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VAN

Vanderbilt 10 at South Carolina 19

SC
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:07 · Sean Kelly punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ryan White at the Vandy 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Home team on offense+15.6Pregame prior+1.8Garbage-time factor+9.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.6Score differential+2.0Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:21: Caleb Scott 4 Yd pass from Johnny McCrary (Tommy Openshaw Kick) — VAN win probability +13.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:04: Tommy Openshaw 23 Yd Field Goal — VAN win probability +2.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:34: Pharoh Cooper 78 Yd pass from Perry Orth (Elliott Fry Kick) — SC win probability +15.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 3:11: Elliott Fry 19 Yd Field Goal — SC win probability +7.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:35: Perry Orth pass complete to D.J. Neal for 5 yds to the SCaro 28 — SC win probability +9.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 6 of 10VAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:21SC 4th & 15 at VAN 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:43VAN 4th & 8 at SC 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:49SC 4th & 8 at VAN 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:17VAN 4th & 26 at VAN 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−1.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:52SC 4th & 10 at VAN 44, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:39VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:04SC 4th & 11 at VAN 21, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    67.2%−4.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:23SC 4th & 11 at SC 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:47VAN 4th & 4 at SC 48, up 1
    Close callPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:47SC 4th & 5 at SC 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:04VAN 4th & 2 at SC 5, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.3%−1.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−12.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:11SC 4th & 1 at VAN 1, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.0%−4.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−15.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:34VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:30VAN 4th & 8 at midfield, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:07SC 4th & 2 at midfield, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:27SC 4th & 4 at VAN 4, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.1%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    74.8%−12.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:19SC 4th & 2 at SC 37, up 9
    Close callPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:34VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 30, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.6%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 2:21VAN Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:34SC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:2738% → 38%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
62.3%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Darrius Sims for 13 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
62.3%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Steven ScheuSimilar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
62.3%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 24 Ralph Webb fumbled, recovered by SCaro T.J. Holloman , return for 11 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2FG
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:5462% → 62%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-11
62.4%
Perry Orth sacked by Zach Cunningham for a loss of 11 yards to the Vandy 35Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 21
OPP 35
+6
62.4%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 6 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 15
OPP 29
0
62.4%
Perry Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 15
OPP 29
+47
62.4%
Elliott Fry 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 2:3238% → 38%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
62.5%
Darrius Sims run for 10 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
62.4%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Darrius Sims for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+10
62.5%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Darrius Sims for 10 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+6
62.3%
Darrius Sims run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
50
+7
62.1%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 7 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
62.0%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-5
62.1%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Blake Fromang) to the SCaro 48Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
62.2%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
62.5%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Pharoh Cooper at the SCaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4FG
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:4663% → 64%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
62.5%
Brandon Wilds run for no gain to the SCaro 13Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+28
62.5%
Perry Orth pass complete to D.J. Neal for 28 yds to the SCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
62.9%
Brandon Wilds run for 6 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
63.1%
Brandon Wilds run for no gain to the SCaro 47Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+24
62.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 24 yds to the Vandy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
63.3%
Brandon Wilds run for 6 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+8
63.4%
Perry Orth pass complete to D.J. Neal for 8 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
63.6%
Brandon Wilds run for 3 yds to the Vandy 12Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-1
63.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 13 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SCaroSimilar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
63.3%
Perry Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
64.4%
Elliott Fry 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 8 yds · 4:1735% → 34%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
64.6%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+13
64.7%
Johnny McCrary run for 13 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
64.4%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
64.1%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 43Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
64.3%
Johnny McCrary run for 5 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
64.2%
Johnny McCrary run for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 44 Johnny McCrary fumbled, recovered by Vandy Johnny McCrarySimilar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+1
65.2%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Chandler Dorrell for 1 yd to the Vandy 45Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 13
OWN 45
-13
65.6%
Johnny McCrary sacked by Darius English for a loss of 13 yards to the Vandy 32 Johnny McCrary fumbled, recovered by Vandy Ralph Webb , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 26
OWN 32
0
66.4%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Pharoh Cooper at the SCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:1766% → 66%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+23
65.6%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 23 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
66.6%
Brandon Wilds run for 5 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+5
66.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 5 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
66.9%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Pharoh Cooper) to the Vandy 49Similar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 15
OPP 49
0
66.4%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Matrick BeltonSimilar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+3
