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LOU

Louisville 38 at Kentucky 24

UK
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:40 · Austin MacGinnis 51 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Home team on offense+8.0Score differential+4.0Pregame prior−6.2Garbage-time factor+2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:42: Kyle Bolin pass intercepted for a TD Josh Forrest return for 81 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +7.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:40: Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +15.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:02: Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 35 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +28.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:17: Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +24.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:02: Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +14.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 9 of 10LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 2:02LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00UK 4th & 15 at midfield, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:21LOU 4th & 12 at LOU 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−2.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:40UK 4th & 19 at LOU 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−2.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00UK 4th & 3 at LOU 3, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%−1.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−8.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:59LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 11, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:09UK 4th & 9 at UK 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:45LOU 4th & 5 at UK 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−9.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:39UK 4th & 21 at UK 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−5.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:40UK 4th & 12 at UK 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−3.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00UK 4th & 8 at UK 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:54LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−3.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:59UK 4th & 15 at UK 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−5.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:35UK 4th & 8 at UK 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:52LOU 4th & 9 at UK 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    82.8%−0.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:45UK 4th & 16 at UK 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−2.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:15UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:30UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:42UK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:21LOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:40LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:02LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:17LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:02LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:4541% → 46%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.0%
Drew Barker run for no gain to the Kent 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
41.0%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+31
41.0%
Drew Barker pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 31 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
41.0%
Stanley Williams run for 13 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
41.0%
Jojo Kemp run for 3 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
41.0%
Drew Barker run for no gain to the Lvile 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+28
41.0%
Drew Barker pass complete to Mikel Horton for 28 yds to the Lvile 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
41.0%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 3Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
41.0%
Drew Barker run for 2 yds to the Lvile 1Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.6%
Drew Barker run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
45.1%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Ja'Quay SavageSimilar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+16
45.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 16 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+35
45.0%
Kyle Bolin pass intercepted A.J. Stamps return for 35 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:4946% → 51%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
46.4%
Stanley Williams run for 7 yds to the Lvile 6Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
50.5%
Stanley Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4INT TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:4151% → 44%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
49.1%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 7 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+1
48.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 1 yd to the Lvile 39Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+38
48.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Charles Standberry for 38 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
48.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Kent 22Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+81
55.9%
Kyle Bolin pass intercepted for a TD Josh Forrest return for 81 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:2143% → 48%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+38
57.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 38 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
55.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 3 yds to the Kent 16Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+16
52.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 16 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 43 yds · 0:0055% → 56%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.6%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 26Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
54.6%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+42
54.2%
Drew Barker pass complete to Dorian Baker for 42 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
55.5%
Mikel Horton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 28 Mikel Horton fumbled, forced by Pio Vatuvei, recovered by Lvile James Burgess , return for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
54.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
54.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
54.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:02
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
54.5%
Joshua Appleby punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:1057% → 58%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
57.0%
Drew Barker run for 7 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+11
57.2%
Stanley Williams run for 11 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
58.0%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Lvile 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-1
59.3%
Drew Barker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-5
58.6%
Drew Barker sacked by Devonte Fields for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 15
50
0
57.6%
Landon Foster punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
58.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-2
59.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 6Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 12
OWN 6
0
59.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 12
OWN 6
0
59.5%
Joshua Appleby punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10MISSED FG
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:3963% → 62%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
62.5%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson, broken up by Chucky WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
62.5%
Mikel Horton run for 3 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-12
62.0%
Drew Barker sacked by Devonte Fields for a loss of 12 yards to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 19
OPP 34
+51
62.2%
Austin MacGinnis 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11INT
9 plays · 53 yds · 0:0040% → 42%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
60.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+4
60.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 4 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+15
60.0%
[SHOT], Bonnafon, R. pass incomplete to Jackson, L., PENALTY UK pass interference (Denzil Ware) 15 yards to the UK44, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
59.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+13
59.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
58.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Keith TowbridgeSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+11
58.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 11 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
58.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Kent 13Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+25
58.4%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted J.D. Harmon return for 25 yds to the Kent 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12FG
18 plays · 69 yds · 6:4766% → 75%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
66.1%
Mikel Horton run for 1 yd to the Kent 29Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+10
66.0%
Drew Barker pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 10 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
67.0%
Mikel Horton run for 1 yd to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
66.9%
Mikel Horton run for 5 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+6
66.4%
Jojo Kemp run for 6 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
67.6%
[SHOT], Drew Barker pass incomplete to C.J. Conrad, PENALTY LOU pass interference (Harvey-Clemons) 6 yards to the LOU43, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
67.7%
Mikel Horton run for 3 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+2
67.6%
Mikel Horton run for 2 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-10
66.7%
[SHOT], Drew Barker rush for 4 yards to the LOU34, out-of-bounds (Harvey-Clemons), PENALTY UK holding (Nick Haynes) 10 yards to the LOU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 15
OPP 48
+18
66.0%
Drew Barker pass complete to Mikel Horton for 18 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
