Try the model
UGA

Georgia 31 at Tennessee 38

TENN
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Neyland Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FUMBLEFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-2.6TENN 33.1%Marshall Morgan 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 3 · Q2 4:47
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:47 · Marshall Morgan 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 78Home team on offense−13.8Score differential−6.6Garbage-time factor−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Blowout margin+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:27: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 2 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +12.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  2. TD · Q3 8:31: Joshua Dobbs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +17.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:26: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 2 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +17.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:53: Greyson Lambert pass complete to Reggie Davis for 48 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK) — UGA win probability +28.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:48: Joshua Dobbs run for 5 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +26.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 10UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:12UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:30UGA 4th & 10 at TENN 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    54.0%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:14TENN 4th & 7 at TENN 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:03UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:39TENN 4th & 4 at UGA 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:11TENN 4th & 7 at UGA 45, down 11
    Close callPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    38.4%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:08UGA 4th & 4 at TENN 24, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.0%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:57TENN 4th & 2 at UGA 49, down 11
    Close callPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:47UGA 4th & 8 at TENN 20, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−3.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:27TENN 4th & 18 at TENN 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−2.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:30TENN 4th & 2 at UGA 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.6%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:04TENN 4th & 8 at UGA 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:23TENN 4th & 16 at TENN 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−3.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:55UGA 4th & 7 at UGA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:59UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.7%−2.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:33UGA 4th & 12 at UGA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−3.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:24TENN 4th & 9 at UGA 37, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    53.0%−1.0
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%−1.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:45UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.8
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:40UGA 4th & 9 at UGA 44, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%−1.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:48TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 43, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:53UGA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:27UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:04TENN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:27TENN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:31TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:26TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:53UGA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:48TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UGADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4351% → 51%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
48.9%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 18. Nick Chubb leaves game with apparent leg injury.Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+3
49.0%
Sony Michel run for 3 yds to the Geo 21Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+4
49.2%
Keith Marshall run for 4 yds to the Geo 25Similar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
49.4%
Collin Barber punt for 51 yds, downed at the Tenn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2INT
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:3749% → 50%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
49.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 25Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+13
49.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 13 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
49.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass intercepted Jake Ganus return for no gain to the Tenn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5051% → 50%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
49.1%
Sony Michel run for no gain to the Tenn 46Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
49.1%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Jeb BlazevichSimilar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
49.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Keith MarshallSimilar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
49.6%
Collin Barber punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0850% → 50%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
49.6%
Jauan Jennings run for no gain to the Tenn 20Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
49.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alvin KamaraSimilar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+3
49.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 3 yds to the Tenn 23Similar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
49.5%
Trevor Daniel punt for 56 yds, downed at the Geo 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5950% → 50%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
49.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 2 yds to the Geo 24Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
49.8%
Sony Michel run for 4 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
50.0%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Malcolm MitchellSimilar
Q1 9:03
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
50.4%
Collin Barber punt for 44 yds, downed at the Tenn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6FUMBLE TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:4250% → 49%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
50.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 12 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
50.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 41Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+15
50.5%
Dobbs, Joshua pass incomplete to Jennings, Jauan, PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference (Abram, Johnathan) 15 yards to the GEORGIA44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
51.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Geo 42Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+6
51.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 6 yds to the Geo 36Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+8
51.0%
Joshua Dobbs run for 8 yds to the Geo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+27
51.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 27 yds to the Geo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 0
OPP 1
+96
48.9%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 3 yards Jalen Hurd fumbled, forced by Michael Chigbu, recovered by Geo Leonard Floyd , return for 96 yds, (Marshall Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 4:2047% → 50%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
47.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+8
47.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Preston Williams for 8 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
47.5%
Alvin Kamara run for 4 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
47.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 3
50
+23
47.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 23 yds to the Geo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
48.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for 9 yds to the Geo 18Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+2
48.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Geo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
48.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd to the Geo 15Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
48.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+11
47.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 11 yds to the Geo 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
48.4%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Geo 4Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
48.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q1 1:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
47.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Ethan WolfSimilar
Q1 1:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
50.3%
Aaron Medley 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4251% → 57%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
49.5%
Sony Michel run for no gain to the Geo 25Similar
Q1 0:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+18
49.9%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Sony Michel for 18 yds to the Geo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+29
48.3%
Sony Michel run for 29 yds to the Tenn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
42.7%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 28 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:2544% → 43%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
43.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 19 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
44.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Geo 46Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+1
44.2%
Jauan Jennings run for 1 yd to the Geo 45Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
43.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
42.8%
Trevor Daniel punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Reggie Davis at the Geo 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:5257% → 60%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
42.7%
Sony Michel run for 7 yds to the Geo 15Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+3
41.9%
Sony Michel run for 3 yds to the Geo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
41.7%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the Geo 19Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+16
41.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Jay Rome for 16 yds to the Geo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
41.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Reggie Davis for 35 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
39.7%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+4
39.5%
Sony Michel run for 4 yds to the Tenn 24Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
39.4%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+41
40.3%
Marshall Morgan 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:0241% → 40%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
40.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 19 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
41.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
41.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 8 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
40.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Von PearsonSimilar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
39.5%
Trevor Daniel punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Reggie Davis at the Geo 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12FG
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:0161% → 67%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
39.5%
Sony Michel run for 4 yds to the Geo 12Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+66
38.4%
Sony Michel run for 66 yds to the Tenn 22 Sony Michel fumbled, forced by Cameron Sutton, recovered by Geo for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
36.2%
Keith Marshall run for 4 yds to the Tenn 18Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+3
36.1%
Keith Marshall run for 3 yds to the Tenn 15Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 3
OPP 15
-5
36.0%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (Malcolm Mitchell) to the Tenn 20Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
35.7%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
33.1%
Marshall Morgan 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13FUMBLE TD
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1033% → 24%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
