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MIZ

Missouri 3 at Vanderbilt 10

VAN
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:25 · Corey Fatony punt for 53 yds , Ryan White returns for 13 yds to the Vandy 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore differentialBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Home team on offense+3.7Garbage-time factor+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Pregame prior−1.3Score differential+0.6Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:27: Ralph Webb 1 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick) — VAN win probability +5.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:49: Andrew Baggett 35 Yd Field Goal — MIZ win probability +6.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:34: Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Leftwich, Wesley, PENALTY VANDERBILT pass interference (McGaster, Torren) 14 yards to the VANDERBILT33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI. — MIZ win probability +7.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:40: Timeout MISSOURI, clock 00:40 — VAN win probability +6.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 9:12: Tommy Openshaw 40 Yd Field Goal — VAN win probability +10.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10MIZ made the numbers' call on 9 of 14
  1. Q1 12:22MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:43VAN 4th & 12 at VAN 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:25MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:29VAN 4th & 6 at MIZ 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    48.2%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:29MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:10VAN 4th & 19 at VAN 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:11MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:43MIZ 4th & 11 at MIZ 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:35VAN 4th & 1 at MIZ 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−2.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    59.3%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:21MIZ 4th & 5 at VAN 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:49MIZ 4th & 7 at VAN 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−1.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−6.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:12VAN 4th & 3 at MIZ 40, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−2.0
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:25MIZ 4th & 9 at MIZ 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:11VAN 4th & 10 at MIZ 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    61.3%−2.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:00MIZ 4th & 13 at MIZ 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−2.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:39VAN 4th & 10 at MIZ 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:39MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 27, down 4
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.3%
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:26MIZ 4th & 6 at VAN 29, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−8.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:12VAN 4th & 18 at MIZ 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−6.3
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−15.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:56MIZ 4th & 13 at VAN 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    13.3%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:25VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 26, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−1.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:58VAN 4th & 12 at MIZ 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−4.2
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:31MIZ 4th & 9 at VAN 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%−2.0
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−3.7
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:05MIZ 4th & 10 at VAN 13, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 11.0 ptsWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.5%−11.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    22.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−14.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 11:27VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0853% → 52%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
47.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 13 yds to the Misso 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
47.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 8 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 2
OWN 32
-1
47.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 31Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+1
47.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Misso 32Similar
Q1 12:22
4TH & 2
OWN 32
+4
47.6%
Corey Fatony punt for 48 yds , Ryan White returns for 4 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0748% → 48%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
47.7%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 24Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-2
47.7%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 22Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 12
OWN 22
0
47.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Latevius RayfordSimilar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 12
OWN 22
0
47.5%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 78 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0752% → 52%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
47.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
47.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 6 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
48.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+13
48.4%
Corey Fatony punt for 61 yds , Ryan White returns for 13 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:5248% → 49%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
48.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
48.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Darrius Sims for 5 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+9
48.0%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
48.8%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+9
49.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Steven Scheu for 9 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
49.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 2 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+2
49.7%
Darrius Sims run for 2 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
49.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
49.0%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4851% → 50%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
48.7%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
48.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
49.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+14
49.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 46 yds , Ryan White returns for 14 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:1250% → 48%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
50.1%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 46Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
49.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-9
49.3%
Johnny McCrary sacked by Terry Beckner Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the Vandy 37Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 19
OWN 37
+10
48.4%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 53 yds , Cam Hilton returns for 10 yds to the Misso 20 MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3951% → 50%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
49.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Keyon Dilosa for 7 yds to the Misso 17Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+2
48.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 2 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 1
OWN 19
0
49.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Misso 19Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 1
OWN 19
-4
49.8%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the Misso 15Similar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 5
OWN 15
+8
50.1%
Corey Fatony punt for 50 yds , Ryan White returns for 8 yds to the Vandy 43 VANDERBILT Penalty, Personal Foul (Jahmel McIntosh) to the Vandy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:3450% → 59%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
50.1%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+11
49.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 11 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+9
50.6%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
51.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Latevius RayfordSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+24
51.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Darrius Sims for 24 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
52.7%
Dallas Rivers run for 4 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+7
52.9%
Darrius Sims run for 7 yds to the Misso 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
53.1%
Darrius Sims run for 11 yds to the Misso 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
53.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Nathan MarcusSimilar
Q2 11:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
53.3%
Ralph Webb run for 8 yds to the Misso 1Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.8%
Ralph Webb 1 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0743% → 40%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-6
57.2%
Drew Lock sacked by Stephen Weatherly for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 21Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 16
OWN 21
+5
57.9%
Russell Hansbrough run for 5 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
59.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 11
OWN 26
+15
59.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 61 yds , Ryan White returns for 15 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:5459% → 62%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
59.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 8 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+5
60.6%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
61.0%
Josh Crawford run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 1
50
0
62.4%
Josh Crawford run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 1
50
+1
62.0%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
63.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
62.8%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
62.9%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Misso 40Similar
Q2 5:35
4TH & 1
OPP 40
-7
62.2%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Kentrell Brothers for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0341% → 39%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
59.1%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+4
59.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 4 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
59.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q2 4:21
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
61.4%
Corey Fatony punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ryan White at the Vandy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12FUMBLE
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:0663% → 63%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
62.7%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 11Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+4
62.9%
Darrius Sims run for 4 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+10
