Try the model
LSU

LSU 16 at Alabama 30

ALA
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-4.3ALA 57.1%Trent Domingue 39 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 10 · Q2 2:22
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:22 · Trent Domingue 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Home team on offense−3.0Pregame prior+7.9Score differential−2.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:51: Derrick Henry run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +4.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:12: Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 40 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK) — LSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 13:00: Derrick Henry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +8.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:47: Derrick Henry run for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +8.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:18: Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trent Domingue PAT BLOCKED) — LSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 7%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8LSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:38ALA 4th & 1 at LSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:52LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:02ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:27LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:05ALA 4th & 1 at LSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.9%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:08ALA 4th & 4 at LSU 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:06LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:48ALA 4th & 16 at ALA 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−2.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:22LSU 4th & 9 at ALA 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−4.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:14ALA 4th & 11 at LSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.9%
    40% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:15LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−2.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:11ALA 4th & 21 at ALA 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−3.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:33LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:11LSU 4th & 16 at LSU 2, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−3.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:45ALA 4th & 4 at LSU 12, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−3.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:47LSU 4th & 8 at ALA 47, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:51ALA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:12LSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:00ALA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:47ALA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:18LSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:1265% → 65%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
64.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 11 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
64.7%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+5
64.8%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
50
+10
64.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 10 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
64.9%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+3
64.9%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
64.9%
Kenyan Drake run for 4 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 1
OPP 31
0
64.8%
Jake Coker run for no gain to the LSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3836% → 35%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
64.4%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
64.3%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-4
64.4%
Brandon Harris sacked by Tim Williams and Reggie Ragland for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 12
OWN 30
+12
64.7%
Jamie Keehn punt for 56 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 12 yds to the Alab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:4365% → 64%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
64.5%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 25Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+1
64.3%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 1 yd to the Alab 26Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+5
63.9%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Deion Jones) to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+6
64.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 6 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
64.3%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Alab 37Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
64.2%
Jake Coker run for 2 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
63.9%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+50
63.5%
JK Scott punt for 50 yds , Donte Jackson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 4:2836% → 37%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
63.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 11Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 11
-5
63.8%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 6Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 14
OWN 6
-3
64.2%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (Brandon Harris) to the LSU 3Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 17
OWN 3
-1
64.1%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (Brandon Harris) to the LSU 2Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 18
OWN 2
+37
64.1%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 37 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
62.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
61.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
61.8%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Leonard FournetteSimilar
Q1 1:27
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
62.6%
Jamie Keehn punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5FG
16 plays · 87 yds · 5:0964% → 65%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
63.5%
Derrick Henry run for 11 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
63.6%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
63.6%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+14
62.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 14 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+33
65.4%
Kenyan Drake run for 18 yds to the ALABAMA 48 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Kendell Beckwith) to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
65.5%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+3
65.5%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+2
64.9%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
64.2%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
65.5%
Kenyan Drake run for no gain to the LSU 22Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
65.5%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+12
64.9%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Corey Thompson) to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
65.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 3 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
65.6%
Jake Coker run for 3 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
64.9%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 11:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
65.0%
Adam Griffith 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5435% → 34%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
64.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 17Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
65.0%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
65.8%
Brandon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
66.4%
Jamie Keehn punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:0966% → 72%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
65.9%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 15 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+40
66.6%
Derrick Henry run for 40 yds to the LSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.1%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2829% → 38%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
71.3%
Brandon Harris run for 8 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Darren Lake) to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
69.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+5
70.0%
Brandon Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+5
69.9%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
70.2%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+40
62.2%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 40 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:1265% → 63%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
65.2%
Kenyan Drake run for 1 yd to the Alab 36Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-10
65.4%
Jake Coker sacked by Jalen Mills for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+3
63.5%
Kenyan Drake run for 3 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 16
OWN 29
+6
62.8%
JK Scott punt for 45 yds , Donte Jackson returns for 6 yds to the LSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:1937% → 43%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
