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MSST

Mississippi State 31 at Missouri 13

MIZ
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2015 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:21 · Corey Fatony punt for 46 yds , Fred Ross returns for 17 yds to the MisSt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Home team on offense−1.8Pregame prior−14.7Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 7:05: Andrew Baggett 35 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +2.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 6:03: Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 28 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +7.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:50: Russell Hansbrough run for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK) — MIZ win probability +11.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:20: Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 5 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +11.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:26: Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 8 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +11.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 11MSST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:45MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:45MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:14MSST 4th & 8 at MIZ 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:08MSST 4th & 14 at MIZ 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:51MIZ 4th & 22 at MIZ 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:00MIZ 4th & 13 at MSST 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:49MSST 4th & 3 at MIZ 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%−0.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:21MIZ 4th & 12 at MIZ 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:55MSST 4th & 12 at MSST 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:05MIZ 4th & 3 at MSST 18, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.1%−0.7
    79% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−5.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:23MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 31, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:18MIZ 4th & 12 at MIZ 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:01MSST 4th & 4 at MIZ 19, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.0%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−6.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:59MIZ 4th & 14 at MIZ 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−1.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:14MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 18, down 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%−1.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:27MSST 4th & 17 at MIZ 32, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:44MIZ 4th & 5 at MSST 22, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−4.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:22MSST 4th & 15 at MIZ 46, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:04MIZ 4th & 12 at MSST 12, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:03MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:03MSST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:50MIZ Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:20MSST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:26MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5729% → 30%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
29.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for 6 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
29.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-6
29.7%
Drew Lock sacked by Richie Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 25Similar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
29.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 0:1770% → 71%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
29.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 11 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
29.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 15 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
29.8%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+36
29.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 36 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0030% → 30%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ray Wingo for 1 yd to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
29.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Russell HansbroughSimilar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
29.5%
Drew Lock run for 2 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
29.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 36 yds, downed at the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:0871% → 70%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
29.5%
Dak Prescott run for 9 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+5
29.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
50
+2
29.3%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
29.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
29.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Brandon HollowaySimilar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
29.7%
Logan Cooke punt for 34 yds, downed at the Misso 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:1830% → 30%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
29.9%
Ish Witter run for 6 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+3
30.0%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+17
29.9%
Ish Witter run for 17 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
30.2%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
30.3%
Drew Lock pass intercepted Gerri Green return for no gain to the Misso 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0771% → 70%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
29.3%
Ashton Shumpert run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 46Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
29.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for no gain to the Misso 46Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 11
OPP 46
-3
29.5%
Dak Prescott sacked by Logan Cheadle for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
30.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:0530% → 30%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
30.1%
Drew Lock run for no gain to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
30.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-7
29.8%
Drew Lock sacked by Beniquez Brown and J.T. Gray for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 13Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 17
OWN 13
-5
29.7%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 8Similar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 22
OWN 8
0
29.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:4370% → 71%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
29.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 1 yd to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
29.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Aeris WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+10
30.1%
Dak Prescott run for 10 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
29.4%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 47 Brandon Holloway fumbled, forced by Kentrell Brothers, recovered by Misso Terry Beckner Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:2332% → 33%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
31.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+2
31.6%
Drew Lock run for 2 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+35
31.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 35 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
32.4%
Tyler Hunt run for no gain to the MisSt 8Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
32.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 13Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
31.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q1 2:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
32.6%
Andrew Baggett 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10FUMBLE
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:4167% → 67%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+24
33.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 24 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
32.3%
Ashton Shumpert run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 39Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+7
32.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for 7 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+7
32.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
32.3%
Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+8
32.3%
Dak Prescott run for 8 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
32.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 3 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+2
32.0%
Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+2
32.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 2 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+4
33.4%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the Misso 26 Dak Prescott fumbled, forced by Donavin Newsom, recovered by Misso Thomas WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:0934% → 34%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
34.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for 9 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+3
35.4%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
35.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-8
35.0%
Drew Lock sacked by A.J. Jefferson for a loss of 8 yards to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 18
OWN 30
+6
33.6%
Ish Witter run for 6 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+17
33.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 46 yds , Fred Ross returns for 17 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5466% → 64%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
33.8%
Gabe Myles run for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+4
34.7%
Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
35.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Joe MorrowSimilar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 12
OWN 33
-8
35.9%
TEAM punt blocked by Kentrell Brothers blocked by Kentrell BrothersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2538% → 39%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
38.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 5 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+2
37.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
36.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
38.5%
Andrew Baggett 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:2767% → 74%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
33.1%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the Misso 28Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
33.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+28
26.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 28 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 3:4528% → 42%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
