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AUB

Auburn 30 at Kentucky 27

UK
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2015 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Kevin Phillips punt for 34 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 188Home team on offense−5.6Score differential−3.4Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.9Pregame prior+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Daniel Carlson 52 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +5.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:49: Stanley Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +11.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FG · Q3 1:03: Austin MacGinnis 31 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +3.6 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:56: Peyton Barber run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +22.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:06: Mikel Horton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +25.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 7 of 9AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 6:10UK 4th & 7 at UK 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:13UK 4th & 7 at UK 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:13AUB 4th & 16 at UK 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:32AUB 4th & 16 at UK 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    53.6%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:59AUB 4th & 7 at UK 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    53.0%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:55UK 4th & 11 at AUB 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:43AUB 4th & 6 at UK 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:57UK 4th & 13 at UK 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:42AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 47, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:38UK 4th & 6 at AUB 42, down 6
    Close callPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    41.0%−2.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:10AUB 4th & 17 at AUB 13, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−4.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:00UK 4th & 1 at AUB 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    34.7%−6.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−4.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:03UK 4th & 3 at AUB 14, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.8%−1.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−15.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−2.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:52UK 4th & 6 at UK 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−2.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:19AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 47, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 8.5 ptsPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−8.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:12UK 4th & 3 at AUB 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    27.2%−3.0
    27% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−7.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:07AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:46UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:10AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:49UK Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:56AUB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:06UK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
25 plays · 80 yds · 3:4848% → 50%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
51.9%
Roc Thomas run for 3 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
51.9%
Sean White pass incomplete to Kerryon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+27
51.9%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
50
+1
51.9%
Sean White run for 1 yd to the Kent 49Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
51.9%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+10
51.9%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 10 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
51.9%
Roc Thomas run for 4 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
51.9%
Roc Thomas run for 2 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+22
51.9%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 22 yds to the Kent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
51.9%
KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (6 Yards) to the Kent 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
51.9%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Kent 3Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
51.9%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
51.9%
Roc Thomas run for 3 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
52.0%
Sean White pass incomplete to Kerryon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+27
52.0%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
50
+1
51.9%
Sean White run for 1 yd to the Kent 49Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
51.9%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+10
52.0%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 10 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
51.9%
Roc Thomas run for 4 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
51.9%
Roc Thomas run for 2 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+28
52.0%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 22 yds to the Kent 11 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (Chris Westry) to the Kent 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
51.8%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Kent 3Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
51.8%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.5%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:2151% → 54%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
51.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 7 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
51.2%
Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
51.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+60
51.1%
Stanley Williams run for 60 yds to the Aub 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
51.6%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Aub 1Similar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 7 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
51.1%
Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
50.9%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+60
50.8%
Stanley Williams run for 60 yds to the Aub 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
51.5%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Aub 1Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.5%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3TD
14 plays · 59 yds · 2:2948% → 52%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+41
52.1%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 41 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
51.6%
Sean White run for no gain to the Kent 18Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
51.7%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+7
51.9%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 7 yds to the Kent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
51.6%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the Kent 6Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
51.6%
Sean White pass incomplete, broken up by A.J. StampsSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+41
52.2%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 41 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
51.7%
Sean White run for no gain to the Kent 18Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
51.6%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+7
51.8%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 7 yds to the Kent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
51.6%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the Kent 6Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
51.5%
Sean White pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
48.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 0:5750% → 49%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.5%
Patrick Towles run for 3 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
49.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Stanley WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
49.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
49.0%
Landon Foster punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 45Similar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.5%
Patrick Towles run for 3 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
49.4%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Stanley WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
49.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
48.7%
Landon Foster punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 11 yds · 1:4152% → 51%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
48.3%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 17 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
48.1%
Sean White run for no gain to the Kent 38Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-10
48.1%
[SHOT], Sean White pass incomplete, PENALTY AU holding (Avery Young) 10 yards to the UK48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+4
48.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 16
OPP 44
0
48.9%
Sean White pass incomplete to Roc Thomas, broken up by Farrington HugueninSimilar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 16
OPP 44
0
49.3%
Kevin Phillips punt for 37 ydsSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
48.2%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 17 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
47.9%
Sean White run for no gain to the Kent 38Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-10
47.7%
AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Avery Young) to the Kent 48Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+4
48.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 16
OPP 44
0
48.3%
Sean White pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 16
OPP 44
0
48.8%
Kevin Phillips punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ryan Timmons at the Kent 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6INT
21 plays · 85 yds · 4:3649% → 50%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
48.7%
Mikel Horton run for 1 yd to the Kent 8Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 9
OWN 8
-4
48.7%
[SHOT], PENALTY UK false start (Cole Mosier) 4 yards to the UK4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 13
OWN 4
+2
48.7%
Mikel Horton run for 2 yds to the Kent 6Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 11
OWN 6
+20
48.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Charles Walker for 20 yds to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
48.9%
Patrick Towles run for 12 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
49.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 20 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
50.3%
Stanley Williams run for 6 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+12
50.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 12 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
48.7%
Mikel Horton run for 1 yd to the Kent 8Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 9
OWN 8
-4
48.6%
KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Cole Mosier) to the Kent 4Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 13
OWN 4
+2
48.1%
Mikel Horton run for 2 yds to the Kent 6Similar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 11
OWN 6
+20
47.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Charles Walker for 20 yds to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
48.1%
Patrick Towles run for 12 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
48.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 20 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
49.3%
Stanley Williams run for 6 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+12
49.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 12 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
49.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 1 yd to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+15
49.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 15 yds to the Aub 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
49.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 1 yd to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+15
49.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 15 yds to the Aub 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
49.7%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted Carlton Davis return for no gain to the Aub 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:5753% → 57%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
46.8%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
46.4%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+14
46.5%
Sean White pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 14 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
45.5%
Sean White pass complete to Jason Smith for 6 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+5
45.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
