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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreTA&M score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:50 · Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q3 14:23: Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the TexAM 24 — LSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:13: Derrius Guice run for 50 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK) — LSU win probability +16.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 3:02: Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-Jones — TA&M win probability +7.3 pts (now 32%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 10:55: LSU Penalty, False Start (Maea Teuhema) to the LSU 15 — LSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:50: Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — LSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TA&M made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 14:27TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snapGo for it37.8%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.9%average punt
- Q1 10:58LSU 4th & 5 at TA&M 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snapGo for it62.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call62.2%83% to makePunt61.6%−0.6average punt
- Q1 9:11LSU 4th & 11 at TA&M 21, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.4% before the snapGo for it62.1%−0.325% to convertField goalTheir call62.4%74% to makePunt61.2%−1.2average punt
- Q1 6:49TA&M 4th & 15 at TA&M 13, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snapGo for it35.2%−0.616% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.8%average punt
- Q1 6:21LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 37, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snapGo for it63.6%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.9%average punt
- Q2 11:46LSU 4th & 5 at TA&M 8, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.7% before the snapGo for it60.4%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call60.5%90% to makePunt57.2%−3.3average punt
- Q2 8:06TA&M 4th & 18 at TA&M 22, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snapGo for it38.8%−2.712% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.5%average punt
- Q2 6:43LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 28, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snapGo for it56.3%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.8%average punt
- Q2 0:44LSU 4th & 8 at TA&M 33, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.9% before the snapGo for it57.7%−0.534% to convertField goalTheir call58.2%49% to makePunt56.2%−2.0average punt
- Q2 0:00TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 42, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt45.0%−1.7average punt
- Q3 12:19LSU 4th & 14 at TA&M 29, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.6% before the snapGo for it52.1%−2.318% to convertField goalTheir call54.4%58% to makePunt47.6%−6.8average punt
- Q3 8:34TA&M 4th & 10 at LSU 36, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snapGo for it45.2%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call45.3%42% to makePunt44.7%−0.6average punt
- Q3 4:32TA&M 4th & 13 at TA&M 27, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snapGo for it25.5%−3.819% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.3%average punt
- Q3 0:15TA&M 4th & 13 at midfield, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snapGo for it26.4%−2.221% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.6%average punt
- Q4 13:28LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 28, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snapGo for it75.8%−1.636% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.4%average punt
- Q4 10:55TA&M 4th & 11 at TA&M 38, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snapGo for it21.1%−1.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.2%average punt
- Q4 0:59LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 14, up 12Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.4%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:37TA&M 4th & 10 at LSU 30, down 12Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.6%−0.429% to convertField goal4.0%56% to makePunt2.9%−1.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 3:26TA&M Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.0%97% to makeGo for two38.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:13LSU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.8%97% to makeGo for two69.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 2:50LSU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick95.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call95.8%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTA&MDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2337% → 37%
Q1 14:27
4TH & 10
OWN 16
+7
63.0%
Drew Kaser punt for 50 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 7 yds to the LSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2FUMBLE10 plays · 44 yds · 3:2463% → 63%
LSUDrive 3FG5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3464% → 64%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4PUNT7 plays · -5 yds · 1:5636% → 35%
LSUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1965% → 65%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6TD9 plays · 80 yds · 2:4935% → 40%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
64.7%
LSU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Frank Herron) to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+47
64.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 47 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+13
63.6%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 13 yds to the LSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
60.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 8 yds for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7MISSED FG14 plays · 70 yds · 6:1061% → 61%
TA&MDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 2 yds · 3:1641% → 41%
Q2 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
59.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Speedy Noil for 6 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
58.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 29Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-9
59.3%
Kyle Allen sacked by Lewis Neal and Deion Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the TexAM 22Similar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 18
OWN 22
+20
59.4%
Drew Kaser punt for 64 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 20 yds to the LSU 42 LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (Duke Riley) to the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0259% → 57%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10FUMBLE7 plays · 52 yds · 3:2344% → 46%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+31
56.4%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 31 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+6
53.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 6 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 4
OPP 7
-6
53.6%
Kyle Allen sacked by Kendell Beckwith for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 13 Kyle Allen fumbled, forced by Kendell Beckwith, recovered by LSU Davon Godchaux , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11MISSED FG14 plays · 54 yds · 2:1658% → 58%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
57.8%
Brandon Harris run for 1 yd to the LSU 25 Brandon Harris fumbled, recovered by LSU Brandon HarrisSimilar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 4
OWN 30
+15
56.1%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Daeshon Hall) to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+3
57.7%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 3 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+22
56.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to DeSean Smith for 22 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12DOWNS5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2047% → 46%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13MISSED FG6 plays · -4 yds · 2:0462% → 55%
Q3 12:50
3RD & 11
OPP 26
-3
59.6%
Brandon Harris sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14MISSED FG9 plays · 35 yds · 3:3845% → 46%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15TD3 plays · 63 yds · 0:5757% → 75%
Q3 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+11
58.7%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 2:2330% → 28%
LSUDrive 17INT3 plays · 8 yds · 1:0574% → 75%
Q3 3:10
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
75.4%
Brandon Harris pass intercepted Justin Evans return for no gain to the TexAM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 2:4732% → 28%
Q3 2:20
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+12
69.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 12 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 8
OPP 45
-5
67.1%
Kyle Allen sacked by Lewis Neal and Arden Key for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 13
50
+25
72.2%
Drew Kaser punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 10 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Brandon Williams) to the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4078% → 76%
Q4 14:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.6%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 2:0529% → 24%
LSUDrive 21TD17 plays · 80 yds · 8:0583% → 97%
Q4 5:30
3RD & 6
OPP 29
-5
88.7%
LSU Penalty, Substitution Infraction (Bry'Kiethon Mouton) to the TexAM 34Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+17
88.4%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 17 yds to the TexAM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+7
90.6%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Daylon Mack) to the TexAM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22INT10 plays · 38 yds · 0:595% → 6%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
95.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Speedy Noil for 6 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 4
OWN 30
-6
94.4%
Kyle Allen sacked by Arden Key for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 24Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+15
95.4%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Arden Key) to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
94.6%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 8 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+11
94.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 11 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
94.3%
Kyle Allen pass intercepted Donte Jackson return for no gain to the LSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:2297% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24DOWNS4 plays · 0 yds · 0:153% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:13
Derrius Guice run for 50 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)
+16.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:23
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the TexAM 24
+7.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 10:55
LSU Penalty, False Start (Maea Teuhema) to the LSU 15
+7.5