63.5%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 13 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
62.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Cyrus Jones) to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
61.4%
Brandon Harris run for 16 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
60.1%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
60.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the Alab 23Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
61.4%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to DeSean SmithSimilar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+39
57.1%
Trent Domingue 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:0162% → 65%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
62.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 19 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
64.8%
Derrick Henry run for 10 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
64.8%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-9
65.4%
Jake Coker sacked by Arden Key for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 18
OPP 44
+7
61.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 7 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 11
OPP 37
+55
64.9%
Adam Griffith 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
64.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.0%
Brandon Harris pass intercepted Dillon Lee return for 4 yds to the LSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:4670% → 79%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+25
69.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 25 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
69.8%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the LSU 2Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
69.9%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the LSU 1Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.7%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:3523% → 20%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
77.5%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
78.5%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 10 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
77.1%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Tyron JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
77.4%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
79.0%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+11
79.6%
Jamie Keehn punt for 38 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 11 yds to the Alab 45 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (Michael Nysewander) to the Alab 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5679% → 78%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
79.1%
Kenyan Drake run for 16 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
80.4%
Kenyan Drake run for 4 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-12
80.7%
Jake Coker sacked by Christian LaCouture for a loss of 12 yards to the Alab 37Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 18
OWN 37
-3
78.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 21
OWN 34
0
77.8%
JK Scott punt for 40 yds, downed at the LSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3221% → 19%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
79.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+4
79.4%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
80.0%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
80.9%
Jamie Keehn punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 3:3881% → 95%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
81.1%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 25 Derrick Henry fumbled, recovered by Alab Derrick HenrySimilar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+15
80.9%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 15 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
82.5%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
82.6%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+14
81.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 14 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
83.5%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+24
83.6%
Kenyan Drake run for 24 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
83.9%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+7
84.0%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
84.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Cam Robinson) to the LSU 10Similar
Q3 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
85.8%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
94.7%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:247% → 6%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-5
93.0%
Brandon Harris sacked by Dillon Lee for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 3Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 15
OWN 3
-1
93.4%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 2Similar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 16
OWN 2
0
93.7%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q3 1:11
4TH & 16
OWN 2
0
93.8%
Jamie Keehn punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:2095% → 99%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
95.2%
Derrick Henry run for 10 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
95.3%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+10
97.3%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 10 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
97.2%
Kenyan Drake run for 2 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-4
97.5%
Kenyan Drake run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 12
OPP 20
-10
97.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ross Pierschbacher) to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 22
OPP 30
+18
98.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 18 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+30
99.2%
Adam Griffith 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 43 yds · 0:452% → 2%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+41
98.5%
Brandon Harris pass complete to DeSean Smith for 26 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.4%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Leonard FournetteSimilar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
98.4%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Colin JeterSimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+2
98.5%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Jerald Hawkins for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 11:47
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
98.5%
Jamie Keehn punt for 40 yds, downed at the Alab 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22FUMBLE
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:2999% → 99%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+12
99.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 12 yds to the Alab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
99.3%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 22 Derrick Henry fumbled, forced by Tashawn Bower, recovered by LSU Arden KeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:422% → 7%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
98.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 18 yds to the Alab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
98.3%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 6Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
98.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Cyrus Jones) to the Alab 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the Alab 1Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trent Domingue PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24END OF GAME
16 plays · 78 yds · 8:5598% → 99%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
97.6%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 9Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+3
97.7%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 2
OWN 12
+3
97.9%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 3 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
98.0%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+2
98.2%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
98.3%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
98.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ross Pierschbacher) to the Alab 16Similar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+4
98.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 4 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 16
OWN 20
+7
98.7%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+29
98.9%
Derrick Henry run for 29 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
99.0%
Derrick Henry run for 12 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.2%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+5
99.2%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Duke Riley) to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+8
99.3%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:00
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q3 2:47
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+8.7
TD · Q2 6:12
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 40 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)
-7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com