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LT

Louisiana Tech 20 at Mississippi State 45

MSST
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:03 · Logan Cooke punt for 49 yds , Trent Taylor returns for 1 yd to the LaTch 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 179Pregame prior+3.1Home team on offense+34.7Score differential+20.4Garbage-time factor+15.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.3Blowout margin+12.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 7:23: Jonathan Barnes 33 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +6.7 pts (now 29%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:53: Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 5 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +7.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:57: Dak Prescott run for 2 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +9.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:55: Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 20 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +5.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:30: Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 12 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +6.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:27MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:30LT 4th & 1 at LT 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00MSST 4th & 5 at LT 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    76.1%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:33MSST 4th & 6 at LT 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−4.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:27LT 4th & 1 at MSST 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−1.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:23LT 4th & 15 at MSST 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:44LT 4th & 1 at LT 23, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00LT 4th & 3 at LT 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:44LT 4th & 6 at MSST 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−5.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00LT 4th & 1 at LT 39, down 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:44MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 38, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:00LT 4th & 8 at LT 31, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:03MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 35, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:52LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:27LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:30MSST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:53MSST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:57MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:55MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:30MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:10MSST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-7
87.7%
Team run for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 25 Team fumbled, forced by Bryson Abraham, recovered by MisSt Dak PrescottSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
87.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 17 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
87.7%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
87.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 3 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
87.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
87.7%
Logan Cooke punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:1513% → 15%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
87.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Jarred Craft for 17 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
87.2%
Jeff Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
87.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Jarred Craft for 11 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
87.1%
Jeff Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
87.1%
Jeff Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+13
87.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 13 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
87.1%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 18 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
85.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Paul Turner for 21 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
85.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
85.6%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
85.7%
Brandon Holloway run for 1 yd to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+4
85.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 4 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
85.6%
Logan Cooke punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:5116% → 21%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
84.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 6 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+7
84.1%
Jarred Craft run for 7 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
84.0%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
84.0%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Paul TurnerSimilar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+19
84.1%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Jarred Craft for 19 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
84.0%
Jarred Craft run for 9 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+2
83.9%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
83.9%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 9 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+3
83.9%
Boston Scott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
78.7%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 16 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 1:4980% → 82%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
79.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 6 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+6
79.9%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
79.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 19 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
80.4%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+27
80.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 27 yds to the LaTch 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
80.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 18 yds to the LaTch 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.9%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
80.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Marlon Watts for 15 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
79.9%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Jarred Craft for 2 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
79.9%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Trent Taylor, broken up by Taveze CalhounSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+7
80.2%
Jeff Driskel run for 7 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
80.3%
Logan McPherson punt for 24 yds, downed at the MisSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7FG
15 plays · 65 yds · 3:5179% → 80%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
79.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 12 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
79.5%
Dontavian Lee run for 8 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
79.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malik Dear, broken up by C.J. ClevelandSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
79.7%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+15
79.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 15 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
80.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Aeris Williams for 5 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
80.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Dezmond HarrisSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
79.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malik Dear, broken up by Lloyd GroganSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+6
79.3%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the LaTch 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
80.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete, broken up by Xavier WoodsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+12
80.4%
Brandon Holloway run for 12 yds to the LaTch 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
80.4%
Brandon Holloway run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+7
80.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 7 yds to the LaTch 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
79.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete, broken up by Nick ThomasonSimilar
Q2 11:33
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
79.7%
Westin Graves 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:0421% → 29%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+31
78.7%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 31 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
77.7%
Jarred Craft run for 8 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
77.2%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+1
77.7%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 1 yd to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+25
78.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Ricky Jones for 25 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
77.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Paul Turner for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
77.2%
Jeff Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
77.9%
Jeff Driskel sacked by Ryan Brown and Chris Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 15Similar
Q2 7:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
71.1%
Jonathan Barnes 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 4:2571% → 80%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
71.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 12 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
71.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 9 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+5
72.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 5 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
72.8%
Brandon Holloway run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+11
72.0%
Dak Prescott run for 11 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
73.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 1 yd to the LaTch 48Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+15
