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UK

Kentucky 16 at Mississippi State 42

MSST
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:18 · Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Kent 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Pregame prior+19.4Home team on offense+2.7Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.5Blowout margin−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:49: Dak Prescott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +2.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:38: Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 13 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +2.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:34: Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 8 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +8.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:34: Dak Prescott run for 20 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +5.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:59: Dak Prescott pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 13 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +5.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:02UK 4th & 5 at MSST 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    22.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:05MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:38MSST 4th & 2 at UK 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    72.8%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:56UK 4th & 10 at MSST 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:25UK 4th & 15 at UK 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:18MSST 4th & 1 at UK 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.4%−1.0
    77% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:03UK 4th & 12 at UK 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:05UK 4th & 10 at MSST 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:03UK 4th & 2 at MSST 31, down 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.5%−1.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:23MSST 4th & 7 at UK 44, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%−0.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:55UK 4th & 14 at MSST 14, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−4.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:58UK 4th & 3 at UK 42, down 19
    Close callPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:18MSST 4th & 8 at UK 45, up 26
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:19UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:49MSST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:38MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:34MSST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:34MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:59MSST Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:14MSST Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:3621% → 22%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
78.6%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 24Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
78.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 1 yd to the Kent 25Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+25
78.5%
Stanley Williams run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
50
+8
78.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 8 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-1
78.1%
Patrick Towles run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-2
77.9%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
77.9%
Landon Foster punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5078% → 78%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
78.0%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
77.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+8
77.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 8 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
77.5%
Logan Cooke punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ryan Timmons at the Kent 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:2923% → 26%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
77.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 22 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
77.2%
Stanley Williams run for 14 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
76.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 13 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
76.7%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+10
76.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for no gain to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (10 Yards) to the MisSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
76.3%
Stanley Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 2Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
74.4%
Patrick Towles run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 5:0875% → 76%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
74.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+5
74.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 5 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+5
74.4%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
74.2%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+12
74.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 12 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
74.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 14 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
74.5%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 36Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+4
74.2%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+2
74.0%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+9
73.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Justin Johnson for 9 yds to the Kent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
73.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 6 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+9
73.7%
Malik Dear run for 9 yds to the Kent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
73.5%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the Kent 3Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
73.4%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.3%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 1:5325% → 27%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.1%
KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 20Similar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+20
74.8%
Stanley Williams run for 20 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
74.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
50
+8
73.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Blake Bone for 8 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+15
73.1%
Stanley Williams run for 15 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
72.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Blake BoneSimilar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
72.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to C.J. ConradSimilar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
73.3%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
73.1%
Austin MacGinnis 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0473% → 77%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
73.1%
Dak Prescott run for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
73.2%
Dontavian Lee run for 2 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+24
73.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 24 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
74.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 11 yds to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
74.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 13 yds to the Kent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
74.4%
Dontavian Lee run for no gain to the Kent 13Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
77.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 13 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:4124% → 24%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
75.6%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 11Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 12
OWN 11
-6
75.6%
Patrick Towles sacked by Zach Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 5Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 18
OWN 5
+3
76.1%
Jojo Kemp run for 3 yds to the Kent 8Similar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 15
OWN 8
0
76.5%
Landon Foster punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the Kent 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:5377% → 75%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
76.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 14 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
76.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Joe MorrowSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
76.7%
Dak Prescott run for 7 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+2
76.2%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
75.4%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Kent 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:0826% → 25%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
74.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-4
74.6%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 15Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 14
OWN 15
+14
75.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 14 yds to the Kent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
74.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 12 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
73.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
73.6%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-5
73.2%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
75.1%
Landon Foster punt for 47 yds , Fred Ross returns for no gain to the MisSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
74.8%
Dak Prescott pass intercepted Chris Westry return for no gain to the Kent 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11MISSED FG
12 plays · 27 yds · 2:4227% → 25%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
72.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ryan TimmonsSimilar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
73.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to C.J. Conrad for no gain to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+16
73.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 16 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
71.6%
Patrick Towles run for 7 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
70.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+4
70.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 4 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
69.7%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
69.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Blake BoneSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
