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MIZ

Missouri 3 at Arkansas 28

ARK
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2015 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:23 · Toby Baker punt for 44 yds, downed at the Misso 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Pregame prior+16.0Home team on offense+19.3Score differential+9.1Garbage-time factor+8.7Blowout margin−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:02: Alex Collins run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +2.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:07: Alex Collins run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +4.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:39: Alex Collins run for 25 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +5.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 10:23: Kody Walker run for 9 yds to the Ark 24 — ARK win probability +3.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:15: Kody Walker run for 9 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:02ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:02MIZ 4th & 13 at MIZ 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:21ARK 4th & 13 at ARK 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:15MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:09MIZ 4th & 8 at ARK 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    10.8%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:09ARK 4th & 1 at MIZ 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    82.4%−1.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    83.0%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 33, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:05MIZ 4th & 3 at ARK 47, down 18
    Close callPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:23ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 45, up 18
    Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:42MIZ 4th & 15 at MIZ 6, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:04MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 25, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 28, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:50MIZ 4th & 1 at ARK 31, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:50MIZ 4th & 15 at ARK 23, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:46MIZ 4th & 11 at MIZ 38, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:06ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 14, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:35MIZ 4th & 10 at ARK 33, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 0:02ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:07ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:39ARK Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:15ARK Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
84.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Misso 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
84.3%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
84.3%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 18
0
84.3%
Corey Fatony punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
84.0%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
84.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter Henry, broken up by Kentrell BrothersSimilar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-2
84.0%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
84.0%
Toby Baker punt for 47 yds, downed at the Misso 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:0316% → 17%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
83.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Misso 11Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+9
83.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 9 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+8
83.8%
Tyler Hunt run for 8 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
83.7%
Tyler Hunt run for 1 yd to the Misso 29Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
83.7%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 9
OWN 29
-4
83.2%
Drew Lock sacked by Deatrich Wise Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 25 Drew Lock fumbled, recovered by Misso Drew Lock , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
83.3%
Corey Fatony punt for 37 yds, downed at the Ark 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
83.2%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-1
83.4%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-9
83.3%
Brandon Allen sacked by Rickey Hatley for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 10:21
4TH & 13
OWN 36
-5
82.9%
Toby Baker punt for 47 yds , Aarion Penton returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 12 Aarion Penton fumbled, recovered by Misso Aarion PentonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
82.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 5 yds to the Misso 17Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+3
82.3%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
82.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Kentrell Brothers, broken up by Brooks EllisSimilar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
82.6%
Corey Fatony punt for 33 yds, downed at the Ark 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
12 plays · 53 yds · 7:0683% → 84%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
82.5%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-2
82.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Alex Collins for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+15
82.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 15 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
82.6%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+8
82.6%
Kody Walker run for 8 yds to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
82.7%
Kody Walker run for 3 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+5
82.7%
Kody Walker run for 5 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+6
81.1%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Misso 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
81.4%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Misso 14Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+10
81.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 10 yds to the Misso 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
83.8%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.9%
Drew Lock run for 1 yd to the Misso 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
83.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Cam Hilton for 8 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
82.6%
Tyler Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
83.0%
Corey Fatony punt for 51 yds, downed at the Ark 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 5:1983% → 88%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
82.7%
Alex Collins run for 10 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
82.8%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
82.9%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+13
82.9%
Alex Collins run for 13 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
83.5%
Kody Walker run for 22 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
83.7%
Kody Walker run for no gain to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
83.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 5 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+18
83.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 18 yds to the Misso 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
87.6%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9FG
8 plays · 63 yds · 1:5813% → 15%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+35
87.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 35 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
86.2%
Ish Witter run for 9 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+17
86.0%
Ish Witter run for 17 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
85.5%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
85.5%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
86.2%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+35
84.7%
Andrew Baggett 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 5:3085% → 92%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
85.1%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+9