73.4%
Dak Prescott run for 15 yds to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
74.5%
Brandon Holloway run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jaylon Ferguson) to the LaTch 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
74.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-3
74.5%
Brandon Holloway run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 24Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 13
OPP 24
+19
72.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 19 yds to the LaTch 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
80.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 5 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
75.1%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the LaTch 14Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+9
75.3%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Marlon Watts for 9 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 1
OWN 23
0
75.3%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Trent Taylor, broken up by Taveze CalhounSimilar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
76.3%
Gerald Shouse punt blocked by Donald Gray blocked by Donald GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.8%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · -3 yds · 0:1716% → 16%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
83.7%
DRISKEL, Jeff pass complete to WATTS, Marlon for no gain to the LATECH11 (Will Redmond), PENALTY LATECH holding (BROWN, Darrell) 5 yards to the LATECH6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+1
83.5%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the LaTch 7Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 14
OWN 7
+3
83.7%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the LaTch 10Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 11
OWN 10
-2
83.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
83.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Marlon Seets for 11 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
82.9%
Jeff Driskel sacked by Chris Jones and Richie Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
83.6%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the LaTch 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+11
84.3%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Paul Turner for 11 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
83.5%
Gerald Shouse punt for 55 yds, downed at the MisSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
12 plays · 98 yds · 3:3183% → 92%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+11
83.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 11 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
83.5%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+4
83.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 4 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+13
82.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 13 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
83.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 6 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
84.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+6
84.2%
Brandon Holloway run for 6 yds to the MisSt 47 Brandon Holloway fumbled, forced by Nick Thomason, recovered by MisSt Darrion Hutcherson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+45
86.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 45 yds to the LaTch 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
86.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya Wilson, broken up by Bryson AbrahamSimilar
Q3 10:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-12
86.8%
Dak Prescott sacked by Vontarrius Dora for a loss of 12 yards to the LaTch 20Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+20
92.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 20 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:119% → 11%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
91.4%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kameron McKnight for 16 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
90.8%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 13 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
90.3%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 6 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+9
90.1%
Jeff Driskel run for 9 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
89.8%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Jarred CraftSimilar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
89.8%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
90.4%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+15
91.2%
BARNES,Jonathan field goal attempt from 46 MISSED - short,, clock 05:37, PENALTY MS roughing the kicker (Will Redmond) 15 yards to the MS14, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
89.7%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Paul Turner, broken up by Will RedmondSimilar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
89.7%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
90.4%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
89.0%
Jonathan Barnes 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1490% → 97%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
90.1%
Dak Prescott sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 21Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-1
89.9%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
89.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+15
89.0%
Logan Cooke punt 35 yards to the LATECH45, downed, PENALTY LATECH roughing the kicker (TURNER, Paul) 15 yards to the MS35, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
90.2%
Dak Prescott run for 12 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
90.8%
Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 7
50
+10
90.8%
Dontavian Lee run for 10 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
90.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Dontavian Lee for 11 yds to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
90.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 17 yds to the LaTch 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
90.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya Wilson, broken up by Beau FitteSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
97.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 12 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:244% → 4%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
95.7%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the LaTch 22Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+8
95.8%
DRISKEL, Jeff pass incomplete to GAINES, Marcus, PENALTY MS pass interference (Cedric Jiles) 8 yards to the LATECH30, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
95.6%
Jeff Driskel run for 4 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-5
96.0%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+10
96.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Paul Turner for 10 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
96.0%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the LaTch 39Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
96.0%
Gerald Shouse punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
97.7%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+5
97.7%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
97.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 5 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
97.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Aeris Williams for no gain to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
97.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
97.6%
Logan Cooke punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19INT TD
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:173% → 0%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
97.3%
DRISKEL, Jeff pass incomplete to SEETS, Marlon (Ryan Brown), PENALTY MS substitution infraction 5 yards to the LATECH14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 5
OWN 14
+4
97.2%
Boston Scott run for 4 yds to the LaTch 18Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+4
97.0%
Boston Scott run for 4 yds to the LaTch 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
97.2%
Jeff Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
97.2%
Jeff Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+17
97.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 17 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
97.0%
Boston Scott run for 9 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+8
96.8%
Boston Scott run for 8 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
96.9%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 15
OPP 49
-1
97.0%
Jeff Driskel run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 16
50
0
97.1%
Jeff Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 16
50
+73
99.6%
Jeff Driskel pass intercepted for a TD Brandon Bryant return for 73 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
99.7%
Boston Scott run for 9 yds to the LaTch 18Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+11
99.7%
Boston Scott run for 11 yds to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Ricky Jones for no gain to the LaTch 29Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Jeff Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 29
-5
99.7%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 24Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+7
99.7%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Jarred Craft for 7 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+7
99.7%
Gerald Shouse punt for 48 yds , Malik Dear returns for 7 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.8%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+3
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+1
99.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 49 yds , Trent Taylor returns for 1 yd to the LaTch 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
99.8%
Boston Scott run for 3 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+3
99.8%
Boston Scott run for 3 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+7
99.8%
Ryan Higgins run for 7 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.8%
Boston Scott run for 1 yd to the LaTch 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:57
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
+9.5
TD · Q2 2:53
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 5 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
+7.6
FG · Q2 7:23
Jonathan Barnes 33 yd FG GOOD
-6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com