27.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Misso 24Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+16
27.4%
Drew Lock run for 16 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
28.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
28.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jason Reese for 9 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
29.8%
Ish Witter run for 13 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
30.0%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+11
31.0%
Russell Hansbrough run for 11 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
30.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
30.9%
Russell Hansbrough run for 6 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
42.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2063% → 61%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
36.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 3 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
37.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gus WalleySimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
38.7%
Logan Cooke punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ish Witter at the Misso 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:4240% → 39%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
39.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 5 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-10
41.2%
MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive Holding (Evan Boehm) to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 15
OWN 25
-1
39.0%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 24Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 16
OWN 24
+4
39.0%
Russell Hansbrough run for 4 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
38.8%
Corey Fatony punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18END OF HALF
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:1162% → 65%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
38.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 20 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
35.2%
Dak Prescott sacked by Walter Brady for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 43 Dak Prescott fumbled, forced by Walter Brady, recovered by MisSt Justin Malone , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
34.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:3162% → 77%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
37.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 3 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-4
37.8%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+63
39.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 63 yds to the Misso 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
34.4%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Holding (Kenya Dennis) to the Misso 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
34.6%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the Misso 4Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
34.5%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 5Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
23.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 5 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
26.7%
Drew Lock pass intercepted Kivon Coman return for no gain to the Misso 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5577% → 78%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
23.4%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Thomas Richard) to the Misso 32Similar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 5
OPP 32
+3
22.9%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+4
22.8%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the Misso 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
22.8%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
22.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+6
23.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 6 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q3 10:01
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
21.9%
Westin Graves 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4122% → 20%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
21.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 10 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
22.6%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+10
22.6%
Ish Witter run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
50
-6
23.5%
Drew Lock sacked by Chris Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 44Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+2
21.8%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
20.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
19.9%
Corey Fatony punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 3:0479% → 94%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
20.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 5 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+9
20.5%
Brandon Holloway run for 9 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
20.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+25
18.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 25 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
18.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gus WalleySimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
17.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+17
17.8%
Dak Prescott run for 17 yds to the Misso 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
17.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 4 yds to the Misso 8Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
5.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 8 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3610% → 9%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
9.9%
Ray Wingo run for 3 yds to the Misso 12Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 12
-6
9.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 6Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 13
OWN 6
+12
8.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for 12 yds to the Misso 18Similar
Q3 1:14
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
8.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 33 yds, downed at the MisSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25MISSED FG
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:4195% → 95%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
5.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
5.1%
Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+7
4.9%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
4.8%
Aeris Williams run for 15 yds to the Misso 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
4.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for no gain to the Misso 25Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-10
4.4%
Dak Prescott sacked by Charles Harris for a loss of 10 yards to the Misso 35Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 20
OPP 35
+3
4.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 13 yds to the Misso 22 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Darrion Hutcherson) to the Misso 32Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 17
OPP 32
0
4.5%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 17
OPP 32
+49
5.1%
Westin Graves 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 45 yds · 2:166% → 5%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
6.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
5.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Cam HiltonSimilar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+14
5.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 14 yds to the Misso 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
5.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Jason ReeseSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
5.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 11 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
5.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 9 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+9
6.0%
Ish Witter run for 9 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
5.8%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
5.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
5.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Jason ReeseSimilar
Q4 10:44
4TH & 5
OPP 22
-1
5.2%
Drew Lock run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:0896% → 97%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
3.8%
Dak Prescott run for 13 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
3.4%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-1
3.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+8
3.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 8 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
3.0%
Aeris Williams run for 12 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
3.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Aeris Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 44Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 13
OPP 44
0
2.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 13
OPP 44
-2
2.6%
Gabe Myles run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 46Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
2.6%
Logan Cooke punt for 45 yds, downed at the Misso 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 28DOWNS
12 plays · 81 yds · 3:412% → 2%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+72
2.4%
Tyler Hunt run for 72 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
3.1%
Tyler Hunt run for 6 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-2
3.0%
Tyler Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 23Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+12
2.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 12 yds to the MisSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
2.9%
Tyler Hunt run for 1 yd to the MisSt 10Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+2
2.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kivon Coman) to the MisSt -2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & -2
OPP -2
-5
3.6%
MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 7Similar
Q4 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-8
2.8%
Drew Lock sacked by Richie Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 15Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+8
2.5%
Tyler Hunt run for 8 yds to the MisSt 7Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
2.6%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Mitch Hall) to the MisSt 12Similar
Q4 2:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
2.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q4 2:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
0
2.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
1.2%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 10Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+9
1.2%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+6
1.1%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:26
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 8 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
-11.4
TD · Q2 1:50
Russell Hansbrough run for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q3 12:20
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 5 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
-11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com