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NMSU

New Mexico State 3 at Ole Miss 52

MISS
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:20 · Parker Davidson 36 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Pregame prior+32.7Home team on offense+27.8Score differential+24.6Blowout margin+12.9Garbage-time factor+8.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 4:24: Parker Davidson 39 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
  2. TD · Q1 3:03: Jordan Wilkins run for 11 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:00: Akeem Judd run for 3 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:58: Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 66 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:18: Chad Kelly run for 4 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 1 of 3NMSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 11:25MISS 4th & 4 at NMSU 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:24NMSU 4th & 19 at MISS 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:33NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:05NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:41NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:30NMSU 4th & 18 at MISS 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:35NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 49, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:51MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 13, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:41NMSU 4th & 10 at MISS 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:20NMSU 4th & 10 at MISS 18, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:59NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 40, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:34NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 48, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:24MISS 4th & 9 at NMSU 19, up 49
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 3:03MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:00MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:58MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:18MISS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:25MISS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:25MISS Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:47MISS Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 3:2799% → 99%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
99.2%
Jordan Wilkins run for 7 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+8
99.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 8 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
99.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 7 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+6
99.2%
Jordan Wilkins run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
99.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 6 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+11
99.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 11 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
99.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 6 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+4
99.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 4 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.1%
Akeem Judd run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.1%
Akeem Judd run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.1%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
99.0%
Gary Wunderlich 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2FG
18 plays · 67 yds · 6:381% → 2%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+16
99.0%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 16 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
99.0%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-7
99.0%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 16
OWN 22
+21
99.0%
Nick Jeanty run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
98.9%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-3
98.8%
Nick Jeanty sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 46 Nick Jeanty fumbled, forced by Marquis Haynes, recovered by NMxStSimilar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+15
98.8%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for 15 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
98.7%
Xavier Hall run for 16 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
98.7%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
98.6%
Nick Jeanty run for 4 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+7
98.6%
Xavier Hall run for 7 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
98.5%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-15
98.5%
Jeanty, Nick pass incomplete to Bergstrom, Jordan, PENALTY NEWMEXST personal foul (Folasa-Lutui, Isaiah) 15 yards to the OLEMISS25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 23
OPP 25
+4
98.5%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 4 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 19
OPP 21
0
98.5%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 19
OPP 21
+39
98.4%
Parker Davidson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:0598% → 99%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+32
98.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Hunter Thurley for 32 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
98.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
98.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+6
98.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 6 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
98.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for 11 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:172% → 2%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
98.5%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
98.5%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 3 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+3
98.4%
Nick Jeanty run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 1:33
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Anthony Torres punt for 32 yds , Carlos Davis returns for no gain to the Miss 43 Carlos Davis fumbled, recovered by Miss Carlos DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 1:2598% → 99%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
98.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 12 yds Laquon Treadwell fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
98.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 5 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+20
98.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Taz Zettergren for 20 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
98.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+17
98.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 17 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.8%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:451% → 2%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.6%
Andrew Allen run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
98.5%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-8
98.5%
Andrew Allen sacked by Robert Nkemdiche for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
98.5%
Anthony Torres punt for 35 yds, downed at the Miss 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7INT
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:1699% → 99%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
98.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 22 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
98.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 7 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+7
98.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 7 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
98.6%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted Terrill Hanks return for 7 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8FUMBLE
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:402% → 2%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
98.4%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+8
98.3%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 8 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+5
98.3%
Andrew Allen run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.3%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 3 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-7
98.2%
Andrew Allen sacked by Terry Caldwell for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+2
98.2%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Xavier Hall for 2 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
98.2%
Anthony Torres punt for 39 yds , D.K. Buford returns for no gain to the Miss 23 D.K. Buford fumbled, recovered by NMxStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
97.9%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
97.8%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-8
97.9%
Nick Jeanty sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 18
OPP 31
+49
98.1%
