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ALA

Alabama 41 at Texas A&M 23

TA&M
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:04 · JK Scott punt for 55 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 2 yds to the TexAM 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Home team on offense−17.9Score differential−7.9Garbage-time factor−4.0Pregame prior−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:51: Derrick Henry 6 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +9.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:28: Eddie Jackson 93 Yd Interception Return (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +6.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:51: Ricky Seals-Jones 3 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick) — TA&M win probability +13.6 pts (now 37%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:17: Adam Griffith 20 Yd Field Goal — ALA win probability +6.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:18: Minkah Fitzpatrick 55 Yd Interception Return (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +7.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 10 of 11ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 13:27TA&M 4th & 12 at TA&M 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:24ALA 4th & 13 at TA&M 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    54.6%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:28TA&M 4th & 10 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:37TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:56ALA 4th & 17 at ALA 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:14TA&M 4th & 6 at ALA 36, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.2%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:59TA&M 4th & 11 at ALA 33, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:07ALA 4th & 3 at TA&M 46, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    67.1%−3.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:59TA&M 4th & 14 at TA&M 31, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−4.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:03ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 17, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:04ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 11, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−2.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:00ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 27, up 15
    Close callPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:33TA&M 4th & 12 at TA&M 27, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:48ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 32, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:06TA&M 4th & 15 at ALA 34, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:52ALA 4th & 2 at TA&M 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    72.1%−1.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−7.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:04ALA 4th & 5 at TA&M 15, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−7.6
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:00TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  19. Q3 0:03ALA 4th & 8 at TA&M 36, up 11
    Close callPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    79.5%−0.3
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%−0.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:17ALA 4th & 3 at TA&M 3, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.9%−1.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−9.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:57TA&M 4th & 15 at ALA 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−2.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−4.9
    average punt
  22. Q4 5:50ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:34TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:53ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:26ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:51ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:28ALA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:03TA&M Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:51TA&M Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:18ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:2844% → 45%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
44.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 18 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
44.3%
Tra Carson run for 4 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
44.5%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+6
44.5%
Kyle Allen sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 10 yards to the TexAM 41 Kyle Allen fumbled, forced by Jonathan Allen, recovered by TexAM Tra Carson, return for 6 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
44.5%
Drew Kaser punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 57 yds · 4:5655% → 54%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
44.7%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+8
44.8%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
44.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 6 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+9
44.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 9 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
44.9%
Derrick Henry run for 19 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
44.7%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+8
44.8%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
44.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to Derek Kief for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+4
45.1%
Kenyan Drake run for 4 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+1
45.1%
Jake Coker run for 1 yd to the TexAM 32Similar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 8
OPP 32
-5
45.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 13
OPP 37
0
46.0%
JK Scott punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3INT TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:2746% → 43%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
45.9%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+33
43.3%
Minkah Fitzpatrick 33 Yd Interception Return (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:2243% → 43%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
43.3%
Allen, Kyle pass incomplete to Carson, Tra, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Harrison, Ronnie) 10 yards to the TEXASAM35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
43.4%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
50
+2
44.1%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Tra Carson for 2 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-2
44.1%
Tra Carson run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 10
50
0
43.4%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 10
50
0
43.0%
Drew Kaser punt for 29 yds, downed at the Alab 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 0:5357% → 62%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
42.9%
Derrick Henry run for 15 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
42.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 9 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+55
38.1%
Derrick Henry 55 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4140% → 39%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.6%
Tra Carson run for 6 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
39.8%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
39.5%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
39.3%
Drew Kaser punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:3462% → 62%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
38.2%
Kenyan Drake run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 19Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-6
37.9%
Kenyan Drake run for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 13Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 17
OWN 13
0
37.8%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Kenyan DrakeSimilar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+4
37.8%
JK Scott punt for 56 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 4 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:3438% → 40%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
37.8%
Tra Carson run for 6 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
38.5%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+19
38.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 19 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
38.5%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Kwame EtwiSimilar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
38.5%
Kwame Etwi run for 4 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
38.1%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+54
39.8%
Taylor Bertolet 54 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 1:0461% → 72%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+24
39.2%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 24 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
38.3%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+24
38.0%
Derrick Henry run for 24 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
37.6%
Derrick Henry run for 14 yds to the TexAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
28.3%
Derrick Henry 6 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 2:4332% → 34%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.5%
Tra Carson run for 1 yd to the TexAM 26Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
31.1%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+22
30.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
50
-5
31.9%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Germain Ifedi) to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+23
31.1%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 23 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
32.2%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
32.4%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 8
OPP 30
-3
31.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Tra Carson for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 33Similar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 11
OPP 33
+52
33.7%
Taylor Bertolet 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:4968% → 70%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
31.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Hale Hentges) to the Alab 20Similar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
31.8%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
31.8%
Kenyan Drake run for 3 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+13
31.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 13 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
30.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 11 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
29.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 2 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-6
29.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+11
29.8%
Kenyan Drake run for 11 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
29.9%
JK Scott punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12INT TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:3231% → 25%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
31.1%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 5 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
31.0%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+14
30.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 14 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
31.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 13 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
31.7%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
31.5%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Kwame EtwiSimilar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+10
31.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 10 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+93