45.2%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+13
45.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 13 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
45.1%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+10
45.0%
Peyton Barber run for 10 yds to the Kent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
45.0%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
45.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Kent 17Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
45.3%
Sean White pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
43.3%
Daniel Carlson 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:0442% → 43%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
41.7%
[SHOT], Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 22 yards to the UK47 (Blake Countess;Carlton Davis), PENALTY UK pass interference 12 yards to the UK13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 22
OWN 13
0
41.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Stanley WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
41.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Charles WalkerSimilar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+39
40.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 39 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
43.5%
Jojo Kemp run for 4 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-2
43.7%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 46Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+36
42.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 36 yds to the Aub 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
44.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Blake Bone for 6 yds to the Aub 4Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
44.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q2 8:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-7
43.5%
Patrick Towles sacked by Johnathan Ford for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 11Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
43.4%
Austin MacGinnis 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 3:0659% → 64%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
41.2%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 13 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
40.1%
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 9 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+12
39.6%
Sean White run for 12 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
39.9%
Peyton Barber run for 6 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 4
OPP 0
+12
39.9%
Peyton Barber run for 12 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the Kent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
39.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Kent 13Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+2
39.9%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Kent 11Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 5
OPP 11
-1
40.3%
Roc Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 12Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
36.4%
Daniel Carlson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:4036% → 35%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
35.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 5 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
36.0%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-8
35.3%
Patrick Towles sacked by DaVonte Lambert for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 19Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 13
OWN 19
+1
35.3%
Landon Foster punt for 40 yds , Marcus Davis returns for 1 yd to the Aub 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:4765% → 74%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
35.1%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
34.8%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 2
50
+16
32.8%
Sean White pass complete to Peyton Barber for 16 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
31.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
31.5%
Sean White pass incomplete to Tony StevensSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+52
26.1%
Daniel Carlson 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1133% → 48%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.5%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
32.4%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
31.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 9 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
32.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 12 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
34.1%
Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+16
34.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 16 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
35.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 13 yds to the Aub 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
35.8%
Stanley Williams run for 13 yds to the Aub 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
47.6%
Stanley Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
39.5%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 15 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
37.6%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
38.1%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
37.8%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo Louis, broken up by Chris WestrySimilar
Q3 11:42
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
39.6%
Kevin Phillips punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:0042% → 43%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
41.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 17 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
42.8%
Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+12
44.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 12 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
46.0%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
46.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
45.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson, broken up by Blake CountessSimilar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
43.2%
Landon Foster punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
37.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 19Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+6
38.4%
Sean White run for 6 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-12
37.9%
Sean White sacked by Jason Hatcher for a loss of 12 yards to the Aub 13Similar
Q3 8:10
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
40.2%
Kevin Phillips punt for 42 yds, downed at the Kent 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16FG
13 plays · 40 yds · 4:5743% → 48%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
43.2%
Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
44.2%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
43.7%
Jojo Kemp run for 1 yd to the Aub 45Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
41.9%
Jojo Kemp run for 1 yd to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
44.4%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-1
44.1%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 45Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+13
41.5%
Patrick Towles run for 13 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
46.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 11 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
46.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 6 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-5
46.1%
[SHOT], PENALTY UK substitution infraction 5 yards to the AU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+6
46.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 6 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 3
OPP 14
0
44.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+31
47.6%
Austin MacGinnis 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5459% → 55%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
41.3%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the Aub 37Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
41.6%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo Louis, broken up by J.D. HarmonSimilar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
43.2%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
45.0%
Kevin Phillips punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0046% → 43%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
45.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 4 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
46.1%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 33Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
44.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Charles WalkerSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
42.9%
Landon Foster punt for 34 yds, downed at the Aub 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 5:3059% → 87%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
41.0%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 7 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+1
39.0%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
39.5%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
39.0%
[SHOT], PENALTY AU false start (DaVonte Lambert) 5 yards to the AU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+6
41.0%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 6 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+7
39.0%
Sean White pass complete to Jason Smith for 7 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+4
38.8%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
38.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-5
38.2%
[SHOT], PENALTY AU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the UK46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+34
38.9%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 34 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
36.3%
Peyton Barber run for 5 yds to the Kent 7Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+4
36.3%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the Kent 3Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
13.3%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5015% → 45%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
14.9%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 20Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
14.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 5 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
13.6%
[SHOT], Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson, PENALTY AU pass interference 15 yards to the UK40, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
16.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Stanley WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
15.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Blake Bone for 11 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
17.5%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd to the Aub 48Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+5
17.4%
Mikel Horton run for 5 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+14
17.5%
[SHOT], Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian Baker, PENALTY AU pass interference (Blake Countess) 14 yards to the AU29, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+27
19.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 27 yds to the Aub 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
19.7%
Mikel Horton run for 1 yd to the Aub 1Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.4%
Mikel Horton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 1:4075% → 82%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
25.5%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+9
25.5%
Ricardo Louis run for 9 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
23.3%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
17.3%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+3
17.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
18.0%
Kevin Phillips punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0031% → 34%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
30.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jojo KempSimilar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-3
30.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 7 yds to the Kent 22 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Kent 12Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+14
30.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 14 yds to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+23
31.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 23 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
36.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 5 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
38.3%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
36.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff Badet, broken up by Jonathan JonesSimilar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 3
OPP 44
-2
33.8%
Patrick Towles sacked by Justin Garrett for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
5.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the Aub 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:06
Mikel Horton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+25.7
TD · Q4 7:56
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
-22.9
TD · Q3 11:49
Stanley Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com