2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadCHSO aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreCHSO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:03 · Truett Burns punt for 34 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 72 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:50: Derrick Henry run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:28: Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 21 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
- PUNT · Q1 0:00: Truett Burns punt for 22 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 43 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CHSO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2CHSO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 12:10ALA 4th & 1 at CHSO 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.2%71% to convertField goal98.1%−0.174% to makePunt97.7%−0.5average punt
- Q1 0:00CHSO 4th & 14 at CHSO 21, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q2 4:03CHSO 4th & 7 at CHSO 38, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 6:45ALA 4th & 13 at CHSO 22, up 43Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−0.119% to convertField goal99.9%72% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 11:36ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:50ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:28ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:07ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:53ALA Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:52ALA Touchdown, up 49 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartALADrive 1TD10 plays · 64 yds · 3:0999% → 99%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.2%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 2 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
99.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 8 yds to the ChaSo 39Similar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
99.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 3 yds to the ChaSo 27Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+4
99.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 4 yds to the ChaSo 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD10 plays · 55 yds · 4:2099% → 99%
ALADrive 3TD2 plays · 35 yds · 0:3299% → 99%
CHSODrive 4PUNT RETURN TD5 plays · -4 yds · 2:201% → 1%
Q1 0:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+43
99.5%
Truett Burns punt for 22 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 43 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD5 plays · 86 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+21
99.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 21 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
99.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to Derrick Henry for 28 yds to the ChaSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+30
99.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 30 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 6PUNT RETURN TD7 plays · 13 yds · 2:570% → 0%
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.7%
Austin Brown pass complete to Mike Holloway for 1 yd to the ChaSo 36Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+2
99.7%
Austin Brown pass complete to Mike Holloway for 2 yds to the ChaSo 38Similar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+72
99.7%
Truett Burns punt for 34 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 72 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7FUMBLE TD4 plays · -4 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
Q2 2:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
CHARLESTON SOU Penalty, Substitution Infraction ( Yards) to the ChaSo 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 8DOWNS TD8 plays · 53 yds · 4:020% → 0%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
100.0%
Kelan Fraise run for 22 yds to the Alab 40 Kelan Fraise fumbled, recovered by ChaSoSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+35
100.0%
Kyle Copeland pass complete to Saire Davis for 35 yds to the Alab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Kyle Copeland run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nathan Perera intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD13 plays · 74 yds · 6:18100% → 100%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
99.9%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Dakota Ball for 8 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 3
OPP 24
0
100.0%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Ty Flournoy-Smith for no gain to the ChaSo 24Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+16
100.0%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Cam Sims for 16 yds to the ChaSo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q1 0:00
Truett Burns punt for 22 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 43 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q1 2:28
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 21 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 5:50
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+0.2