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MISS

Ole Miss 24 at Memphis 37

MEM
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:52: Sam Craft run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +8.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:34: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +12.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:31: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 31 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +15.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:59: Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 6 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +17.5 pts (now 39%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 0:16: Gary Wunderlich 24 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +7.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:17MEM 4th & 10 at MISS 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    26.2%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:05MEM 4th & 22 at MEM 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−1.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:36MISS 4th & 22 at MISS 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−1.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:55MISS 4th & 1 at MEM 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.6%−1.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:34MISS 4th & 30 at MISS 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−2.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:49MEM 4th & 5 at MISS 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−6.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:56MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.6%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:50MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:03MEM 4th & 18 at MEM 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−5.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:00MEM 4th & 6 at MISS 47, up 10
    Close callPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:16MISS 4th & 3 at MEM 7, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.5%−1.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−13.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:49MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:32MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:44MEM 4th & 9 at MISS 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−10.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:52MISS 4th & 11 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:55MEM 4th & 9 at MISS 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:40MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:44MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:12MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:52MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:34MEM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:31MEM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:59MISS Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:0978% → 78%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+68
22.3%
Laquon Treadwell pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 68 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 1:5822% → 23%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
22.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 10 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
22.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
22.6%
Sam Craft run for 8 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+15
22.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
22.7%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the Miss 38Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-5
22.7%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (-5 Yards) to the Miss 43Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 14
OPP 43
-3
22.9%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Mike Hilton for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 46Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 17
OPP 46
+7
22.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jae'lon Oglesby for 7 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
22.8%
Nick Jacobs punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Collins Moore at the Miss 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 2:2277% → 78%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
22.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 11 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
22.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 16Similar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 15
OWN 16
0
23.0%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the Miss 16Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+15
23.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 15 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+26
23.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 26 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
22.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 10 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
22.9%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+8
23.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 8 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
21.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 23 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:2222% → 22%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
22.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 21 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-8
22.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 2 yds to the Memph 42 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 18
OWN 48
+3
22.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 3 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 15
OPP 49
0
22.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 15
OPP 49
-7
22.0%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Fadol Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 22
OWN 44
0
21.9%
Spencer Smith punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:2679% → 79%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
21.5%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
21.5%
Chad Kelly run for 6 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+1
21.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Taz Zettergren for 1 yd to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+15
21.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Running Into Kicker (15 Yards) to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
21.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Laquon Treadwell) to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 15
OWN 41
0
21.1%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 15
OWN 41
-5
21.1%
Chad Kelly run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 36Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 20
OWN 36
-2
21.3%
Ben Still run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 22
OWN 34
+5
21.5%
Will Gleeson punt for 41 yds , Roderick Proctor returns for 5 yds to the Memph 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:1922% → 26%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
21.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Ineligible receiver downfield (-5 Yards) to the Memph 25Similar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
21.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+6
21.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 6 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+26
21.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jarvis Cooper for 11 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
22.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 8 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+3
22.7%
Jarvis Cooper run for 3 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
22.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 7 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+5
22.7%
Jarvis Cooper run for 5 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
22.1%
Paxton Lynch run for 6 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+13
22.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for 13 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7DOWNS
16 plays · 59 yds · 5:0576% → 75%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
24.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 10 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
24.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 11 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
23.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 5 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
23.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
23.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
23.7%
Chad Kelly run for 5 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+5
23.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for 5 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-15
23.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Laquon Treadwell) to the Memph 48Similar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 25
OPP 48
0
24.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for no gain to the Memph 48Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 25
OPP 48
+18
24.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 18 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+11
24.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 11 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
23.7%
Chad Kelly run for 8 yds to the Memph 11Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+1
23.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Memph 10Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
24.1%
Robert Nkemdiche run for no gain to the Memph 10Similar
Q2 11:55
4TH & 1
OPP 10
-6
24.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8INT
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:2226% → 28%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
25.6%
Jarvis Cooper run for 3 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 19
-4
25.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jae'lon Oglesby for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 15Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 11
OWN 15
-5
25.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Anthony Miller) to the Memph 10Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 16
OWN 10
+36
25.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 36 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
27.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
26.4%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+13
26.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 13 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
27.9%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+2
28.0%
Paxton Lynch pass intercepted Mike Hilton return for 2 yds to the Miss 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -20 yds · 1:4675% → 74%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
25.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Justin Bell) to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 20
OWN 25
0
24.9%
Chad Kelly run for no gain to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 20
OWN 25
0
25.1%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 20
OWN 25
-10
25.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Fahn Cooper) to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 30
OWN 15
0
25.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for no gain to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 6:34
4TH & 30
OWN 15
+15
26.3%
Will Gleeson punt for 40 yds , Roderick Proctor returns for 15 yds to the Miss 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10FG
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:1828% → 32%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
27.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 13 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
28.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 1 yd to the Miss 26Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+18
28.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 18 yds to the Miss 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
