.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 45 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
70.1%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
70.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 5 yds to the Ark 14Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+14
29.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 14 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26MISSED FG
13 plays · 77 yds · 2:2646% → 48%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+17
45.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 17 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
46.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 16 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
51.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 13 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
53.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 6 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+18
53.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 18 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
55.6%
Kody Walker run for 3 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+2
52.8%
Kody Walker run for 2 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+2
50.9%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
47.8%
Cole Hedlund 29 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Beniquez Brown Beniquez Brown return for no gain to the MisSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0378% → 77%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
21.8%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 16Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 13
OWN 16
-2
21.3%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 14Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 15
OWN 14
-3
23.1%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:05
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 14 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
-41.4
TD · Q4 5:33
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 10 yds for a TD, (Jared Cornelius pass to Brandon Allen for Two-Point Conversion)
+31.4
TD · Q4 6:58
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 10 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves PAT MISSED)
-26.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com