Try the model
ARK

Arkansas 14 at Alabama 27

ALA
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:49 · Toby Baker punt for 41 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 27 yds to the Ark 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Pregame prior+3.1Home team on offense+22.7Score differential+8.6Garbage-time factor+6.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:29: Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +9.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:05: Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Ark 45 — ARK win probability +6.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:39: Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 81 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +24.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:49: Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +10.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 10:07: Adam Griffith 35 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +4.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ARK made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 12:40ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:09ALA 4th & 7 at ARK 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    82.6%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:35ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:46ALA 4th & 5 at ARK 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    79.6%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:09ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:06ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:39ALA 4th & 11 at ALA 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:21ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:04ALA 4th & 9 at ARK 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:24ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:37ALA 4th & 15 at ALA 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−3.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:39ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:57ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−1.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:50ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:23ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 41, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.4%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:07ALA 4th & 14 at ARK 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−4.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:34ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:24ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 49, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%−1.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:49ARK 4th & 17 at ARK 2, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 1:29ARK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 1:39ALA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:49ALA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:44ALA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:37ARK Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5317% → 17%
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
83.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to JoJo Robinson for 15 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
83.3%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+2
83.0%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
82.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
82.9%
Toby Baker punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2FG
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:1183% → 82%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
82.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 6 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+10
82.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 10 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
82.6%
Kenyan Drake run for no gain to the Alab 29Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
82.4%
Jake Coker run for 7 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+7
82.3%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 7 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
82.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 9 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+1
82.5%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
82.4%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+37
82.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 37 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
82.1%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Ark 5Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
81.9%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 7Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
81.6%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to O.J. HowardSimilar
Q1 7:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
81.9%
Adam Griffith 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0518% → 18%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.7%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
81.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
81.9%
Toby Baker punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4MISSED FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 5:3481% → 80%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
81.3%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+8
81.5%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
81.5%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 46Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+5
81.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+3
81.4%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+5
81.2%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
81.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 8 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+6
81.2%
Kenyan Drake run for 6 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
81.1%
Kenyan Drake run for 6 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+2
81.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 2 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+6
80.5%
Jake Coker run for 6 yds to the Ark 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
80.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Hale Hentges for 5 yds to the Ark 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
80.8%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
80.4%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to O.J. HowardSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
79.8%
Adam Griffith 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:1620% → 20%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
79.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 21 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
78.7%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+2
78.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 2 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-5
78.3%
Brandon Allen sacked by Rashaan Evans for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
79.6%
Toby Baker punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4179% → 79%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
78.7%
Derrick Henry run for 12 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
78.7%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
79.4%
Jake Coker pass intercepted Josh Liddell return for no gain to the Ark 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5422% → 21%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
78.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for no gain to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
78.5%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
79.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Rawleigh WilliamsSimilar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+34
79.3%
Toby Baker punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the ALABAMA 30 ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Alab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1978% → 77%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.4%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
78.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Cam Robinson) to the Alab 30Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+3
78.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 3 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+1
77.3%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
76.8%
JK Scott punt for 55 yds, fair catch by D.J. Dean at the Ark 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 4:1322% → 22%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
77.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 4 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+2
77.9%
Rawleigh Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+6
78.3%
Brandon Allen run for 6 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
77.4%
Rawleigh Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+7
76.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 7 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
76.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Dominique ReedSimilar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
76.9%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+2
77.6%
Brandon Allen run for 2 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q2 4:21
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+4
77.9%
Toby Baker punt for 49 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 4 yds to the Alab 40 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (Marlon Humphrey) to the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:2977% → 76%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
76.9%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 9Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+10
76.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 10 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+6
75.5%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.4%
Jake Coker pass intercepted for a 1ST down Santos Ramirez return for 18 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-12 Yards) to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:1128% → 37%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
71.9%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
71.8%
Brandon Allen run for 6 yds to the Alab 4Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
62.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12DOWNS
12 plays · 42 yds · 1:1067% → 69%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
67.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 4 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+1
