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ALA

Alabama 29 at Auburn 13

AUB
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:19 · Kevin Phillips punt for 38 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 3 yds to the Alab 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior−24.3Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:24: Adam Griffith 50 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +3.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:14: ArDarius Stewart 34 Yd pass from Jake Coker (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +11.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:27: Jason Smith 77 Yd pass from Jeremy Johnson (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +10.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:04: Adam Griffith 47 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +2.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:26: Derrick Henry run for 25 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +2.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 10ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 14:27AUB 4th & 13 at AUB 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:28ALA 4th & 5 at AUB 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:35AUB 4th & 3 at ALA 7, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.3%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:12ALA 4th & 15 at ALA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:49AUB 4th & 12 at ALA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:47ALA 4th & 5 at AUB 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:19AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:58ALA 4th & 9 at AUB 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−4.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:09AUB 4th & 1 at ALA 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    29.9%−2.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−2.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:24AUB 4th & 2 at ALA 31, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.3%−0.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:24ALA 4th & 7 at AUB 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:05ALA 4th & 4 at AUB 47, up 6
    Close callPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:01AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 48, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−2.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:00ALA 4th & 7 at AUB 48, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:43AUB 4th & 19 at AUB 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−5.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:04ALA 4th & 5 at AUB 29, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.1%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−8.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:49AUB 4th & 19 at AUB 36, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−3.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:46ALA 4th & 1 at AUB 31, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%−1.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−3.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:13AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 34, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:26ALA 4th & 1 at AUB 25, up 9
    Close callWent for it · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.1%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ALA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q3 5:14ALA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:27AUB Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:26ALA Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:2817% → 18%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.4%
Jason Smith run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
17.6%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q1 14:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
17.6%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Melvin RaySimilar
Q1 14:35
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-5
17.6%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Blake Countess) to the Aub 22Similar
Q1 14:27
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
17.6%
Kevin Phillips punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:4782% → 81%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
17.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 5 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+7
17.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 7 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
17.9%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Aub 44Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+30
18.2%
Derrick Henry run for 30 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
18.2%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
18.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for no gain to the Aub 9Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
18.8%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Aub 9Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
18.9%
Adam Griffith 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 3:4419% → 21%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
19.0%
Jovon Robinson run for 9 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
19.3%
Jovon Robinson run for 13 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+28
19.6%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Peyton Barber for 28 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
19.9%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+8
20.1%
Ricardo Louis run for 8 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
20.3%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+3
20.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Alab 9Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+2
20.6%
Jovon Robinson run for 2 yds to the Alab 7Similar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 3
OPP 7
-5
20.6%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (Daniel Carlson) to the Alab 12Similar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+5
20.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Alab 7Similar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+24
21.2%
Daniel Carlson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:1279% → 77%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
21.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Damien Harris for 4 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
21.1%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-15
21.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (ArDarius Stewart) to the Alab 15Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+5
22.1%
Jake Coker run for 5 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+21
22.7%
JK Scott punt for 50 yds , Marcus Davis returns for 21 yds to the Alab 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:1523% → 25%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
23.2%
Jason Smith run for 1 yd to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+8
23.6%
Peyton Barber run for 8 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-5
23.5%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Prince Tega Wanogho) to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+20
23.7%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Jovon Robinson for 20 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
24.4%
Jovon Robinson run for 1 yd to the Alab 24Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-6
24.7%
Ricardo Louis run for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+3
24.2%
Ricardo Louis run for 3 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+44
24.7%
Daniel Carlson 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6FG
15 plays · 67 yds · 4:4375% → 74%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
25.4%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+5
25.6%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
26.0%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
26.3%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 9 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+5
26.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 5 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
25.9%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+12
25.5%
Derrick Henry run for 12 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
25.6%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 2
OPP 38
0
25.6%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+10
25.8%
Derrick Henry run for 10 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
25.6%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
25.8%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
26.7%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 11:47
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
25.7%
Adam Griffith 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:1128% → 28%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
27.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
27.8%
Jeremy Johnson run for no gain to the Aub 26Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
27.4%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Melvin Ray for 8 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
28.2%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (Kevin Phillips) to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 9:19
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+3
27.7%
Kevin Phillips punt for 38 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 3 yds to the Alab 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:1173% → 74%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
26.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 13 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+46
26.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 46 yds to the Aub 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
24.6%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Aub 1Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-8
24.7%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 8 yards to the Aub 9Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
26.3%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q2 6:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
25.7%
Adam Griffith 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9MISSED FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 5:2626% → 30%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.0%
Jovon Robinson run for 5 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
