Try the model
AUB

Auburn 46 at Arkansas 54

ARK
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Razorback Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OTOT2OTOT3OTOT3OT4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:22 · Kevin Phillips punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorTime remainingDefense timeoutsGarbage-time factorOffense timeouts
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OTOT2OTOT3OTOT3OT4OTPlay 45Home team on offense+5.1Pregame prior+13.1Time remaining−0.2Defense timeouts+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.8Offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q4 0:04: Daniel Carlson 41 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +40.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · OT 0:00: Drew Morgan 6 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick) — ARK win probability +35.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · OT2 0:00: Peyton Barber 2 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +43.2 pts (now 59%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. TD · OT3 0:00: Kody Walker 4 Yd Run (Brandon Allen Pass to Jeremy Sprinkle for Two-Point Conversion) — ARK win probability +45.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT4 0:00: Drew Morgan 25 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Brandon Allen Pass to Kody Walker for Two-Point Conversion) — ARK win probability +32.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 5AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:33AUB 4th & 7 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:25ARK 4th & 24 at ARK 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:24AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:22AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:18ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:02AUB 4th & 11 at AUB 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:22AUB 4th & 2 at ARK 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−1.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:09ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:42AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:14AUB 4th & 17 at AUB 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−4.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00ARK 4th & 2 at AUB 44, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    80.2%−3.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:54AUB 4th & 1 at ARK 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%−7.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−21.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:07ARK 4th & 4 at AUB 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.7%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−34.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:33ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:22ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:30AUB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:09AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:14ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:54AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2768% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.7%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
67.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 9 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
67.7%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+2
67.7%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+20
67.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 20 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+23
67.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 23 yds to the Aub 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
68.9%
Dominique Reed run for 11 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
68.4%
Stanton Truitt run for 5 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+1
68.3%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 1 yd to the Aub 32Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+15
68.4%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo Louis (Jared Collins), PENALTY AR personal foul (J. Ledbetter) 15 yards to the AU47, 1ST DOWN AU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
68.2%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 7
50
0
68.1%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo Louis, broken up by Josh LiddellSimilar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 7
50
0
68.2%
Sean White pass incomplete to Melvin RaySimilar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 7
50
0
68.4%
Kevin Phillips punt for 39 yds, fair catch by D.J. Dean at the Ark 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+17
69.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 17 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
69.1%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+11
69.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 11 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
69.4%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+3
69.5%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
69.5%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew Morgan, broken up by Jonathan JonesSimilar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
69.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 15
50
-9
69.2%
Brandon Allen sacked by Gimel President for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 24
OWN 41
0
69.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 24
OWN 41
0
68.7%
Toby Baker punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
69.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 14Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+11
69.8%
Sean White pass complete to Peyton Barber for 11 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
69.8%
Sean White pass incomplete to Tony Stevens, broken up by Dre GreenlawSimilar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+35
70.1%
Kevin Phillips punt for 35 yds, downed at the ARKANSAS 40 AUBURN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Ark 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:3771% → 77%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
70.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew Morgan, broken up by Jonathan JonesSimilar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
70.4%
Alex Collins run for 9 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+5
70.6%
Brandon Allen run for 5 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
71.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Dominique Reed, broken up by Carlton DavisSimilar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
70.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 9 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+4
70.7%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
71.0%
Rawleigh Williams run for 8 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+1
71.0%
Rawleigh Williams run for 1 yd to the Aub 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+1
71.4%
Kody Walker run for 1 yd to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
77.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 23 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
74.5%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
74.4%
Sean White pass incomplete to Kerryon Johnson, broken up by Brooks EllisSimilar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
74.6%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo Louis, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
75.1%
Kevin Phillips punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
77.0%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+13
77.2%
Alex Collins run for 13 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
77.8%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
77.8%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
77.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter Henry, broken up by Blake CountessSimilar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
76.6%
Toby Baker punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Carlton Davis at the Aub 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
76.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 5
OWN 18
-6
76.6%
Stanton Truitt run for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 12Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 11
OWN 12
0
76.9%
Sean White pass incomplete to Stanton TruittSimilar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 11
OWN 12
0
77.1%
Kevin Phillips punt for 26 yds, downed at the Aub 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
79.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (Sebastian Tretola) to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+8
79.5%
Rawleigh Williams run for 8 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+1
79.7%
Brandon Allen run for 1 yd to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+7
79.3%
Brandon Allen run for 7 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
79.8%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
79.7%
Brandon Allen pass intercepted Kris Frost return for no gain to the Aub 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10TD
17 plays · 96 yds · 6:0321% → 29%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
79.4%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+8
79.5%
Peyton Barber run for 8 yds to the Aub 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
78.8%
Peyton Barber run for no gain to the Aub 16Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+19
79.0%
Sean White pass complete to Melvin Ray for 19 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
78.5%
Peyton Barber run for 9 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+12
77.4%
Peyton Barber run for 12 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
77.7%
Peyton Barber run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+5
78.2%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 5 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+4
77.8%
Sean White pass complete to Gray King for 4 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+19
80.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 19 yds to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
79.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-1
79.1%
Peyton Barber run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 14Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+9
79.8%
Sean White pass complete to Gray King for 9 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
79.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.1%
Sean White run for no gain to the Ark 1Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.5%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.0%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Ark 30 Alex Collins fumbled, forced by Jeff Holland, recovered by Ark Hunter HenrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5127% → 48%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.2%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
73.3%
Peyton Barber run for 8 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
72.6%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
72.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+10
72.4%
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 10 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
71.1%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for no gain to the Aub 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