32.7%
Alvin Kamara run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 24Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
32.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-7
31.9%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Dominick Sanders for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 17Similar
Q2 3:27
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+70
23.7%
Reggie Davis 70 Yd Punt Return (Marshall Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:0526% → 31%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
25.9%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 46Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
25.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+7
24.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 7 yds to the Geo 47Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+6
24.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 6 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
24.7%
Alvin Kamara run for 2 yds to the Geo 39Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
24.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alex EllisSimilar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
23.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alex EllisSimilar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 8
OPP 39
+39
31.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 39 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:2333% → 46%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
33.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Von PearsonSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
32.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alvin KamaraSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+23
31.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 23 yds to the Geo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
33.2%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Geo 2Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 2 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:2062% → 61%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
37.9%
Michel, Sony rush for 1 yard to the GEORGIA26, PENALTY GEORGIA holding (Wynn, Isaiah) 10 yards to the GEORGIA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+1
38.7%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the Geo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:3239% → 36%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
39.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
41.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
40.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
41.2%
Alvin Kamara run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 14
OWN 43
-2
38.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 41Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 16
OWN 41
0
37.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
35.9%
Trevor Daniel punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Reggie Davis at the Geo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2264% → 62%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
36.1%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the Geo 26Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+1
35.7%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the Geo 27Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
37.1%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Reggie DavisSimilar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
38.4%
Collin Barber punt for 41 yds, downed at the Tenn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:1439% → 62%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
38.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 1 yd to the Tenn 34Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+9
38.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 9 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
40.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+33
40.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Preston Williams for 33 yds to the Geo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+20
44.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 20 yds to the Geo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
44.0%
GEORGIA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (1 Yards) to the Geo 1Similar
Q3 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 9 yds · 3:4148% → 46%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
52.0%
Greyson Lambert sacked by Derek Barnett for a loss of 6 yards to the Geo 20Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 16
OWN 20
0
52.7%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 16
OWN 20
+15
53.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 15 yds to the Geo 35Similar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+2
52.8%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
51.0%
Michel, Sony rush for no gain to the GEORGIA37, PENALTY GEORGIA holding (Mitchell, Malcolm) 10 yards to the GEORGIA27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+12
52.3%
Keith Marshall run for 12 yds to the Geo 39Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
49.7%
Keith Marshall run for 1 yd to the Geo 40Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-5
51.0%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (Kolton Houston) to the Geo 35Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
53.0%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Keith MarshallSimilar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
54.2%
Collin Barber punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 3:0460% → 81%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
59.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for no gain to the Tenn 44Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+16
58.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 16 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
61.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+26
63.1%
Joshua Dobbs run for 26 yds to the Geo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
63.2%
Alvin Kamara run for 3 yds to the Geo 5Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
63.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Geo 2Similar
Q3 1:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 2 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 22TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:1725% → 53%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
75.3%
Sony Michel run for 4 yds to the Geo 31Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
74.8%
Sony Michel run for 4 yds to the Geo 35Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+17
75.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 17 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
47.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Reggie Davis for 48 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23PUNT
14 plays · 38 yds · 4:2957% → 58%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
57.4%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Jalen Hurd) to the Tenn 20Similar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
57.0%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 20Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+17
56.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for 17 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
59.0%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Kyler Kerbyson) to the Tenn 32Similar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+12
57.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 12 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
61.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for no gain to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+7
60.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alex Ellis for 7 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
62.6%
Joshua Dobbs run for 8 yds to the Geo 41Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+3
63.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for 3 yds to the Geo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
63.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 41Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+4
60.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 4 yds to the Geo 37Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
62.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Von PearsonSimilar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
58.4%
Trevor Daniel punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3148% → 45%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
52.4%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the Geo 22Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
52.6%
Sony Michel run for 4 yds to the Geo 26Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
53.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Sony MichelSimilar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
55.5%
Collin Barber punt for 52 yds, downed at the Tenn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:4958% → 92%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
57.7%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 22Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+34
57.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 34 yds to the Geo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
63.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Geo 42Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
63.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+24
62.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alex Ellis for 24 yds to the Geo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
65.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Geo 13Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+8
66.0%
Joshua Dobbs run for 8 yds to the Geo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
92.3%
Joshua Dobbs run for 5 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:0013% → 11%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
87.1%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the Geo 20Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+23
87.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 23 yds to the Geo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
85.7%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the Geo 44Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
86.0%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Malcolm MitchellSimilar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
87.1%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Reggie DavisSimilar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 9
OWN 44
+23
89.5%
Collin Barber punt for 45 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 23 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4393% → 95%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
93.3%
Joshua Dobbs run for 7 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+2
94.6%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
95.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for no gain to the Tenn 43Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
94.9%
Trevor Daniel punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Geo 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 28END OF GAME
14 plays · 72 yds · 1:388% → 12%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
92.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Sony Michel for 6 yds to the Geo 7Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+18
92.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Reggie Davis for 18 yds to the Geo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.7%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
91.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+19
92.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Terry Godwin for 19 yds to the Geo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
90.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Jay Rome for 9 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+2
89.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Sony Michel for 2 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
90.7%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Reggie DavisSimilar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
91.0%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Malcolm MitchellSimilar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+23
91.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kenneth Towns for 23 yds to the Tenn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
84.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-5
86.1%
GEORGIA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 27Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 27
0
87.7%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Malcolm MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:53
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Reggie Davis for 48 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)
-28
TD · Q4 5:48
Joshua Dobbs run for 5 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+26.3
TD · Q3 1:26
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 2 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+17.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com