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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreMIZ score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:40 · Andrew Baggett 20 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q3 0:33: Marshall Morgan 24 Yd Field Goal — UGA win probability +6.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 5:36: Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley Leftwich — MIZ win probability +9.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- FG · Q4 1:44: Marshall Morgan 34 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +27.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:26: Ish Witter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 15 — MIZ win probability +9.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:30: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 11 — UGA win probability +12.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10MIZ made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 12:40MIZ 4th & 2 at UGA 2, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 13.9% before the snapGo for it14.0%48% to convertField goalTheir call13.9%−0.194% to makePunt13.4%−0.6average punt
- Q1 8:01UGA 4th & 13 at MIZ 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snapGo for it84.1%−0.121% to convertField goal84.1%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call84.1%average punt
- Q1 7:05MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 22, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snapGo for it15.8%−<0.156% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.8%average punt
- Q1 3:59UGA 4th & 1 at MIZ 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.8%70% to convertField goal82.2%−0.625% to makePunt82.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 1:31MIZ 4th & 8 at UGA 19, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.8% before the snapGo for it18.6%−0.232% to convertField goalTheir call18.8%77% to makePunt17.3%−1.5average punt
- Q2 8:53UGA 4th & 1 at MIZ 12, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 78.0% before the snapGo for it77.8%71% to convertField goalTheir call76.6%−1.286% to makePunt72.9%−4.9average punt
- Q2 7:29MIZ 4th & 10 at UGA 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snapGo for it22.4%−0.230% to convertField goal22.0%−0.627% to makePuntTheir call22.6%average punt
- Q2 5:18UGA 4th & 8 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snapGo for it77.4%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.4%average punt
- Q2 0:07MIZ 4th & 6 at UGA 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snapGo for it28.1%−0.431% to convertField goalTheir call28.5%91% to makePunt24.5%−4.0average punt
- Q3 13:24MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 26, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 30.8% before the snapGo for it32.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.2%−2.0average punt
- Q3 11:25UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 37, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snapGo for it66.0%−0.640% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.6%average punt
- Q3 10:15MIZ 4th & 9 at MIZ 25, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snapGo for it31.6%−1.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.5%average punt
- Q3 7:51UGA 4th & 2 at MIZ 43, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 66.2% before the snapGo for it67.0%57% to convertField goal63.4%−3.728% to makePuntTheir call64.6%−2.4average punt
- Q3 6:45MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snapGo for it37.0%−0.840% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.9%average punt
- Q3 4:44UGA 4th & 23 at UGA 17, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snapGo for it54.0%−6.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.2%average punt
- Q3 0:33UGA 4th & 7 at MIZ 7, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.8% before the snapGo for it57.6%−1.028% to convertField goalTheir call58.6%91% to makePunt45.3%−13.3average punt
- Q4 12:16MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snapGo for it36.0%−2.739% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.7%average punt
- Q4 5:40UGA 4th & 3 at MIZ 8, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 4.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 63.4% before the snapGo for it63.6%47% to convertField goalTheir call59.6%−4.090% to makePunt38.3%−25.2average punt
- Q4 4:28MIZ 4th & 11 at MIZ 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snapGo for it34.7%−6.625% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.3%average punt
- Q4 1:44UGA 4th & 3 at MIZ 17, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snapGo for it58.7%51% to convertField goalTheir call55.7%−3.080% to makePunt26.4%−32.3average punt
- Q4 0:57MIZ 4th & 17 at MIZ 10, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.2%13% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.8%−0.4average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+39
86.4%
Greyson Lambert pass intercepted Ian Simon return for 39 yds to the Geo 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2FG4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2414% → 14%
Q1 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
86.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 3 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MissoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3PUNT12 plays · 35 yds · 4:2986% → 84%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
85.7%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Terry Godwin for 12 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+12
85.3%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Terry Godwin for 12 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
85.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Keith Marshall for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
83.8%
Collin Barber punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Cam Hilton at the Misso 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4216% → 16%
UGADrive 5DOWNS7 plays · 33 yds · 2:5584% → 83%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
83.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Reggie Davis for 6 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+16
82.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 16 yds to the Geo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
83.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Brendan Douglas for 7 yds to the Misso 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6MISSED FG6 plays · 36 yds · 2:0918% → 19%
UGADrive 7FG16 plays · 68 yds · 7:2781% → 80%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
80.3%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Sony Michel for 9 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
80.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Shakenneth Williams for 10 yds to the Misso 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+8
80.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 8 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
80.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Terry Godwin for 5 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
79.9%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Sony Michel for 5 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+8
78.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Brendan Douglas for 8 yds to the Misso 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5124% → 23%
UGADrive 9PUNT6 plays · 37 yds · 1:5979% → 78%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+35
78.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Terry Godwin for 35 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-2
79.2%
Greyson Lambert sacked by Terry Beckner Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 8
50
0
77.5%
Collin Barber punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cam Hilton at the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10FG14 plays · 84 yds · 4:5325% → 32%
Q2 3:30
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+24
75.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 24 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+14
71.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ish Witter for 14 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+29
69.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Cam Hilton for 29 yds to the Geo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1832% → 31%
Q3 13:24
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+5
68.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 57 yds , Reggie Davis returns for 5 yds to the Geo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4568% → 66%
Q3 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
67.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Terry Godwin for 4 yds to the Geo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0234% → 33%
UGADrive 15PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5869% → 66%
Q3 8:39
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+8
65.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 8 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+2
67.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Sony Michel for 2 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
65.6%
Collin Barber punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cam Hilton at the Misso 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 1:0238% → 37%
UGADrive 17FUMBLE4 plays · -13 yds · 1:4163% → 58%
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-3
62.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Sony Michel for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 27Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 13
OWN 27
-10
59.6%
Greyson Lambert sacked by Charles Harris for a loss of 10 yards to the Geo 17Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 23
OWN 17
0
57.5%
Collin Barber punt for 40 yds , Cam Hilton returns for no gain to the Misso 43 Cam Hilton fumbled, recovered by GeoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18DOWNS9 plays · 36 yds · 4:0265% → 62%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
66.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Jeb Blazevich for 8 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 2
OPP 23
-2
65.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 25Similar
Q3 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
64.9%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19FG1 play · 0 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 2:4436% → 37%
Q4 14:49
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+18
63.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 18 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-1
62.1%
Drew Lock sacked by Davin Bellamy for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 27Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+19
63.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 44 yds , Terry Godwin returns for 19 yds to the Geo 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21MISSED FG13 plays · 49 yds · 6:2368% → 62%
MIZDrive 22PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0847% → 43%
UGADrive 23FG9 plays · 33 yds · 2:2865% → 87%
MIZDrive 24DOWNS5 plays · -7 yds · 0:2924% → 19%
Q4 1:05
3RD & 12
OWN 15
-5
79.3%
Drew Lock sacked by Leonard Floyd for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 10 MISSOURI Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:44
Marshall Morgan 34 yd FG GOOD
+27.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:30
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 11
+12.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:26
Ish Witter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 15
-9.5