67.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 1 yd to the Alab 32Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+5
66.0%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
67.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 9 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+9
68.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 9 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
68.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 6 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+9
67.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Holding (Henre' Toliver) to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
69.0%
Jake Coker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+48
68.7%
Adam Griffith 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:3666% → 64%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
66.2%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 13 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
67.8%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+8
67.7%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
68.3%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
68.1%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
67.0%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Derrick HenrySimilar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 9
OPP 48
+26
64.3%
TEAM punt 26 yards to the Ark 22, blocked by Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:2137% → 38%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
63.0%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
62.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+18
63.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 18 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
60.1%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
59.8%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
60.2%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
62.4%
Toby Baker punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2063% → 60%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-11
62.5%
Jake Coker sacked by Deatrich Wise Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the Alab 4Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 21
OWN 4
+2
61.4%
Kenyan Drake run for 2 yds to the Alab 6Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 19
OWN 6
+4
60.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 4 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 15
OWN 10
0
59.5%
JK Scott punt for 45 yds , D.J. Dean returns for no gain to the Ark 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5842% → 41%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
58.3%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Dan Skipper) to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
59.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to JoJo RobinsonSimilar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+6
59.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 6 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+8
58.7%
Brandon Allen run for 8 yds to the Alab 46 Brandon Allen fumbled, forced by Reggie Ragland, recovered by ArkSimilar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-5
58.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 49Similar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
59.2%
Toby Baker punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4259% → 53%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
58.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Alphonse Taylor) to the Alab 11Similar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+18
58.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 18 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
58.9%
Henry, Derrick rush for 4 yards to the ALABAMA33, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Robinson, Cam) 10 yards to the ALABAMA19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+4
57.8%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 16
OWN 23
+2
57.0%
Kenyan Drake run for 2 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+8
55.1%
Jake Coker run for 8 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q3 4:57
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+11
53.4%
JK Scott punt for 58 yds , D.J. Dean returns for 11 yds to the Ark 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:0746% → 51%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
54.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 15Similar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
54.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+4
54.8%
Rawleigh Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+21
53.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 21 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
47.2%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
45.4%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 1:56
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
45.5%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:50
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
48.7%
Toby Baker punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19TD
1 play · 81 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+81
72.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 81 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0429% → 28%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
71.2%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
69.2%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Ark 41Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
70.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+2
72.4%
Toby Baker run for 2 yds to the Ark 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:1176% → 90%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
75.9%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Ark 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
75.7%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+10
74.4%
Coker, Jake pass incomplete, PENALTY ARKANSAS holding (Dean, D.J.) 10 yards to the ARKANSAS32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
79.4%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+15
79.3%
Jake Coker run for 15 yds to the Ark 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
79.3%
Kenyan Drake run for 7 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+6
79.4%
Kenyan Drake run for 6 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:2312% → 12%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
87.8%
Rawleigh Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+20
88.2%
Brandon Allen pass intercepted Eddie Jackson return for 20 yds to the Ark 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23FG
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3090% → 94%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
89.7%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Ark 7Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 4
OPP 7
-3
89.7%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 10Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 7
OPP 10
-7
89.5%
Jake Coker sacked by Mitchell Loewen for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 17Similar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 14
OPP 17
+35
94.4%
Adam Griffith 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:217% → 6%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
93.0%
Brandon Allen sacked by Reggie Ragland for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 22Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
93.2%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+4
93.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Alex Collins for 4 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+8
93.7%
Toby Baker punt for 42 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 8 yds to the Alab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5996% → 96%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
95.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 2 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
95.8%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+4
96.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 4 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
96.1%
JK Scott punt for 42 yds, fair catch by D.J. Dean at the Ark 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:115% → 5%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
94.6%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Ark 10Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
94.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 9
OWN 10
-8
94.8%
Brandon Allen sacked by Tim Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 2Similar
Q4 4:49
4TH & 17
OWN 2
+27
95.0%
Toby Baker punt for 41 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 27 yds to the Ark 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 27TD
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:4197% → 99%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
96.9%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Ark 14Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 8
OPP 14
-2
97.2%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 16Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+15
97.3%
Derrick Henry run for 15 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.4%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 28TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:031% → 4%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.5%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to JoJo RobinsonSimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+18
99.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 18 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.5%
Rawleigh Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+54
95.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 54 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 29END OF GAME
10 plays · 6 yds · 1:3098% → 99%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
97.9%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+1
98.3%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+13
98.3%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 13 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
98.4%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 13
OPP 45
-1
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 46
-2
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:39
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 81 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+24
TD · Q4 12:49
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q2 1:29
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)
-9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com