70.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ryan TimmonsSimilar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+49
75.0%
Austin MacGinnis 48 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:1975% → 85%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
75.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 12 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
76.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 13 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
77.0%
Brandon Holloway run for 18 yds to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+18
77.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 18 yds to the Kent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
85.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 8 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:2516% → 17%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Charles WalkerSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
84.3%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
84.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 17 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
83.4%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted Taveze Calhoun return for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:1584% → 91%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+63
84.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 63 yds to the Kent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
85.5%
Dak Prescott sacked by Josh Forrest for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 20Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+20
90.9%
Dak Prescott run for 20 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:1512% → 16%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
87.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 19 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
86.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
86.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 8 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 2
OPP 31
0
86.3%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+48
84.1%
Austin MacGinnis 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:2288% → 88%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.1%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
88.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 9 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
88.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 9 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
88.8%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
89.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Joe MorrowSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
89.0%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
88.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
88.1%
Logan Cooke punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ryan Timmons at the Kent 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:3112% → 12%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
87.9%
Stanley Williams run for 9 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+9
87.3%
Stanley Williams run for 9 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
87.5%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
88.3%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted Taveze Calhoun return for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19MISSED FG
6 plays · 57 yds · 2:0190% → 90%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
89.5%
Dak Prescott run for 21 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+34
90.2%
Fred Ross pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 34 yds to the Kent 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
90.3%
Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the Kent 7Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
91.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 8Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
90.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Darrion HutchersonSimilar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 0
OPP 8
+26
90.3%
Westin Graves 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 5:2311% → 12%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
88.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 8 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+11
88.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 11 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
88.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 14 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+25
87.8%
Stanley Williams run for 10 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
87.4%
Mikel Horton run for 2 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+13
87.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 13 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
87.6%
Patrick Towles run for 2 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
87.9%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 5Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 0
OPP 5
+2
88.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (2 Yards) to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-16
88.3%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 4 KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 19Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 0
OPP 19
+5
87.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 5 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
90.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
88.1%
Austin MacGinnis 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:2490% → 97%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.2%
Malik Dear run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
90.2%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+26
89.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 26 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
91.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 14 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
91.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+20
91.4%
Dak Prescott run for 20 yds to the Kent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
97.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 13 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 1:455% → 4%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.3%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
95.4%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 20Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+15
95.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
95.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 5 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
95.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 2 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
95.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Alexander MontgomerySimilar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
95.7%
Landon Foster punt for 38 yds, downed at the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:2398% → 100%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
97.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Aeris Williams for 9 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
97.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
97.8%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
97.8%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+9
97.9%
Dak Prescott run for 9 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
98.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 15 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
98.1%
Malik Dear run for 1 yd to the Kent 38Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+11
98.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 11 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
98.2%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+6
98.2%
Brandon Holloway run for 6 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+18
99.7%
Dak Prescott run for 18 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24INT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.8%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
99.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 8 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+9
99.8%
Patrick Towles run for 9 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.9%
Drew Barker run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Blake BoneSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
50
-2
99.9%
Drew Barker pass complete to Charles Walker for 8 yds to the MISSSTATE 42 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Kent 48Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+27
99.9%
Drew Barker pass intercepted Cory Thomas return for 12 yds to the MISSSTATE 40 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Kent 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
99.8%
Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-1
99.8%
Dontavian Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 45Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+5
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 3
OPP 40
-5
99.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Kent 45Similar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
99.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ryan Timmons at the Kent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26END OF GAME
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:060% → 0%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
99.9%
Drew Barker pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 8 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+3
99.9%
Sihiem King run for 3 yds to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.9%
Drew Barker pass complete to Sihiem King for 4 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+4
99.9%
Drew Barker run for 4 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+16
99.9%
Sihiem King run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
50
+11
99.9%
Drew Barker pass complete to Jeff Badet for 11 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
99.9%
Drew Barker run for 6 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 4
OPP 33
-5
99.9%
Drew Barker pass complete to T.V. Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+10
99.9%
Drew Barker pass complete to Alexander Montgomery for 10 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
99.9%
Sihiem King run for 12 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
99.9%
Drew Barker pass complete to Alexander Montgomery for 6 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:34
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 8 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
+8
TD · Q2 0:34
Dak Prescott run for 20 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
+5.8
TD · Q3 0:59
Dak Prescott pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 13 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
+5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com