28.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
29.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Miss 6Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
28.1%
Paxton Lynch run for 1 yd to the Miss 5Similar
Q2 3:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
31.8%
Jake Elliott 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
30.2%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted by Dion Witty at Miss 46, return for 16 yds to the Miss 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 0:3435% → 44%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
34.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+15
34.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
34.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 13 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
43.7%
Sam Craft run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5260% → 59%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
40.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 9 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
39.7%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
41.4%
Chad Kelly run for no gain to the Miss 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:5745% → 58%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
45.1%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
45.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 8
OPP 32
-5
44.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 5 yds to the Miss 27 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 13
OPP 37
+14
42.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 14 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
45.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 17 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
58.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:2546% → 46%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+13
54.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 13 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
54.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 15 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-11
53.8%
Chad Kelly sacked by DeMarco Montgomery for a loss of 11 yards to the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 2:5957% → 77%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
56.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 7 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+9
58.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 9 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
57.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+11
57.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 11 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
62.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 11 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
62.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
62.6%
Sam Craft run for 3 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+8
62.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 8 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
77.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 31 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:1825% → 24%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
74.9%
Jaylen Walton run for 5 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
74.5%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
75.3%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
76.0%
Will Gleeson punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:1880% → 82%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
79.6%
Jarvis Cooper run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 14Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+7
80.3%
Tevin Jones run for 7 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+8
81.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 8 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-19
82.5%
Jae'lon Oglesby run for a loss of 19 yards to the Memph 10Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 29
OWN 10
+11
83.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 11 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 18
OWN 21
0
83.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 18
OWN 21
0
82.2%
Spencer Smith punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Collins Moore at the Miss 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 0:5221% → 39%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+26
79.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 26 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
78.1%
Jaylen Walton run for 7 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+8
78.6%
Jaylen Walton run for 8 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+21
78.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 21 yds to the Memph 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
61.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 6 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:5468% → 71%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
68.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 13 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
70.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 2 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-1
71.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 39Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+10
69.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 10 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
73.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 7 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-3
73.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 47Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
72.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
71.3%
Spencer Smith punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Collins Moore at the Miss 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21FG
12 plays · 77 yds · 3:3429% → 35%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
71.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 9 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+16
70.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 16 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
69.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
70.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 4 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+9
70.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 9 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
69.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Taz Zettergren for 12 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
68.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 10 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
67.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 10 yds to the Memph 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
68.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 8 yds to the Memph 6Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 2
OPP 6
-1
68.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 7Similar
Q3 0:21
3RD & 3
OPP 7
0
73.0%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q3 0:16
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+24
65.3%
Gary Wunderlich 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1276% → 76%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jae'lon Oglesby for 9 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
77.5%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 33Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
76.7%
Paxton Lynch run for no gain to the Memph 33Similar
Q4 13:49
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
75.8%
Spencer Smith punt for 49 yds , Collins Moore returns for no gain to the Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0328% → 24%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
72.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 2 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+4
73.1%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
74.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
75.7%
Will Gleeson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Roderick Proctor at the Memph 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:4481% → 83%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
81.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+21
80.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 21 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
82.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
82.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+8
82.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 8 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
84.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jae'lon Oglesby for 2 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+4
84.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
83.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 4
OPP 19
-5
81.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
82.5%
Jake Elliott 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:4414% → 13%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
85.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 26 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
82.3%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 11
50
0
83.1%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 11
50
0
84.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 11
50
0
86.7%
Will Gleeson punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Roderick Proctor at the Memph 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26FG
20 plays · 70 yds · 7:3387% → 99%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
86.7%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 16Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+7
86.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 7 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+10
86.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 10 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
88.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
50
+2
90.3%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+6
90.7%
Jarvis Cooper run for 6 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+5
90.7%
Jarvis Cooper run for 5 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+9
93.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for 9 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
93.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 5 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+2
94.6%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+8
94.6%
Sam Craft run for 8 yds to the Miss 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
95.7%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Daniel Montiel) to the Miss 13Similar
Q4 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+2
95.7%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the Miss 11Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-5
96.4%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Sam Craft) to the Miss 16Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+4
96.3%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q4 0:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
98.6%
Jake Elliott 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27INT
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:422% → 2%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.5%
Chad Kelly sacked by Christian Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+13
98.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 13 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+21
98.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 21 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
98.3%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+12
98.4%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted Arthur Maulet return for 12 yds to the Memph 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:59
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 6 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
-17.5
TD · Q3 11:31
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 31 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+15
TD · Q2 0:34
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com