66.4%
Brandon Wilds run for 3 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+2
66.1%
Perry Orth pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 2 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
65.5%
Sean Kelly punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:0634% → 32%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
66.5%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 3Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
66.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+10
67.4%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 10 yds to the Vandy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
66.6%
Johnny McCrary sacked by Marquavius Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 12Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+12
66.9%
Johnny McCrary run for 12 yds to the Vandy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
66.7%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+3
66.4%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 3 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
66.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Steven ScheuSimilar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+4
67.6%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 42 yds , Pharoh Cooper returns for 4 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8MISSED FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:2667% → 68%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+25
67.4%
Perry Orth pass complete to Jerell Adams for 25 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
68.8%
David Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 46Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+15
68.4%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 15 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
69.2%
Brandon Wilds run for 11 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
69.3%
Perry Orth run for no gain to the Vandy 20Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-1
69.6%
Perry Orth run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 21Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 11
OPP 21
0
69.0%
Perry Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+39
67.5%
Elliott Fry 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9TD
15 plays · 79 yds · 6:3432% → 48%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
67.9%
Johnny McCrary run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 20Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+12
68.3%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 12 yds to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-11
67.9%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Holding (-11 Yards) to the Vandy 21Similar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 21
OWN 21
+29
68.9%
Darrius Sims run for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
50
+16
66.4%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Caleb Scott for 16 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
65.4%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Steven ScheuSimilar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+14
65.5%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Ralph Webb for 14 yds to the SCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
65.2%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+10
65.5%
Johnny McCrary run for 10 yds to the SCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
65.2%
Johnny McCrary run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 12Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
65.7%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the SCaro 7Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
66.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Kris Kentera for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (T.J. Holloman) to the SCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
65.4%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the SCaro 2Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
65.5%
Dallas Rivers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 4Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
52.3%
Caleb Scott 4 Yd pass from Johnny McCrary (Tommy Openshaw Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4258% → 55%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
57.6%
Perry Orth sacked by Adam Butler for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 30Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
56.8%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Jerell AdamsSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
55.5%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Matrick BeltonSimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
54.8%
Sean Kelly punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ryan White at the Vandy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:3046% → 47%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
54.1%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 11 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
52.3%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Dallas RiversSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
52.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+6
53.8%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Ronald Monroe for 6 yds to the SCaro 48Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
53.3%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Pharoh Cooper at the SCaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 45 yds · 0:3957% → 57%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
56.5%
David Williams run for 18 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
57.5%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Mason Zandi) to the SCaro 31Similar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+24
56.1%
Brandon Wilds run for 24 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
60.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
59.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 8 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+55
56.5%
Elliott Fry 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0857% → 55%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
57.0%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 14Similar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+3
56.8%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the SCaro 17Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 12
OWN 17
0
56.6%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Pharoh CooperSimilar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+7
55.3%
Perry Orth pass complete to Jerell Adams for 7 yds to the SCaro 24Similar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
54.8%
Sean Kelly punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Ryan White at the Vandy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14FG
10 plays · 73 yds · 5:2646% → 53%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+41
54.4%
Darrius Sims run for 41 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
51.3%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+8
50.0%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 8 yds to the SCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
50.0%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the SCaro 19Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-11
49.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the SCaro 30 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Vandy Johnny McCrarySimilar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 17
OPP 30
+17
53.3%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 17 yds to the SCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
49.3%
Johnny McCrary run for 3 yds to the SCaro 10Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
49.2%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the SCaro 5Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
50.5%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the SCaro 5Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+23
47.5%
Tommy Openshaw 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 1:1650% → 65%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
49.9%
Brandon Wilds run for 6 yds to the SCaro 23Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 4
