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ARK

Arkansas 53 at Ole Miss 52

MISS
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:36 · Toby Baker punt for 35 yds , Collins Moore returns for no gain to the Miss 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorTime remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 42Pregame prior+18.6Home team on offense−1.3Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Garbage-time factor+0.1Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 12:20: Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 10 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +25.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:30: Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 17 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +26.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:55: Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 18 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +26.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:53: Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 17 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +42.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 9 yds for a TD, (B. Allen Run For Two-point Conversion) — ARK win probability +70.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:28ARK 4th & 20 at MISS 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:58MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:36ARK 4th & 4 at MISS 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    27.5%−0.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:51MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:26ARK 4th & 1 at MISS 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%−1.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:43ARK 4th & 9 at MISS 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−4.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:26MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 38, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:29ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 0:09MISS 4th & 6 at ARK 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.3%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 4:46ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:32MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:28ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:05MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:09MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:13ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:38MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:14ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:20ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:30MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:55MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−1.6
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:53ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−2.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 5:2625% → 26%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
75.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 10 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
75.0%
Kody Walker run for 7 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
74.8%
Kody Walker run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
50
+1
74.6%
Brandon Allen run for 1 yd to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+11
74.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 11 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
74.2%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-2
74.0%
Kody Walker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 39Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 11
OPP 39
-9
74.0%
Brandon Allen sacked by Channing Ward for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 20
OPP 48
+1
74.2%
Toby Baker punt for 38 yds , Collins Moore returns for 1 yd to the Miss 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:2274% → 73%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
74.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 7 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+4
73.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 4 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
73.7%
Chad Kelly run for 8 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 2
OWN 30
0
74.0%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 2
OWN 30
-5
73.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Aaron Morris) to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
73.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
73.2%
Will Gleeson punt for 48 yds, downed at the Ark 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 3:0727% → 32%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
73.5%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+23
73.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 23 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
72.5%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+9
72.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 9 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
71.8%
Kody Walker run for 2 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+31
68.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 31 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 3:0069% → 74%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
69.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 17 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
69.9%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
69.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 7 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+6
69.5%
Jaylen Walton run for 6 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
69.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 4 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-5
69.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Laquon Treadwell) to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+3
68.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 3 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+19
68.5%
Chad Kelly run for 19 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+21
69.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 21 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
73.7%
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:5129% → 30%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
71.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 24 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
69.8%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
69.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 2 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
69.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Dominique Reed ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Jeremy Sprinkle) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
70.0%
Toby Baker punt for 35 yds , Collins Moore returns for no gain to the Miss 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3971% → 70%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
71.3%
Akeem Judd run for 4 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
71.2%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 6
OWN 14
0
70.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 6
OWN 14
0
70.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 5:1731% → 43%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
69.2%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Kody WalkerSimilar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
69.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 4 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+8
69.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 8 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
68.1%
Kody Walker run for 8 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+1
67.6%
Kody Walker run for 1 yd to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
67.2%
Brandon Allen run for no gain to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+2
68.2%
Brandon Allen run for 2 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+21
66.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 21 yds to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
65.8%
Drew Morgan run for no gain to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
56.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 15 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 2:1060% → 73%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
59.5%
Jaylen Walton run for 7 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+4
60.4%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
59.5%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+12
59.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 12 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+27
60.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 27 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
62.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Cody Core, broken up by Santos RamirezSimilar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
62.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 7 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+10
60.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 10 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
73.1%
Chad Kelly run for 11 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:1333% → 40%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
67.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 26 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
64.4%
Alex Collins run for 10 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
64.0%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+7
64.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 7 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+6
63.4%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
61.2%
Kody Walker run for 1 yd to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
61.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
62.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Kody WalkerSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
60.0%
Cole Hedlund 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10END OF HALF
9 plays · 55 yds · 0:3863% → 71%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for 6 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
64.3%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
62.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