26.7%
Jovon Robinson run for 6 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
27.3%
Jeremy Johnson run for 6 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
28.9%
Jovon Robinson run for 3 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+6
28.6%
Jovon Robinson run for 6 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
29.8%
Jovon Robinson run for 1 yd to the Alab 48Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
30.1%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Melvin RaySimilar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+8
29.3%
Jeremy Johnson run for 8 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+1
29.0%
Jovon Robinson run for 1 yd to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
30.4%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
31.8%
Jovon Robinson run for 4 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 2
OPP 31
0
30.8%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+48
29.6%
Daniel Carlson 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10FG
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:4673% → 78%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
26.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 17 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
25.5%
Derrick Henry run for 15 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
24.9%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
23.9%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
25.3%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+50
22.3%
Adam Griffith 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11END OF HALF
10 plays · 6 yds · 0:2424% → 25%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
24.1%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Chandler Cox) to the Aub 20Similar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
23.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
23.9%
Jovon Robinson run for 2 yds to the Aub 25 Jovon Robinson fumbled, forced by Geno Matias-Smith, recovered by AubSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.4%
Peyton Barber run for 5 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+15
22.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Ronnie Harrison) to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-14
25.4%
Jeremy Johnson sacked by TEAM for a loss of 14 yards to the Aub 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:4077% → 77%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
23.2%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+12
22.7%
Derrick Henry run for 12 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
22.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 6 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
21.7%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Aub 47Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
22.2%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
23.1%
JK Scott punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:5526% → 28%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
25.8%
Peyton Barber run for 5 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+14
26.3%
Ricardo Louis run for 14 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
27.0%
Peyton Barber run for no gain to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
27.0%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Marcus Davis for 4 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+5
27.6%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Jason Smith for 5 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 10:01
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
28.0%
Kevin Phillips punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 4:3675% → 89%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
25.3%
Derrick Henry run for 9 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+6
23.0%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
23.6%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+14
24.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 14 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
22.2%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-1
22.2%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 46Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+7
23.0%
Jake Coker run for 7 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q3 6:20
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+5
23.7%
Henry, Derrick rush for 2 yards to the AUBURN45, PENALTY AUBURN 12 men on the field 5 yards to the AUBURN40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
22.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 6 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+34
10.8%
ArDarius Stewart 34 Yd pass from Jake Coker (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3215% → 26%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
15.2%
Jovon Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 23Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
15.0%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Tony StevensSimilar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+77
25.6%
Jason Smith 77 Yd pass from Jeremy Johnson (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 4:0876% → 77%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
24.1%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 26Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
24.2%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
23.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 5 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
23.1%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+5
22.2%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
21.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Dominick Jackson) to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 15
OWN 44
0
22.4%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+1
23.1%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 0:33
3RD & 14
OWN 45
+7
23.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 7 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
23.2%
JK Scott punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:1128% → 26%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
28.4%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 24 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
31.7%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Jason SmithSimilar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
30.2%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-9
28.8%
Jeremy Johnson sacked by Maurice Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 19
OWN 35
0
26.3%
Kevin Phillips punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:3076% → 84%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
23.7%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+6
23.3%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+7
22.6%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
21.9%
Jake Coker run for 1 yd to the Aub 36 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (Johnathan Ford) to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
19.8%
AUBURN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
19.1%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
19.2%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+2
18.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 2 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
15.8%
Adam Griffith 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:0816% → 13%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
15.7%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+18
15.0%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Roc Thomas for 3 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Reuben Foster) to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
16.7%
Jovon Robinson run for no gain to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
16.2%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Peyton BarberSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-9
14.8%
Jeremy Johnson sacked by Tim Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 7:49
4TH & 19
OWN 36
0
12.7%
Kevin Phillips punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20DOWNS
14 plays · 51 yds · 4:5787% → 93%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
13.1%
Derrick Henry run for 16 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
12.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Dominick Jackson) to the Alab 29Similar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+4
12.3%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+6
11.4%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+7
10.7%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
9.4%
Derrick Henry run for 9 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+5
9.4%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
9.4%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+1
7.8%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
6.9%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 1
OPP 31
0
6.6%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Aub 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:276% → 5%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
5.5%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Peyton Barber for 3 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
5.5%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Melvin RaySimilar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
5.3%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Melvin RaySimilar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
5.0%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Melvin RaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:4395% → 99%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
5.3%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
4.1%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 5
OPP 29
-5
4.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (Jake Coker) to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+9
4.3%
Derrick Henry run for 9 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+25
0.8%
Derrick Henry run for 25 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:041% → 1%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
0.9%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
0.9%
Jeremy Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:14
ArDarius Stewart 34 Yd pass from Jake Coker (Adam Griffith Kick)
-11.3
TD · Q3 4:27
Jason Smith 77 Yd pass from Jeremy Johnson (Daniel Carlson Kick)
+10.5
FG · Q2 0:24
Adam Griffith 50 yd FG GOOD
-3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com