Parker Davidson 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:2498% → 99%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
98.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+66
99.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 66 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:041% → 1%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
99.0%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+10
99.0%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 10 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+5
98.9%
Andrew Allen run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
98.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 12 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
98.9%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 7
50
-3
98.9%
Andrew Allen pass intercepted Trae Elston return for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 1:1199% → 100%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
99.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Derrick Jones for 19 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
99.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Derrick JonesSimilar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+17
99.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 17 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+32
99.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 32 yds to the NMxSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
99.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 6 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.3%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Chad Kelly run for 4 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
99.8%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.8%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:171% → 0%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.1%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.6%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+11
99.7%
Larry Rose III run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.7%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Anthony Torres punt for 44 yds, downed at the Miss 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:35100% → 100%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-5
99.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 2Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 15
OWN 2
+11
99.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 11 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 4
OWN 13
0
99.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q3 11:51
4TH & 4
OWN 13
0
99.8%
Will Gleeson punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.8%
Jeanty, Nick pass incomplete to Hogan, Gregory, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Liggins, Jeremy) 5 yards to the NEWMEXST46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEWMEXST.Similar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
99.8%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 9 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+2
99.8%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
99.8%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Rayvean Moore for 5 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-5
99.8%
Jermichael Selders run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Anthony Torres punt for 31 yds , Carlos Davis returns for no gain to the Miss 12. Carlos Davis fumbled, recovered by Miss Carlos Davis, return for 9 yds to the Miss 21. Carlos Davis fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Jacob Nwangwa at Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.8%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-5
99.8%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 15
OPP 23
+5
99.8%
Andrew Allen run for 5 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
99.7%
Parker Davidson 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 6 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
Akeem Judd run for 5 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
99.9%
Akeem Judd run for 8 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+1
99.9%
Akeem Judd run for 1 yd to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
Akeem Judd run for 5 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
99.9%
Chad Kelly run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+15
99.9%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete to Jones, Derrick, PENALTY NEWMEXST pass interference (Rose, Winston) 15 yards to the NEWMEXST20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 20 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19INT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:180% → 0%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 1 yd to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+17
99.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Rayvean Moore for 17 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
99.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Jermichael Selders for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Andrew Allen pass intercepted Mike Hilton return for no gain to the Miss 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 7 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 4 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+12
99.9%
Chad Kelly run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+10
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
99.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 37 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:160% → 0%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Xavier HallSimilar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
100.0%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 11 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
100.0%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Nick Jeanty run for no gain to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Anthony Torres punt for 59 yds, downed at the Miss 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
3 plays · 99 yds · 0:55100% → 100%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+17
100.0%
Akeem Judd run for 17 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
99.9%
Akeem Judd run for 4 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+78
100.0%
Eugene Brazley run for 78 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:500% → 0%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
100.0%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Clayton Granch for 12 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
100.0%
Jermichael Selders run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+5
100.0%
Jermichael Selders run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
100.0%
Jermichael Selders run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+6
100.0%
Jermichael Selders run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
50
-2
100.0%
Nick Jeanty run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 48 Nick Jeanty fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Xavier HallSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 12
OWN 48
-5
100.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 16
OWN 44
+4
100.0%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Xavier Hall for 4 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Anthony Torres punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24DOWNS
11 plays · 44 yds · 6:01100% → 100%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
100.0%
DeVante Kincade run for 3 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+12
100.0%
Akeem Judd run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
100.0%
Akeem Judd run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+9
100.0%
Akeem Judd run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
100.0%
DeVante Kincade run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
100.0%
Eugene Brazley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-5
100.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 14
OPP 24
-13
100.0%
Kincade, DeVante rush for 7 yards to the NEWMEXST17, PENALTY OLEMISS personal foul (Feeley, Jacob) 13 yards to the NEWMEXST37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 27
OPP 37
+2
100.0%
D.K. Buford run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 25
OPP 35
+16
100.0%
DeVante Kincade pass complete to Collins Moore for 16 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 9
OPP 19
0
100.0%
DeVante Kincade pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:300% → 0%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
100.0%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 4 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-1
100.0%
Jermichael Selders run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:58
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 66 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+1.1
TD · Q2 1:18
Chad Kelly run for 4 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q1 0:00
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+0.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com