61.9%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Gaines, Rohan) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
50
+30
63.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 30 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+37
71.4%
Gary Wunderlich 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:3569% → 80%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
69.4%
Jaylen Walton run for 1 yd to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
68.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+22
67.6%
Chad Kelly run for 22 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
70.5%
Jaylen Walton run for 1 yd to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+13
70.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 13 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
79.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 23 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 3:4323% → 42%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
76.9%
Kody Walker run for 8 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+3
76.0%
Kody Walker run for 3 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
76.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 16 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
75.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Kody Walker for 4 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
74.5%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+18
74.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 18 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
57.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 30 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3066% → 83%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.6%
Jaylen Walton run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+22
66.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 22 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
69.1%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
68.8%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+42
68.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 42 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.0%
Chad Kelly run for 3 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 5:0623% → 47%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
77.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 12 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
76.8%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+8
76.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 8 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
75.7%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+18
74.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 18 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
74.6%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
72.5%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+6
74.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 6 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
72.5%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Dominique ReedSimilar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+23
73.0%
Alex Collins run for 23 yds to the Miss 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
53.1%
Kody Walker run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:3363% → 63%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
63.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 13 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
63.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 7 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
65.8%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 1
OWN 38
0
65.0%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+7
62.7%
Will Gleeson punt for 41 yds , D.J. Dean returns for 7 yds to the Ark 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:5742% → 74%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
58.1%
Kody Walker run for 4 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+22
57.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 22 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
53.6%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
53.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+32
53.6%
Brandon Allen run for 22 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Miss 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
50.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Damon Mitchell for 1 yd to the Miss 10Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
25.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 10 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 1:4034% → 68%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
33.7%
Chad Kelly run for 4 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+12
33.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 12 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+37
34.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 37 yds to the OLEMISS 30 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
41.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 12 yds to the Ark 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
40.8%
Jaylen Walton run for 1 yd to the Ark 17Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
67.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 17 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:5544% → 44%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.2%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Dominique ReedSimilar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
56.4%
Kody Walker run for 6 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
56.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 4 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
54.4%
Kody Walker run for 2 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
53.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Alex Collins for 4 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
52.1%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q4 7:29
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+2
56.4%
Toby Baker punt for 42 yds , Collins Moore returns for 2 yds to the Miss 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 2:2761% → 93%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
60.8%
Chad Kelly run for 11 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
61.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for 14 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
65.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 11 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
66.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+24
66.3%
Chad Kelly run for 24 yds to the Ark 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
93.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 18 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5411% → 58%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.6%
Alex Collins run for 9 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+20
86.8%
Alex Collins run for 20 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
86.4%
Alex Collins run for 12 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
84.8%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
84.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+19
88.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 19 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
83.7%
Kody Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 17Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+17
41.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 17 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:3160% → 55%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
59.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 17 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
63.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 4 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-7
62.8%
Chad Kelly sacked by Deatrich Wise Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+7
53.6%
Chad Kelly run for 7 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
55.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy Adeboyejo, broken up by D.J. DeanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:0359% → 62%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
41.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 21 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+47
38.1%
Cole Hedlund 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Tony BridgesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
64.7%
Jaylen Walton run for 14 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
64.7%
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds to the Ark 8Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
82.1%
Chad Kelly run for 8 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24TD
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 91%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jared Cornelius, broken up by Kendarius WebsterSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
82.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Miss 30Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 30
-10
84.4%
Brandon Allen sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 10 yards to the Miss 40 Brandon Allen fumbled, forced by Marquis Haynes, recovered by Ark Brandon Allen , return for 0 yardsSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 25
OPP 40
0
88.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 25
OPP 40
+3
90.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 14 yds to the Miss 26, fumble by Hunter Henry recovered by Alex Collins at the Miss 42 for 31 yds to the Miss 11 for a 1ST down, fumble by Alex Collins recovered by Dominique ReedSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
80.4%
Kody Walker run for 2 yds to the Miss 9Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
10.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 9 yds for a TD, (B. Allen Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 0
OPP 3
+2
8.6%
Allen, Brandon pass attempt failed, PENALTY OLEMISS face mask (Haynes, Marquis) 2 yards to the OLEMISS1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 9 yds for a TD, (B. Allen Run For Two-point Conversion)
-70.4
TD · Q4 0:53
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 17 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)
-42
TD · Q4 4:55
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 18 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+26.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com