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VAN

Vanderbilt 28 at Tennessee 53

TENN
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDSAFETYTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:52 · Tommy Openshaw punt for 48 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 2 yds to the Tenn 42 TENNESSEE Penalty, illegal block (7 Yards) to the Tenn 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior+30.4Home team on offense+2.2Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.2Blowout margin+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:50: Darrius Sims run for 7 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +1.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:01: Joshua Dobbs run for 6 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +1.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:50: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 12 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +2.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:36: VANDERBILT Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line — TENN win probability +5.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:41: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 5 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +1.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:26VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:01TENN 4th & 6 at VAN 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:57TENN 4th & 9 at VAN 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:52VAN 4th & 2 at VAN 40, down 6
    Close callPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:45TENN 4th & 15 at TENN 33, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:36VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:37TENN 4th & 1 at VAN 1, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    95.8%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    92.3%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:33VAN 4th & 16 at VAN 19, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:34VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 25, down 29
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:17TENN 4th & 4 at VAN 14, up 29
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:17VAN 4th & 19 at VAN 26, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:59TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 33, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:32TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:50VAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:01TENN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:50VAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:41TENN Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:06TENN Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:01VAN Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:22VAN Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
89.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
89.2%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
89.2%
Darrius Sims run for 2 yds to the Vandy 38 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
89.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+26
89.2%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 44 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 26 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:4189% → 89%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
88.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 4
50
+12
88.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 12 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
88.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 18 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
88.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
88.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 17 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
88.7%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 16Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-4
88.7%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Derek Barnett for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 12Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+8
88.8%
Ralph Webb run for 8 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+6
88.8%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 50 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 6 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:1589% → 88%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alvin KamaraSimilar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
88.5%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd to the Tenn 37Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+14
88.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 14 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
88.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 12 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+25
88.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 25 yds to the Vandy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
88.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 7 yds to the Vandy 5Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 3
OPP 5
-3
88.7%
Alvin Kamara run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 8Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
88.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
88.1%
Aaron Medley 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:0512% → 14%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+60
87.9%
Ralph Webb run for 50 yds to the TENNESSEE 20 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (LaDarrell McNeil) to the Tenn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
87.3%
Dallas Rivers run for 3 yds to the Tenn 7Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
85.9%
Darrius Sims run for 7 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 2:4087% → 89%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
86.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+18
86.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 18 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
87.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
87.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+22
86.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for 22 yds to the Vandy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
87.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-2
87.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ralph David Abernathy IV for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 21Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+15
86.8%
Dobbs, J. pass incomplete to Malone, J. (29), PENALTY VU pass interference (McGaster, T.) 15 yards to the VU6, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
88.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 6 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:0512% → 16%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
88.1%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
87.9%
Dallas Rivers run for 8 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
87.9%
Trey Ellis run for 19 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+36
87.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 36 yds to the Tenn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
86.9%
Darrius Sims run for 10 yds to the Tenn 2 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding (Trent Sherfield) to the Tenn 12Similar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
84.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 12 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:4786% → 87%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
85.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+9
85.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 9 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
85.9%
Alvin Kamara run for 17 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
86.2%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd to the Vandy 29Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
86.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Von PearsonSimilar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
85.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+47
86.7%
Aaron Medley 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
86.5%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
86.3%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
86.3%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+2
85.7%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
85.8%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 40Similar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+2
86.4%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 48 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 2 yds to the Tenn 42 TENNESSEE Penalty, illegal block (7 Yards) to the Tenn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
86.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+2
86.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+12
85.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 12 yds to the Tenn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
86.4%
Alvin Kamara run for 9 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+5
86.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 5 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
86.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd to the Tenn 39Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-1
86.8%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 38Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
86.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Von PearsonSimilar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 10
OWN 38
-5
85.8%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 15
OWN 33
+4
85.7%
Trevor Daniel punt for 42 yds , Ryan White returns for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3115% → 10%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
85.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Steven Scheu, broken up by Danny O'BrienSimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
85.7%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 29Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+5
86.1%
TENNESSEE Penalty, offside defense (Derek Barnett) to the Vandy 34Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
85.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Dallas Rivers, broken up by Darrin Kirkland Jr.Similar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 5
OWN 34
+85