71.8%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
50
+11
71.6%
Sean White pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 11 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
70.7%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+2
70.4%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+23
70.9%
Sean White pass complete to Melvin Ray for 23 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
69.0%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
52.3%
Jason Smith run for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0062% → 59%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.2%
Kody Walker run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
60.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Dominique ReedSimilar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
59.3%
Toby Baker punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
57.9%
Peyton Barber run for 5 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+2
57.3%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
58.2%
Sean White pass incomplete to Chandler CoxSimilar
Q3 7:42
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
60.4%
Kevin Phillips punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 4:0562% → 83%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
61.6%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+4
61.7%
Damon Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+5
62.6%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
64.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 19 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
65.5%
Rawleigh Williams run for 1 yd to the Aub 37 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Cassanova McKinzy) to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
66.5%
Dominique Reed run for 9 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+6
66.5%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Aub 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
82.7%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0026% → 22%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
74.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
74.3%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-9
76.1%
Sean White sacked by Jeremiah Ledbetter for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 23Similar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 17
OWN 23
+4
77.7%
Kevin Phillips punt for 43 yds , D.J. Dean returns for 4 yds to the Ark 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:4383% → 83%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
83.4%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 35 Alex Collins fumbled, forced by Kris Frost, recovered by Ark Brandon AllenSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+13
82.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Alex Collins for 13 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
85.2%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
85.3%
Kody Walker run for 3 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+1
84.5%
Brandon Allen run for 1 yd to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
83.4%
Toby Baker punt for 37 yds, downed at the Aub 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD
12 plays · 93 yds · 5:0719% → 53%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
81.2%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+12
81.3%
Sean White pass complete to Kamryn Pettway for 12 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
80.7%
Peyton Barber run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 20Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+13
81.3%
Sean White pass complete to Melvin Ray for 13 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
79.5%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 14 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
77.5%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-4
76.7%
Peyton Barber run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+46
79.5%
Sean White pass complete to Jason Smith for 46 yds to the Ark 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
74.1%
Sean White run for 3 yds to the Ark 4Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
74.1%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Ark 2Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
76.1%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the Ark 1Similar
Q4 6:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.2%
Jeremy Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 5:4757% → 91%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
57.2%
Damon Mitchell run for 15 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
61.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 4 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
62.1%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
60.9%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
63.2%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Dominique Reed, broken up by Carlton DavisSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+22
62.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Alex Collins for 22 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
64.8%
Kody Walker run for 2 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+5
64.8%
Dominique Reed run for 5 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+6
62.7%
Brandon Allen run for 6 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
64.8%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Aub 13Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+6
65.4%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Aub 7Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 3
OPP 7
-1
65.0%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 8Similar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
91.0%
Cole Hedlund 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 1:0314% → 62%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
86.0%
Sean White pass incomplete to Marcus DavisSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+12
86.6%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 12 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
84.1%
AUBURN Penalty, Offensive holding (Avery Young) to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 20
OWN 28
0
86.5%
Sean White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+20
86.9%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 20 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
82.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+28
83.2%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 28 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
76.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+41
38.2%
Daniel Carlson 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 76%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
40.5%
Peyton Barber run for 15 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
40.5%
Peyton Barber run for 8 yds to the Ark 2Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
23.9%
Peyton Barber 2 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22TD
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
28.1%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Aub 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
28.1%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Dominique ReedSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+10
21.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 10 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
28.1%
Drew Morgan run for 3 yds to the Aub 10Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+4
28.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Alex Collins for 4 yds to the Aub 6Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 6
0
25.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew Morgan, broken up by Carlton DavisSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+6
58.7%
Drew Morgan 6 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 15:0065% → 83%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
64.7%
Damon Mitchell pass complete to Brandon Allen for 11 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
64.7%
Kody Walker run for 11 yds to the Aub 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.2%
Kody Walker 3 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 15:0020% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
80.4%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Ark 23 Peyton Barber fumbled, forced by Josh Liddell, recovered by Aub Sean WhiteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+8
80.4%
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 8 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
80.4%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the Ark 14Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+8
80.4%
Sean White pass complete to Jason Smith for 8 yds to the Ark 6Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+4
83.8%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the Ark 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
40.6%
Peyton Barber 2 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 30:0060% → 84%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
40.5%
Ricardo Louis run for 8 yds to the Ark 17Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+1
40.5%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the Ark 16Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+6
42.6%
Peyton Barber run for 6 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
40.5%
Peyton Barber run for 9 yds to the Ark 1Similar
OT3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.7%
Peyton Barber 1 Yd Run (Sean White Pass to Melvin Ray for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 30:0015% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
15.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 6 yds to the Aub 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+7
15.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 7 yds to the Aub 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
15.1%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Dominique ReedSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
15.1%
Kody Walker run for 3 yds to the Aub 9Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+5
13.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 5 yds to the Aub 4Similar
OT3 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+4
59.0%
Kody Walker 4 Yd Run (Brandon Allen Pass to Jeremy Sprinkle for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 27TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
OT4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
91.4%
Drew Morgan 25 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Brandon Allen Pass to Kody Walker for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0013% → 6%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
87.5%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the Ark 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
88.1%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
92.0%
Sean White pass incomplete to Tony Stevens, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 24
0
94.4%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo Louis, broken up by Josh LiddellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT3 0:00
Kody Walker 4 Yd Run (Brandon Allen Pass to Jeremy Sprinkle for Two-Point Conversion)
+45.5
TD · OT2 0:00
Peyton Barber 2 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)
-43.2
FG · Q4 0:04
Daniel Carlson 41 yd FG GOOD
-40.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com