OWN 23
-1
48.9%
Brandon Wilds run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 22Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+78
64.5%
Pharoh Cooper 78 Yd pass from Perry Orth (Elliott Fry Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:2236% → 38%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.2%
Darrius Sims run for 7 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
62.0%
Johnny McCrary pass intercepted Bryson Allen-Williams return for no gain to the Vandy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:4470% → 78%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
69.7%
David Williams run for 4 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+13
69.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Terry Googer for 13 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
70.7%
David Williams run for 11 yds to the Vandy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
70.5%
Brandon Wilds run for 15 yds to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
72.3%
Brandon Wilds run for no gain to the Vandy 2Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
72.4%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to D.J. NealSimilar
Q3 3:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
70.9%
Brandon Wilds run for 1 yd to the Vandy 1Similar
Q3 3:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
78.1%
Elliott Fry 19 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3125% → 23%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.8%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 26Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
75.0%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
75.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q3 1:34
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
77.0%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Pharoh Cooper at the SCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 23 yds · 1:1079% → 81%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
79.4%
Perry Orth pass complete to D.J. Neal for 8 yds to the SCaro 37Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+1
80.8%
David Williams run for 1 yd to the SCaro 38Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+14
80.5%
David Williams run for 14 yds to the Vandy 48 David Williams fumbled, recovered by Vandy Stephen WeatherlySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3928% → 24%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-15
72.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Clipping (Will Holden) to the Vandy 33Similar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 25
OWN 33
0
75.7%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Latevius RayfordSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 25
OWN 33
+5
76.0%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 5 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 20
OWN 38
+12
76.3%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 8
50
0
76.2%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Pharoh Cooper at the SCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:3380% → 82%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
80.2%
Brandon Wilds run for 3 yds to the SCaro 18Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
81.6%
Perry Orth pass intercepted Jahmel McIntosh return for no gain to the SCaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
72.1%
Johnny McCrary pass intercepted Chris Lammons return for no gain to the SCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:2882% → 86%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
81.9%
Perry Orth pass complete to D.J. Neal for 5 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+14
84.1%
Brandon Wilds run for 14 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
85.6%
Brandon Wilds run for 1 yd to the SCaro 43Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-5
86.4%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (Perry Orth) to the SCaro 38Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+4
85.8%
Brandon Wilds run for 4 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+8
85.7%
Perry Orth pass complete to David Williams for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:07
4TH & 2
50
0
86.4%
Sean Kelly punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ryan White at the Vandy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24INT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:2319% → 16%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
81.5%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+11
81.5%
Darrius Sims run for 11 yds to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
81.4%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Bernstein) to the Vandy 16Similar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 20
OWN 16
-8
82.1%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Nathan Marcus) to the Vandy 8Similar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 28
OWN 8
+1
83.0%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 9Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 27
OWN 9
+11
83.6%
Johnny McCrary pass intercepted Skai Moore return for 11 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 25FG
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:5590% → 92%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
90.2%
Brandon Wilds run for 8 yds to the Vandy 8 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (4 Yards) to the Vandy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
90.6%
Brandon Wilds run for no gain to the Vandy 4Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
90.8%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Jerell AdamsSimilar
Q4 5:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
90.5%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Pharoh CooperSimilar
Q4 5:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
92.4%
Elliott Fry 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26FUMBLE
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:269% → 10%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
90.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
91.1%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Ralph Webb for 9 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+21
90.5%
Ralph Webb run for 21 yds to the SCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
89.5%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 6 yds to the SCaro 24Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+7
89.4%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 7 yds to the SCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
89.5%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-16
89.7%
Johnny McCrary sacked by Skai Moore for a loss of 16 yards to the SCaro 33 Johnny McCrary fumbled, forced by Skai Moore, recovered by SCaro Skai Moore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 2:2693% → 96%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
92.7%
Brandon Wilds run for 2 yds to the SCaro 20Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+9
93.5%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 9 yds to the SCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
94.5%
Brandon Wilds run for 2 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+6
94.7%
Brandon Wilds run for 6 yds to the SCaro 37Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
95.7%
Brandon Wilds run for no gain to the SCaro 37Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+2
95.8%
Sean Kelly punt for 42 yds , Ryan White returns for 2 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 28DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:413% → 3%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
96.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
96.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+7
97.0%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 7 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
97.1%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Steven ScheuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:34
Pharoh Cooper 78 Yd pass from Perry Orth (Elliott Fry Kick)
+15.6
TD · Q2 2:21
Caleb Scott 4 Yd pass from Johnny McCrary (Tommy Openshaw Kick)
-13.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:35
Perry Orth pass complete to D.J. Neal for 5 yds to the SCaro 28
+9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com