25.0%
Eddie Jackson 93 Yd Interception Return (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1623% → 21%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
22.5%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Boone NiederhoferSimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
22.1%
Kyle Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 34Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-3
21.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Tra Carson for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 31Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+9
20.9%
Drew Kaser punt for 46 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 9 yds to the Alab 40 ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Shaun Hamilton) to the Alab 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4580% → 75%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
19.8%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 18Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 9
OWN 18
-6
19.5%
Jake Coker sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 12 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cam Robinson) declinedSimilar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 15
OWN 12
+5
20.3%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q2 3:03
4TH & 10
OWN 17
+68
24.9%
Christian Kirk 68 Yd Punt Return (Taylor Bertolet Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 1:4675% → 77%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
24.6%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 13Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 5
OWN 13
-5
24.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Ross Pierschbacher) to the Alab 8Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+4
24.3%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 6
OWN 12
-5
23.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Cam Robinson) to the Alab 7Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 11
OWN 7
+4
23.1%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 11Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 7
OWN 11
+2
23.1%
JK Scott punt for 55 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 2 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:0029% → 29%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
29.0%
Christian Kirk run for 11 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
30.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Christian Kirk for 6 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-5
25.8%
Kyler Murray run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 48 Kyler Murray fumbled, recovered by TexAM Kyler MurraySimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+15
28.4%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Speedy Noil for 15 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+55
29.0%
Taylor Bertolet 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5577% → 79%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
23.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 2 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+1
23.0%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 24Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+3
21.9%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 3 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+12
21.5%
JK Scott punt for 56 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 12 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1824% → 21%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
23.6%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
23.6%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-5
23.0%
Kyler Murray sacked by Ryan Anderson for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 27Similar
Q3 11:33
4TH & 12
OWN 27
+23
21.1%
Drew Kaser punt for 49 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 23 yds to the Alab 47 Cyrus Jones fumbled, forced by Sam Moeller, recovered by TexAM Donovan WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19TD
3 plays · 47 yds · 0:3724% → 37%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
23.9%
Tra Carson pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+44
23.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 44 yds to the Alab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
37.3%
Ricky Seals-Jones 3 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4869% → 68%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
30.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 9 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-2
29.7%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 32Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
30.5%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
31.8%
JK Scott punt blocked by Myles Garrett blocked by Myles GarrettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21MISSED FG
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:3437% → 30%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
37.1%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
37.0%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-5
34.7%
Kyle Allen sacked by Reggie Ragland for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 15
OPP 34
+52
30.3%
Taylor Bertolet 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 5:5671% → 77%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
28.8%
Jake Coker run for 5 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+10
27.7%
Derrick Henry run for 10 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
27.1%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
27.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 48Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+18
28.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Derrick Henry for 18 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-7
25.8%
Jake Coker run for a loss of 7 yards to the TexAM 41Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 17
OPP 41
+11
26.8%
Derrick Henry run for 11 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+4
26.2%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 4 yds to the TexAM 26Similar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+6
26.9%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
24.3%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the TexAM 12Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 2
OPP 12
-1
22.8%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 13Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 3
OPP 13
-2
23.6%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 15Similar
Q3 3:04
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
23.1%
Adam Griffith 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5623% → 20%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.7%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
23.3%
Kyle Allen sacked by Ronnie Harrison for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 25Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
20.6%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.5%
Drew Kaser punt for 44 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 3 yds to the Alab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:4378% → 80%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+28
22.2%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 28 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
19.7%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 41Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+5
19.8%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
18.1%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q3 0:03
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
19.6%
JK Scott punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
20.3%
Kyler Murray pass intercepted Eddie Jackson return for 26 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:3883% → 91%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-4
17.2%
Jake Coker run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 32Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+8
18.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 8 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+16
15.8%
Jake Coker run for 16 yds to the TexAM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
15.2%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 10Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
15.0%
Jake Coker run for 8 yds to the TexAM 2Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
15.2%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 3Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
8.6%
Adam Griffith 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 27FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:1313% → 13%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
13.0%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
12.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Tra Carson for 8 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+18
11.2%
Kyle Allen run for 18 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
12.0%
Kyle Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 46Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+7
11.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 7 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+26
10.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 26 yds to the Alab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
10.7%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
10.1%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-5
9.3%
Kyle Allen sacked by Tim Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 18Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 15
OPP 18
+36
13.2%
Taylor Bertolet 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0089% → 90%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
11.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 21 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
10.9%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Alab 21Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+6
11.3%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 6 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
9.7%
JK Scott punt for 49 yds, downed at the TexAM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 29INT TD
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:2410% → 3%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
10.4%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 19 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+55
2.6%
Minkah Fitzpatrick 55 Yd Interception Return (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 30DOWNS
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:253% → 2%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
2.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Tra Carson for 12 yds to the TexAM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-7
2.5%
Kyle Allen sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 7 yards to the TexAM 26Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 17
OWN 26
+2
2.3%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+9
2.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 9 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
2.3%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Boone NiederhoferSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 31END OF GAME
5 plays · 26 yds · 3:2698% → 99%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
1.6%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+2
1.5%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+15
1.2%
Derrick Henry run for 15 yds to the TexAM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
1.1%
Derrick Henry run for 9 yds to the TexAM 9Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 9
-2
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:51
Ricky Seals-Jones 3 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick)
+13.6
TD · Q2 14:51
Derrick Henry 6 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)
-9.3
TD · Q4 5:18
Minkah Fitzpatrick 55 Yd Interception Return (Adam Griffith Kick)
-7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com