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MISS

Ole Miss 38 at Mississippi State 27

MSST
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:44 · Gary Wunderlich punt for 37 yds , Fred Ross returns for 15 yds to the Miss 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Home team on offense−30.7Score differential−25.4Garbage-time factor−9.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8Pregame prior−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:05: Tony Bridges 45 Yd Interception Return (Gary Wunderlich Kick) — MISS win probability +6.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:45: Damore'ea Stringfellow 36 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick) — MISS win probability +10.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:54: Dak Prescott 1 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick) — MSST win probability +15.2 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:22: Jordan Wilkins 38 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick) — MISS win probability +4.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:38: Malik Dear 13 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Westin Graves Kick) — MSST win probability +5.7 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:26MSST 4th & 17 at MSST 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:17MSST 4th & 5 at MISS 5, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−3.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:42MSST 4th & 16 at MSST 15, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:04MISS 4th & 6 at MSST 21, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:12MSST 4th & 1 at MISS 35, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−2.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:03MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 36, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:44MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 24, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:05MISS 4th & 11 at MSST 16, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−1.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−6.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:50MSST 4th & 4 at MISS 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    15.5%−1.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:42MSST 4th & 10 at MISS 10, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−1.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−9.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:45MISS 4th & 6 at MSST 31, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.8%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    84.3%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:02MSST 4th & 19 at MSST 17, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−3.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:00MISS 4th & 3 at MSST 49, up 18
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:17MSST 4th & 2 at MISS 7, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.2
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:09MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:10MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:05MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:45MISS Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:54MSST Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:22MISS Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:38MSST Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.9%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:17MSST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1FUMBLE
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:3246% → 47%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
46.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
46.5%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
46.6%
Brandon Holloway run for 5 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
46.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+6
46.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 6 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
47.1%
Malik Dear run for 1 yd to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+10
47.3%
Dak Prescott run for 10 yds to the Miss 38 Dak Prescott fumbled, recovered by Miss Chief BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 0:5653% → 55%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
46.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 18 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
46.7%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+15
46.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 15 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
45.2%
Chad Kelly 27 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3946% → 45%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
45.8%
Dak Prescott sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+5
45.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 5 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-6
45.4%
Dak Prescott sacked by D.J. Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 18Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
45.1%
Logan Cooke punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Collins Moore at the Miss 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:5055% → 60%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-6
45.0%
Chad Kelly run for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 26 Chad Kelly fumbled, recovered by Miss Chad KellySimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+15
45.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 15 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+12
44.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 12 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
44.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 17 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
43.9%
Jaylen Walton run for 17 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
43.8%
Chad Kelly run for 4 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+7
43.7%
Chad Kelly run for 7 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
43.5%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the MisSt 2Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.6%
Damore'ea Stringfellow 2 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5INT TD
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:0041% → 34%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
40.9%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
40.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 13 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
41.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 5 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-5
40.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Justin Malone) to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+45
33.7%
Tony Bridges 45 Yd Interception Return (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:3334% → 34%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
33.6%
Brandon Holloway run for 5 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
33.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 3 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
32.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
32.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+35
32.4%
Dak Prescott run for 35 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
32.3%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 11Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+7
31.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 7 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
31.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Justin Malone) to the Miss 9Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
30.7%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
34.2%
Westin Graves 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2070% → 84%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
30.4%
Chad Kelly run for 12 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
30.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 2 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
29.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 4 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+8
28.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 8 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
27.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
27.7%
Chad Kelly run for 9 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+4
26.6%
Akeem Judd run for 4 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
16.5%
Damore'ea Stringfellow 36 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:4816% → 13%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
15.6%
Prescott, Dak pass complete to Gray, Donald for 13 yards to the MISSSTATE34, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Gray, Donald) 10 yards to the MISSSTATE11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+3
14.5%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 17
OWN 14
-4
13.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 21
OWN 10
+5
12.9%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the MisSt 15 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards) (Darrion Hutcherson) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 16
OWN 15
+49
12.7%
Logan Cooke punt for 49 yds , Collins Moore returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9MISSED FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:2685% → 88%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
14.8%
Akeem Judd run for 21 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
13.6%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+6
12.7%
Chad Kelly run for 6 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+10
11.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for 10 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
11.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
11.7%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon Treadwell, broken up by Chris JonesSimilar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+5
11.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 5 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
11.8%
Gary Wunderlich 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:4611% → 9%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
10.7%
Malik Dear run for 21 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
10.9%