67.7%
Mikel Horton run for 21 yds to the Lvile 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
67.7%
Jojo Kemp run for 5 yds to the Lvile 4Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
75.3%
Jojo Kemp run for 1 yd to the Lvile 3Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
73.2%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
75.4%
Miles Butler 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
78.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+6
78.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 11Similar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 4
OWN 11
0
78.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete, broken up by Jason HatcherSimilar
Q3 14:59
4TH & 4
OWN 11
0
78.4%
Joshua Appleby punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
79.7%
Mikel Horton run for 1 yd to the Kent 45Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
79.6%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
78.7%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q3 14:09
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
77.5%
Landon Foster punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 5:2320% → 21%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
80.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 20Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+8
81.6%
James Quick run for 8 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+18
80.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 18 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
80.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 15 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
79.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 4 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
77.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+10
79.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 10 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
77.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+1
77.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Kent 19Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 4
OPP 19
-5
79.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 24Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+4
82.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
79.3%
John Wallace 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
83.1%
Drew Barker run for 9 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+2
83.2%
Mikel Horton run for 2 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
83.2%
Drew Barker pass incomplete, broken up by James BurgessSimilar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 20
OWN 22
-1
82.8%
Drew Barker pass complete to Dorian Baker for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 21Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 21
OWN 21
0
82.1%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Dorian Baker KENTUCKY Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 21
OWN 21
+44
81.6%
Landon Foster punt for 44 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:0117% → 36%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
83.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+11
83.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 11 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
82.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 14 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
81.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 6 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+29
79.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 29 yds to the Kent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
64.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0073% → 70%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.4%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
73.0%
Mikel Horton run for 8 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-10
73.3%
[SHOT], Mikel Horton rush for 3 yards to the UK36 (Brown, D.), PENALTY UK holding (Jordan Swindle) 10 yards to the UK23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
71.6%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Jojo KempSimilar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
70.4%
Landon Foster punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:1928% → 58%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
72.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole HikutiniSimilar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
72.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 9 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+24
70.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 24 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
42.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 35 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0054% → 50%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
53.6%
Mikel Horton run for 4 yds to the Kent 29 Mikel Horton fumbled, forced by Chucky Williams,Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
53.6%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
51.3%
Drew Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
50.0%
Landon Foster punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 48%
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
47.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-5
45.3%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 36 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Lvile Lamar JacksonSimilar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
50.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Ja'Quay Savage, broken up by Derrick BaitySimilar
Q4 13:54
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
51.7%
Joshua Appleby punt for 50 yds, downed at the Kent 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0054% → 50%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
53.7%
Mikel Horton run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 10Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 15
OWN 10
0
53.5%
Drew Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 15
OWN 10
0
51.4%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q4 11:59
4TH & 15
OWN 10
+24
50.3%
Landon Foster punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Kent 49 KENTUCKY Penalty, kick catching interference (J.D. Harmon) to the Kent 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:4158% → 83%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+21
42.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 21 yds to the Kent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
41.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the Kent 4Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
17.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3424% → 22%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
24.2%
Drew Barker run for 2 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
24.1%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
22.7%
Drew Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+18
21.6%
Landon Foster punt for 46 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 18 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:2382% → 84%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
17.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 46Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+5
18.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-5
17.5%
[SHOT], PENALTY LOU false start (Hughley, T.) 5 yards to the LOU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+15
18.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
16.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
17.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James Quick, broken up by Derrick BaitySimilar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+4
17.4%
L.J. Scott run for 4 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 4
OPP 33
-5
20.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Kent 38Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
16.2%
Joshua Appleby punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0020% → 17%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
19.8%
Drew Barker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 9Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 12
OWN 9
0
19.4%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 12
OWN 9
-4
18.3%
Drew Barker sacked by Sheldon Rankins and Devonte Fields for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 5Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 16
OWN 5
+33
17.3%
Landon Foster punt for 41 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 33 yds to the Kent 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27TD
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
2.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 28INT
8 plays · 51 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
3.1%
[SHOT], Patrick Towles pass incomplete, PENALTY UK personal foul 0 yards to the UK25, NO PLAY, PENALTY LOU personal foul 0 yards to the UK25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
3.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 8 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-10
3.4%
[SHOT], Patrick Towles rush for 8 yards to the UK41, out-of-bounds (Thomas, S.), PENALTY UK holding (Cole Mosier) 10 yards to the UK23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
3.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 10 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+53
3.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 53 yds to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
4.3%
[SHOT], Patrick Towles pass incomplete, PENALTY UK holding (G. Asafo-Adjei) 10 yards to the LOU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+2
4.1%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted Jermaine Reve return for 2 yds to the Lvile 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 29END OF GAME
7 plays · 49 yds · 0:4999% → 99%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
1.4%
L.J. Scott run for 4 yds to the Lvile 8Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+5
1.5%
L.J. Scott run for 5 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+43
1.3%
Jermaine Reve run for 43 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
1.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 45Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-2
1.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:02
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 35 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
-28.1
TD · Q4 10:17
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
-24
TD · Q3 2:40
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
-15.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com