85.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 9 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
85.2%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+1
85.8%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+6
85.3%
Brandon Allen run for 6 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
85.9%
Kody Walker run for 2 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+7
85.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 7 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
85.5%
Brandon Allen run for no gain to the Misso 46Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+6
85.0%
Kody Walker run for 6 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
85.9%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Dominique Reed, broken up by Kenya DennisSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
85.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 15 yds to the Misso 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
91.5%
Alex Collins run for 25 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
91.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
91.0%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+1
91.0%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
90.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Dominique ReedSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
90.3%
Toby Baker punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 21 , Aarion Penton returns for no gain to the Misso 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
91.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 12 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-8
91.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Misso 35 MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive holding (Sean Culkin) to the Misso 25Similar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 18
OWN 25
+6
91.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 6 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+15
91.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 15 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
90.9%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 6
50
0
90.6%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 6
50
+3
90.9%
Tyler Hunt run for 3 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
90.9%
Corey Fatony punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
94.3%
Kody Walker run for 9 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+3
94.4%
Kody Walker run for 3 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
94.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 8 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+3
94.5%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
94.6%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
94.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 6 yds Drew Morgan fumbled, forced by Donavin Newsom, recovered by Ark Drew MorganSimilar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-1
94.5%
Kody Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
94.1%
Toby Baker punt for 44 yds, downed at the Misso 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
94.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-5
94.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 6Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 15
OWN 6
0
94.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 15
OWN 6
+5
94.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 33 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 5 yds to the Misso 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:3396% → 99%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
95.9%
Alex Collins run for 11 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
95.9%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Misso 22Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+5
95.9%
Jared Cornelius run for 5 yds to the Misso 17Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+8
95.8%
Jared Cornelius run for no gain to the Misso 17 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, personal foul (Kenya Dennis) to the Misso 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.2%
Kody Walker run for 9 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:111% → 1%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete, broken up by Taiwan JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Corey Fatony punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5799% → 99%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
99.3%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 13
OWN 25
-1
99.3%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 24Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 14
OWN 24
+4
99.3%
Brandon Allen run for 4 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
99.4%
Toby Baker punt for 37 yds , Aarion Penton returns for no gain to the Misso 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
99.1%
Drew Lock run for 13 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
99.0%
Drew Lock run for 12 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
99.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 9 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 1
OPP 31
0
98.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete, broken up by Henre' ToliverSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
98.9%
Drew Lock run for no gain to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+13
98.9%
Tyler Hunt run for 13 yds to the Ark 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
98.8%
Tyler Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 20Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
98.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon Moore, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 12
OPP 20
-3
98.9%
Drew Lock sacked by Jeremiah Ledbetter and Taiwan Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 15
OPP 23
0
99.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20INT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
99.6%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 21Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 12
OWN 21
0
99.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+17
99.6%
Alex Collins run for 17 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.6%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+11
99.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Damon Mitchell for 11 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.6%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Misso 48Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
99.6%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
99.6%
Brandon Allen pass intercepted Aarion Penton return for no gain to the Misso 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
99.7%
Drew Lock sacked by Deatrich Wise Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 37Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+1
99.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Misso 38Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q4 6:46
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 51 yds, downed at the Ark 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
99.8%
N/A run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 9Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 13
OWN 9
+1
99.8%
Kody Walker run for 1 yd to the Ark 10Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 12
OWN 10
+4
99.8%
Kody Walker run for 4 yds to the Ark 14Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 8
OWN 14
+16
99.8%
Toby Baker punt for 35 yds , Aarion Penton returns for 16 yds to the Ark 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
99.7%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+2
99.7%
Tyler Hunt run for 2 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
99.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 10
OPP 33
0
99.7%
Drew Lock pass intercepted, touchback. Josh Liddell return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.9%
Kody Walker run for 6 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-2
99.9%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:39
Alex Collins run for 25 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q2 8:07
Alex Collins run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)
+4.2
KEY PLAY · Q3 10:23
Kody Walker run for 9 yds to the Ark 24
+3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com