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TROY

Troy 17 at Mississippi State 45

MSST
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:29 · Logan Cooke punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Pregame prior+43.9Home team on offense+3.8Score differential+1.9Blowout margin−0.2Garbage-time factor+1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 11:39: Westin Graves 42 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:43: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 28 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:46: Dontreal Pruitt run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK) — MSST win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:49: Brandon Burks run for 74 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK) — TROY win probability +0.9 pts (now 1%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:11: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 49 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TROY made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 13:07TROY 4th & 26 at TROY 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:46MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:22TROY 4th & 14 at TROY 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:29MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:04TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:58TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 30, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:37MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 34, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:39MSST 4th & 3 at TROY 24, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.3%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:39TROY 4th & 18 at TROY 17, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:49TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 35, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:20MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 35, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:02TROY 4th & 16 at TROY 14, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:36MSST 4th & 1 at TROY 21, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:54TROY 4th & 9 at MSST 37, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 12:54TROY 4th & 1 at MSST 6, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:37MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 32, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:33TROY 4th & 13 at MSST 34, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:11TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 44, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:17MSST 4th & 14 at MSST 27, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:27TROY 4th & 4 at MSST 4, down 31
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:24MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:43MSST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:47MSST Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:46TROY Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:49TROY Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:11MSST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:3697% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
97.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 6 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+59
97.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 59 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:093% → 3%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
97.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 9 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+1
97.4%
Andre Flakes run for 1 yd to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
97.3%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Brandon Bryant for a loss of 13 yards Brandon Silvers fumbled, recovered by MisSt Nelson Adams , return for 0 yards for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
97.3%
Brandon Silvers run for no gain to the Troy 47 TROY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 20
OWN 37
0
97.3%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 20
OWN 37
-5
97.3%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 25
OWN 32
-1
97.3%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 26
OWN 31
+3
97.3%
Ryan Kay punt for 44 yds , Fred Ross returns for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
97.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 9 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+3
97.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
97.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+2
97.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
97.2%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+38
97.2%
Logan Cooke punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the MISSSTATE 23 TROY Penalty, delay of game (Teddy Ruben) to the Troy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
97.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 3 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+2
97.1%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+16
97.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 16 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
97.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 5 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+7
97.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 7 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
97.0%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-5
97.0%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Kivon Coman and A.J. Jefferson for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 9:22
4TH & 14
OWN 47
0
97.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
96.9%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
96.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete, broken up by Darrin ReddickSimilar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
96.9%
Logan Cooke punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:363% → 3%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
96.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Brandon BurksSimilar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+8
96.7%
Dallas Tidwell pass complete to Brandon Burks for 8 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+6
96.7%
Dallas Tidwell pass complete to Clark Quisenberry for 6 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
96.7%
Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete to Clark Quisenberry, broken up by Jamal PetersSimilar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
96.7%
Dallas Tidwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
96.7%
Dallas Tidwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+77
97.5%
Ryan Kay punt for 39 yds , Fred Ross returns for 77 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
97.5%
Dallas Tidwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
97.5%
Andre Flakes run for 9 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 1
OWN 33
-3
97.5%
Andre Flakes run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
97.5%
Ryan Kay punt for 44 yds, downed at the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 4:5898% → 98%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
97.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 6 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
97.5%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+2
97.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 1:37
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+11
97.4%
Logan Cooke run for 11 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
97.6%
Brandon Holloway run for 1 yd to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
97.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Brandon Holloway, broken up by Cedarius RookardSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+12
97.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 12 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
97.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 5 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+6
97.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 6 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
97.7%
Brandon Holloway run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 34
0
97.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 34
+10
97.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 10 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+42
98.0%
Westin Graves 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
97.8%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 19Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-2
97.9%
Dallas Tidwell pass complete to Bryan Holmes for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 17Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
97.9%
Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete to Bryan Holmes, broken up by Ryan BrownSimilar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
97.9%
Ryan Kay punt for 35 yds, downed at the MisSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:2998% → 99%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
98.2%
Malik Dear run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+7
98.2%
Dontavian Lee run for 7 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+5
98.1%
Dontavian Lee run for 5 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
98.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 13 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