Dak Prescott sacked by Woodrow Hamilton for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+10
9.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 10 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+7
9.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
9.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 4 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
9.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+5
9.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 5 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
9.2%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the Miss 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5792% → 93%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
8.2%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the Miss 35Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
7.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 1 yd to the Miss 36Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
7.1%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
7.0%
Will Gleeson punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:526% → 4%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
6.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Justin Malone) to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+7
4.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+1
5.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 1 yd to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 12
OWN 44
-7
4.0%
Dak Prescott sacked by Channing Ward for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0193% → 93%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
7.0%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 22Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
6.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+2
7.0%
Chad Kelly run for 2 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+15
6.8%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 37 yds , Fred Ross returns for 15 yds to the Miss 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 1:366% → 20%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
5.5%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+6
5.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
5.3%
Prescott, Dak pass incomplete to Brown, Fred, PENALTY OLEMISS offside (Nkemdiche, Robert) 5 yards to the OLEMISS29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 5
OPP 29
+24
5.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 24 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
5.3%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the Miss 2Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
5.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (1 Yards) to the Miss 1Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.3%
Dak Prescott 1 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15MISSED FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 3:4484% → 86%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.0%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
15.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 17 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
14.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 19 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
14.2%
Jaylen Walton run for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+6
13.4%
Jaylen Walton run for 6 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
13.2%
Jaylen Walton run for 5 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+6
12.9%
Chad Kelly run for 6 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
12.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
12.8%
Jaylen Walton run for 1 yd to the MisSt 14Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 9
OPP 14
-2
13.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 16Similar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+33
13.6%
Gary Wunderlich 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 2:1816% → 20%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
15.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 24 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
16.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 18 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
17.0%
Brandon Holloway run for 6 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
17.4%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
16.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q3 6:50
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+4
16.2%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
17.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 2 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+16
16.9%
Dak Prescott run for 16 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
16.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 5:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
16.8%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
15.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q3 5:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
19.9%
Westin Graves 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:4584% → 92%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
15.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 18 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
14.6%
Akeem Judd run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+26
14.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 26 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
12.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-1
12.3%
Chad Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
12.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
8.0%
Gary Wunderlich 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:1811% → 10%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
11.2%
Dak Prescott sacked by Robert Nkemdiche for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 16
OWN 20
+8
10.7%
Dak Prescott run for 8 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 8
OWN 28
-11
10.2%
Dak Prescott sacked by Robert Nkemdiche and C.J. Johnson for a loss of 11 yards to the MisSt 17Similar
Q3 1:02
4TH & 19
OWN 17
+1
9.9%
Logan Cooke punt for 49 yds , Collins Moore returns for 1 yd to the Miss 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:2394% → 99%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
6.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
6.3%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon Treadwell, broken up by Cedric JilesSimilar
Q3 0:12
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+12
6.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 12 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
5.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for 7 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
5.3%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+8
5.6%
Chad Kelly run for 8 yds to the MisSt 38 Chad Kelly fumbled, recovered by Miss Chad Kelly for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
0.8%
Jordan Wilkins 38 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:221% → 6%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
0.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 9 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
0.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 4 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+8
0.7%
Malik Dear run for 8 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
0.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+10
0.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 10 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
0.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 4 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+13
0.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 13 yds to the Miss 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
6.4%
Malik Dear 13 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:0097% → 98%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
3.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 9 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+3
3.2%
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
3.1%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+17
2.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 2 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (J.T. Gray) to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
2.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 5 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-2
2.1%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+4
2.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 4 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
1.8%
Will Gleeson punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:423% → 6%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
2.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 5
OWN 41
-2
2.5%
Dak Prescott sacked by Breeland Speaks for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
2.4%
Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+8
2.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 8 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
2.4%
Dak Prescott run for 8 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-5
2.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Elgton Jenkins) to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+3
2.3%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+28
2.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 28 yds to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
2.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Donald Gray, broken up by Tony BridgesSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
2.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+8
2.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 8 yds to the Miss 7Similar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+7
5.6%
Malik Dear 7 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 41 yds · 0:5997% → 97%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
3.4%
Jaylen Walton run for 10 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+33
3.2%
Jaylen Walton run for 33 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
3.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:54
Dak Prescott 1 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)
+15.2
TD · Q2 10:45
Damore'ea Stringfellow 36 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick)
-10.1
TD · Q1 3:05
Tony Bridges 45 Yd Interception Return (Gary Wunderlich Kick)
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com