62.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 10 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
63.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Darrius SimsSimilar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-4
62.6%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Charles Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 21 Kyle Shurmur fumbled, forced by Charles Harris, recovered by Misso Walter Brady , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0543% → 46%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
57.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 5 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-2
57.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 18Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
59.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
54.0%
Andrew Baggett 35 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14DOWNS
4 plays · 48 yds · 0:4058% → 62%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.8%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+46
58.0%
Ralph Webb run for 46 yds to the Misso 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+45
61.6%
Tommy Openshaw 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:3858% → 60%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.4%
Ralph Webb run for 8 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
60.1%
Dallas Rivers run for 4 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
59.8%
Darrius Sims run for 16 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
61.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 8 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
62.1%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Misso 39Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-1
61.6%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 40Similar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
60.2%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Cam Hilton at the Misso 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4340% → 37%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
59.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Russell HansbroughSimilar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
60.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 1 yd to the Misso 18Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
62.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 9
OWN 18
+13
63.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 53 yds , Ryan White returns for 13 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:0565% → 63%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
64.7%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+7
65.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 7 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
66.5%
Darrius Sims run for 5 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
66.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 5
OPP 41
-10
66.2%
Shurmur, Kyle rush for 7 yards to the MISSOURI34, PENALTY VANDERBILT holding (Bernstein, Jake) 10 yards to the VANDERBILT49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+5
63.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Steven Scheu for 5 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
63.0%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 35 yds, downed at the Misso 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0238% → 34%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
62.5%
Drew Lock run for 5 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 5
OWN 16
-8
62.6%
Witter, Ish rush for loss of 1 yard to the MISSOURI15, PENALTY MISSOURI holding (Hall, Mitch) 8 yards to the MISSOURI8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 13
OWN 8
0
63.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 13
OWN 8
0
65.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 13
OWN 8
+4
66.0%
Corey Fatony punt for 43 yds , Ryan White returns for 4 yds to the Misso 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0868% → 64%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
68.0%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Misso 47Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
67.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
66.1%
Kyle Shurmur run for no gain to the Misso 47Similar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
63.5%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20MISSED FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:0837% → 34%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
63.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+18
63.9%
Drew Lock run for 18 yds to the Misso 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
62.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 8 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+1
60.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Misso 33 Russell Hansbrough fumbled, recovered by Misso Russell HansbroughSimilar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 1
OWN 33
-5
62.0%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Connor McGovern) to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 6
OWN 28
-1
64.2%
Drew Lock sacked by Darreon Herring for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 27Similar
Q3 2:39
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+26
65.9%
Corey Fatony run for 26 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
58.8%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Leftwich, Wesley, PENALTY VANDERBILT pass interference (McGaster, Torren) 14 yards to the VANDERBILT33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI.Similar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
57.3%
Drew Lock run for 9 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 1
OPP 24
-5
57.0%
MISSOURI Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 29Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
57.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Jason ReeseSimilar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
63.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+47
65.8%
Andrew Baggett 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21FG
14 plays · 49 yds · 5:5870% → 86%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
70.1%
Darrius Sims run for 3 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+1
70.1%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 33Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+9
69.4%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 9 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
72.6%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 42Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
71.6%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Caleb Scott for 5 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+5
72.5%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 5 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
74.4%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 11 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
74.7%
Josh Crawford run for 2 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+7
76.1%
Josh Crawford run for 7 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+14
74.8%
Johnny McCrary run for 14 yds to the Misso 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
76.7%
Josh Crawford run for 1 yd to the Misso 13Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
76.9%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for no gain to the Misso 13Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 9
OPP 13
-9
75.8%
Johnny McCrary run for a loss of 9 yards to the Misso 22Similar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 18
OPP 22
+40
85.8%
Tommy Openshaw 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:4919% → 13%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
81.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 17 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
78.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+10
79.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Keyon Dilosa for 10 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-9
80.4%
Drew Lock sacked by Landon Stokes for a loss of 9 yards to the Misso 48Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 19
OWN 48
+6
84.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 6 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 13
OPP 46
0
85.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
86.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Ryan White at the Vandy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:2289% → 91%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
88.9%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 17Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+9
90.2%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 9 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 1
OWN 26
0
90.4%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 26Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+45
91.3%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 45 yds , Cam Hilton returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 28 Cam Hilton fumbled, recovered by Vandy LaDarius WileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24MISSED FG
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:1594% → 95%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
93.8%
Darrius Sims run for 9 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+8
94.4%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 8 yds to the Misso 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
95.5%
Darrius Sims run for 1 yd to the Misso 10Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-5
95.5%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Delay of Game (Johnny McCrary) to the Misso 15Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 14
OPP 15
-1
95.3%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 16Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 15
OPP 16
+3
95.2%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Misso 13Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 12
OPP 13
+32
94.8%
Tommy Openshaw 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 67 yds · 1:478% → 9%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
92.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 16 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+33
91.6%
Drew Lock run for 33 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-4
86.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 35Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 14
OPP 35
0
88.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 14
OPP 35
-10
91.6%
Drew Lock sacked by Adam Butler for a loss of 10 yards to the Vandy 45Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 24
OPP 45
+15
93.0%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Brown, Nate, PENALTY VANDERBILT pass interference (Sheffield, Donovan) 15 yards to the VANDERBILT30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+17
91.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 17 yds to the Vandy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
85.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
85.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
89.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Tyler HuntSimilar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 10
OPP 13
0
91.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 9:12
Tommy Openshaw 40 Yd Field Goal
+10.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 1:34
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Leftwich, Wesley, PENALTY VANDERBILT pass interference (McGaster, Torren) 14 yards to the VANDERBILT33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI.
-7.1
FG · Q2 0:49
Andrew Baggett 35 Yd Field Goal
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com