98.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 28 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:541% → 1%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.8%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
98.7%
Brandon Burks run for 7 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
98.9%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.0%
Andre Flakes run for no gain to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-8
99.0%
Andre Flakes run for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 28 Andre Flakes fumbled, recovered by Troy Andre FlakesSimilar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 18
OWN 28
+7
99.1%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 7 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 7:49
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
99.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
99.3%
Brandon Holloway run for 9 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
99.2%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
99.2%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
99.2%
Logan Cooke punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:371% → 1%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-13
99.4%
Dontreal Pruitt sacked by Ryan Brown for a loss of 13 yards to the Troy 7Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 23
OWN 7
+1
99.4%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 1 yd to the Troy 8Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 22
OWN 8
+6
99.4%
Brandon Burks run for 6 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 16
OWN 14
-5
99.5%
Ryan Kay punt for 36 yds , Fred Ross returns for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Brown for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 5
50
+48
99.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 48 yds to the Troy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.5%
Ashton Shumpert run for 1 yd to the Troy 1Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.7%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Bryan Holmes for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete to Teddy Ruben, broken up by Kivon ComanSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete to Teddy Ruben, broken up by Tolando ClevelandSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Dallas Tidwell pass intercepted Beniquez Brown return for 2 yds to the Troy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.7%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+4
99.7%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q3 14:36
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
99.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Troy 21Similar
Q3 14:36
4TH & 1
OPP 21
-2
99.7%
Malik Dear run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19TD
17 plays · 77 yds · 9:080% → 0%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
99.7%
Pruitt, D. pass complete to Burks, Brandon for loss of 3 yards to the TROY20 (Zach Jackson), PENALTY MS 12 men on the field 5 yards to the TROY28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 5
OWN 28
-4
99.6%
Dontreal Pruitt run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+16
99.7%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 16 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.7%
Andre Flakes run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+8
99.7%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 8 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
99.6%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 8 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+2
99.6%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
99.6%
Dontreal Pruitt run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 14
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to Teddy Ruben, broken up by Nelson AdamsSimilar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 14
OPP 42
-5
99.7%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 19
OPP 47
+10
99.7%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 10 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 9
OPP 37
+22
99.7%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 22 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
99.6%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 4 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+5
99.6%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 5 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 1
OPP 6
0
99.6%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the MisSt 6Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+1
99.3%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.7%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
99.8%
Dontavian Lee run for 6 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+1
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 32 Nick Fitzgerald fumbled, forced by Cedarius Rookard, recovered by MisSt Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21TD
2 plays · 82 yds · 0:530% → 1%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
99.9%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 8 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+74
99.0%
Brandon Burks run for 74 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22DOWNS
12 plays · 3 yds · 4:141% → 1%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.0%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to Bryan HolmesSimilar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
99.0%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 9 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
99.0%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 3 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
99.1%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 6 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+1
99.0%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+4
99.0%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 4 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
98.9%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
99.0%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Andre Flakes for 2 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 29
-5
99.0%
Dontreal Pruitt sacked by Tolando Cleveland for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 13
OPP 34
-17
99.3%
John Johnson run for a loss of 17 yards to the Troy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23TD
1 play · 49 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 49 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.9%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 14 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.9%
Andre Flakes run for 5 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-2
99.9%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Deondre Douglas for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 42Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 2 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Ryan Kay punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for no gain to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
99.9%
Elijah Staley run for 11 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
99.9%
Elijah Staley pass complete to Malik Dear for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 14
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Elijah Staley run for no gain to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 14
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Elijah Staley pass incomplete to Aeris WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:17
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Logan Cooke punt for 42 yds, downed at the Troy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:390% → 0%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
100.0%
Dontreal Pruitt run for no gain to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
100.0%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 11 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
100.0%
Pruitt, D. pass complete to Flakes, Andre for 3 yards to the TROY45 (Grant Harris), PENALTY MS holding (Jamoral Graham) 10 yards to the MS48, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
100.0%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
100.0%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 7 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+8
99.9%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 8 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
99.9%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 6 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, illegal use of hands (Grant Harris) to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
99.9%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 9 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+2
99.9%
Andre Flakes run for 2 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.9%
Andre Flakes run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 4Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.9%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.9%
Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q4 0:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
99.9%
Jed Solomon 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+23
100.0%
Dontavian Lee run for 23 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:49
Brandon Burks run for 74 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)
-0.9
TD · Q2 8:43
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 28 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q4 11:11
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 49 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
+0.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com