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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreAUB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:40 · TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:42: Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Marcus Davis for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +2.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:40: Jovon Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +5.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- FG · Q3 12:29: Daniel Carlson 35 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +6.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:23: Jake Hubenak pass complete to Speedy Noil for 2 yds for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK) — TA&M win probability +11.0 pts (now 35%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- FG · Q4 13:39: Daniel Carlson 21 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +9.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 5AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 7
- Q1 11:25TA&M 4th & 12 at AUB 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.9% before the snapGo for it71.8%−0.123% to convertField goalTheir call71.9%51% to makePunt71.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 9:12AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 19, up 11Close callPunted · 43.1% before the snapGo for it43.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.5%−0.9average punt
- Q2 8:20TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 47, down 11Close callPunted · 54.4% before the snapGo for it54.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.2%−0.3average punt
- Q2 5:14AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 29, up 11Close callPunted · 47.7% before the snapGo for it47.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.4%−0.5average punt
- Q2 2:01TA&M 4th & 1 at AUB 23, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.3%71% to convertField goal46.8%−1.570% to makePunt42.5%−5.8average punt
- Q2 0:27AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 27, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snapGo for it52.6%−1.839% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.4%average punt
- Q3 12:29AUB 4th & 3 at TA&M 18, up 11Close callKicked a field goal · 57.9% before the snapGo for it58.3%51% to convertField goalTheir call57.7%−0.679% to makePunt51.0%−7.3average punt
- Q3 7:56AUB 4th & 9 at TA&M 13, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.2% before the snapGo for it71.5%−1.328% to convertField goalTheir call72.8%85% to makePunt63.6%−9.1average punt
- Q4 13:39AUB 4th & 3 at TA&M 3, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snapGo for it72.6%44% to convertField goalTheir call70.6%−1.993% to makePunt60.3%−12.3average punt
- Q4 12:31TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 33, down 13Close callPunted · 21.2% before the snapGo for it21.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.4%−0.6average punt
- Q4 6:33AUB 4th & 1 at TA&M 14, up 13Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snapGo for it92.4%71% to convertField goalTheir call90.3%−2.184% to makePunt84.6%−7.8average punt
- Q4 2:55TA&M 4th & 14 at AUB 21, down 16Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.5%−0.317% to convertField goal3.8%74% to makePunt2.8%−1.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 1AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 6:42AUB Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.2%97% to makeGo for two30.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:40AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.5%97% to makeGo for two40.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:23TA&M Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.2%97% to makeGo for two32.0%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTA&MDrive 1FG11 plays · 29 yds · 3:1976% → 76%
AUBDrive 2TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3324% → 28%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
75.3%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 4 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
75.3%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Jason Smith for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
74.9%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Marcus Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 48Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+6
74.9%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Tony Stevens for 6 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+17
74.7%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Melvin Ray for 17 yds to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
72.2%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Marcus Davis for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3INT11 plays · 37 yds · 3:2773% → 73%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
72.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Christian Kirk for 12 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+8
72.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 8 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
73.4%
Murray, Kyler pass complete to Reynolds, Josh for 16 yards to the AUBURN19, PENALTY TEXASAM ineligible downfield on pass (Ifedi, Germain) 5 yards to the AUBURN40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
72.6%
Kyler Murray pass intercepted, touchback. Carlton Davis return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4TD10 plays · 80 yds · 4:1029% → 37%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
68.9%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Marcus Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 25Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+5
68.8%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 5 yds to the TexAM 20Similar
Q1 0:11
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+13
68.6%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Melvin Ray for 13 yds to the TexAM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5INT11 plays · 66 yds · 3:0963% → 63%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the TexAM 30Similar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+6
63.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 6 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
63.6%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Christian Kirk for 4 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
62.9%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 6 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+33
62.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 20 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (Nick Ruffin) to the Aub 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+10
62.8%
Kyler Murray pass intercepted Justin Garrett return for 10 yds to the Aub 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1340% → 40%
Q2 9:12
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
60.0%
Kevin Phillips punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4760% → 58%
Q2 8:20
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
57.5%
Drew Kaser punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:5142% → 45%
Q2 5:14
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
55.4%
Kevin Phillips punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9DOWNS10 plays · 39 yds · 3:0456% → 52%
Q2 4:10
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+13
54.5%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Speedy Noil for 13 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2851% → 54%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11END OF HALF5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2049% → 49%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-13
49.3%
Kyler Murray sacked by Montravius Adams for a loss of 13 yards to the TexAM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12FG8 plays · 57 yds · 2:1653% → 64%
Q3 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+34
44.8%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 34 yds to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13INT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:2737% → 36%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
36.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Christian Kirk for 7 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+20
36.3%
Kyler Murray pass intercepted Blake Countess return for 5 yds to the Aub 33 AUBURN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Aub 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14FG11 plays · 41 yds · 3:3968% → 76%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-15
30.8%
Smith, Jason rush for 11 yards to the TEXASAM31, PENALTY AUBURN illegal block (Cox, Chandler) 15 yards to the AUBURN43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
26.4%
Ricardo Louis run for 1 yd to the TexAM 13 Ricardo Louis fumbled, forced by Shaan Washington, recovered by AubSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15TD15 plays · 83 yds · 5:1726% → 35%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
25.4%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Christian Kirk for 8 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+9
25.9%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 9 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
25.6%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Christian Kirk for 3 yds to the Aub 12Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.6%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Speedy Noil for 2 yds for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16FG11 plays · 72 yds · 3:3669% → 84%
TA&MDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0421% → 20%
AUBDrive 18FG10 plays · 60 yds · 5:5286% → 95%
Q4 9:04
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+32
8.7%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Tony Stevens for 32 yds to the TexAM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19DOWNS16 plays · 54 yds · 3:326% → 4%
Q4 6:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
5.8%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 7 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
5.4%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Speedy Noil for 2 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+15
5.4%
Hubenak, Jake pass sacked for loss of 10 yards to the TEXASAM29 (McKinzy, Cassanova), PENALTY AUBURN face mask (Lawson, Carl) 15 yards to the AUBURN46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+14
4.3%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 14 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+15
4.2%
Hubenak, Jake pass incomplete to Kirk, Christian, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Roberts, Stephen) 15 yards to the AUBURN17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
4.6%
Hubenak, Jake rush for 5 yards to the AUBURN12, PENALTY TEXASAM holding (Ifedi, Germain) 10 yards to the AUBURN27, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20END OF GAME8 plays · 13 yds · 1:5897% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:23
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Speedy Noil for 2 yds for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK)
+11
FG · Q4 13:39
Daniel Carlson 21 yd FG GOOD
-9.2
FG · Q3 12:29
Daniel Carlson 35 yd FG GOOD
-6.9