90.3%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 51 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 85 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
95.8%
VANDERBILT Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13INT
17 plays · 78 yds · 3:595% → 5%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
95.1%
Ralph Webb run for 8 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+3
95.0%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
95.1%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (Jake Bernstein) to the Vandy 17Similar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+8
95.2%
Ralph Webb run for 8 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+12
95.1%
Ralph Webb run for 12 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
94.9%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 15
OWN 32
0
95.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+3
95.2%
Josh Crawford run for 3 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+25
95.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 25 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
94.7%
Kyle Shurmur run for 15 yds to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
94.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 14 yds to the Tenn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
94.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
94.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
95.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Todd Kelly Jr. return for no gain to the Tenn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15DOWNS
13 plays · 70 yds · 1:1997% → 97%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
96.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 3 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
96.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for no gain to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+7
96.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for 7 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
97.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 17 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
97.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+17
97.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 17 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
97.3%
Joshua Dobbs run for 13 yds to the Vandy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
97.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Vandy 5Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
97.3%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Vandy 1Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.3%
Joshua Dobbs run for no gain to the Vandy 1Similar
Q3 13:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
97.0%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 1 Jalen Hurd fumbled, forced by Stephen Weatherly, recovered by Tenn Jalen HurdSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16SF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:513% → 3%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
96.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Steven ScheuSimilar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
96.8%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 5Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 6
OWN 5
-5
97.0%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Derek Barnett for a loss of 5 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17TD
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:0798% → 98%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
97.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
97.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
97.6%
Alvin Kamara run for 11 yds to the Vandy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
97.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Von PearsonSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
97.6%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+11
97.5%
Dobbs, J. pass incomplete to Smith, J., PENALTY VU pass interference (Ferguson, T.) 11 yards to the VU14, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
97.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 14 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.2%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-13
97.2%
Webb, R. rush for 2 yards to the VU29 (Reeves-Maybin), PENALTY VU personal foul (Bernstein, J.) 13 yards to the VU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 21
OWN 14
-5
97.3%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by LaTroy Lewis for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 9Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 26
OWN 9
+10
97.4%
Dallas Rivers run for 10 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+4
97.3%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 47 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 4 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:2598% → 100%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
98.0%
VANDERBILT Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+48
98.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 48 yds to the Vandy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
98.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Vandy 8Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
98.1%
Alvin Kamara run for 3 yds to the Vandy 5Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 5 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
99.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Steven Scheu for 9 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 1
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Dallas Rivers run for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:45100% → 100%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
99.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 13 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 6 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+16
99.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 16 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Vandy 30Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+1
99.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Vandy 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+9
99.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 9 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
99.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 7 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 13
-1
99.8%
Alvin Kamara run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
99.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
99.9%
Aaron Medley 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
99.9%
Kyle Shurmur run for 2 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
99.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 4 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.9%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-12
99.9%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Jalen Reeves-Maybin for a loss of 12 yards to the Vandy 26Similar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 19
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:59100% → 100%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
99.9%
Alvin Kamara run for 9 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+17
99.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Ralph David Abernathy IV for 17 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Ralph David Abernathy IVSimilar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.9%
Alvin Kamara run for 2 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+35
99.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 35 yds to the Vandy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Joe Young run for 8 yds for a TD, (George Bullock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 3:540% → 0%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ralph Webb, broken up by Kahlil McKenzieSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+20
100.0%
Ralph Webb run for 20 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
100.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 10 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
100.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
100.0%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Tenn 35Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+15
100.0%
Shurmur, K. pass incomplete to Kentera, K., PENALTY UT pass interference (Moseley, E.) 15 yards to the UT20, 1ST DOWN VU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Steven ScheuSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+10
99.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Steven Scheu for 10 yds to the Tenn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
100.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Dallas Rivers for 7 yds to the Tenn 3Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Steven Scheu for 3 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
Joe Young run for 5 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-5
99.9%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 28Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
99.9%
Joe Young run for 1 yd to the Tenn 29Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+4
99.9%
Joe Young run for 4 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+12
100.0%
Nathan Renfro punt for 47 yds , Darrius Sims returns for 12 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 1:230% → 0%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
100.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 13 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
100.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 12 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
100.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trey EllisSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
100.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+35
100.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 35 yds to the Tenn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
100.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
100.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Dallas Rivers for 8 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.9%
Jayson Sparks run for 3 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:36
VANDERBILT Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line
+5.5
TD · Q2 14:50
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 12 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
-2.9
TD · Q1 2:01
Joshua Dobbs run for 6 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com