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MSST

Mississippi State 17 at Texas A&M 30

TA&M
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of GameFG-1.4TA&M 66.2%Westin Graves 38 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 7 · Q1 5:29
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:29 · Westin Graves 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Home team on offense+0.2Pregame prior+13.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 13:11: Taylor Bertolet 55 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +4.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:33: Malik Dear run for 52 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +6.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:20: Tra Carson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK) — TA&M win probability +5.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 10:34: Taylor Bertolet 24 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +4.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:24: Dak Prescott run for 5 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +13.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 7 of 10MSST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 9:59TA&M 4th & 1 at MSST 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    66.4%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:29MSST 4th & 3 at TA&M 20, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:27MSST 4th & 3 at TA&M 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    28.6%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:11TA&M 4th & 12 at MSST 37, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:49TA&M 4th & 14 at TA&M 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:16MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:58TA&M 4th & 10 at MSST 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:14MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:34TA&M 4th & 4 at MSST 6, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.8%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−7.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:25TA&M 4th & 3 at MSST 41, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−1.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:33MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 3, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:48TA&M 4th & 1 at MSST 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−1.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:50MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:04TA&M 4th & 12 at TA&M 29, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:41TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:11MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:23TA&M 4th & 2 at MSST 12, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%−0.7
    86% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−4.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:05MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 23, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:59TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:23TA&M Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:33MSST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:20TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:24MSST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1TD
13 plays · 91 yds · 4:5166% → 68%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
66.4%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 9 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+5
66.4%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the TexAM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
66.3%
Christian Kirk run for 5 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+25
66.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 25 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
66.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 6 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+16
66.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Damion Ratley for 16 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
66.6%
Kyle Allen run for 7 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+14
66.6%
Tra Carson run for 14 yds to the MisSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
66.6%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.6%
James White run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.4%
Kyle Allen run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 9:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 1 yd for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:2133% → 34%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
67.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+7
67.4%
Ashton Shumpert run for 7 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
67.7%
Dak Prescott sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+26
67.9%
Dak Prescott run for 26 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
67.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 11 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
67.4%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+3
67.4%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+7
67.5%
Prescott, Dak pass incomplete to Wilson, De'Runnya, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Wilson, Donovan) 7 yards to the TEXASAM27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
67.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
67.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+4
67.7%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the TexAM 20Similar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+38
66.2%
Westin Graves 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0267% → 71%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
66.6%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 9 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+16
67.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
50
+13
67.5%
Kyle Allen run for 13 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
67.6%
Christian Kirk run for 3 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+5
67.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 5 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+29
70.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Damion Ratley for 29 yds for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 2:4830% → 29%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
70.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 10 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
70.0%
Dak Prescott run for 11 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
69.5%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
69.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+9
69.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 9 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
69.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Joe MorrowSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
69.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+3
69.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q1 0:27
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
70.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Ashton ShumpertSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:0971% → 76%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
71.3%
Kyle Allen run for 9 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+21
72.1%
Tra Carson run for 21 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
72.3%
Williams, Brandon rush for no gain to the MISSSTATE35, PENALTY TEXASAM illegal block (Allen, Kyle) 10 yards to the MISSSTATE45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:37
1ST & 20
OPP 45
0
72.0%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+2
71.9%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 18
OPP 43
+6
71.6%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 6 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 12
OPP 37
+55
75.8%
Taylor Bertolet 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3225% → 32%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.0%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+19
75.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 19 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
68.5%
Malik Dear run for 52 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT
15 plays · 30 yds · 5:2170% → 71%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
70.4%
James White run for 1 yd to the TexAM 14Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+3
70.4%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 3 yds to the TexAM 17Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+9
69.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 9 yds to the TexAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
70.8%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
70.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to James White for 9 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+1
71.2%
James White run for 1 yd to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
71.6%
Kyle Allen run for 2 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-4
71.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 34Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+13
71.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Tra Carson for 13 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
73.5%
Kyle Allen run for 1 yd to the TexAM 48 Kyle Allen fumbled, recovered by TexAM Kyle AllenSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
73.5%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-6
72.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 9 yds to the TEXASAM 43 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Ricky Seals-Jones) to the TexAM 42Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+1
72.0%
Kyle Allen run for 1 yd to the TexAM 43Similar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
71.0%
Drew Kaser punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2428% → 27%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
71.6%
Dak Prescott sacked by Daeshon Hall for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 15Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
72.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+6
72.9%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+13
73.5%
Logan Cooke punt for 39 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 13 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0275% → 72%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
74.6%
Tra Carson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
74.8%
Kyle Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+11
74.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 11 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
75.1%
Tra Carson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+2
74.9%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
74.3%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+49
72.4%
Taylor Bertolet 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3628% → 27%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
71.8%
Brandon Holloway run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
72.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+2
73.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 2 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
73.2%
Logan Cooke punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 0:4573% → 81%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+32
73.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 32 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
75.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 22 yds to the MisSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
75.4%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
75.4%
Kyle Allen run for 9 yds to the MisSt 1Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.2%
Tra Carson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
81.6%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:3417% → 16%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+10
83.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 10 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
83.0%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 15Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
83.4%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+36
83.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 36 yds De'Runnya Wilson fumbled, forced by Donovan Wilson, recovered by TexAM Donovan WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:2685% → 90%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
85.1%
Kyle Allen run for 13 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
85.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 19 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
85.6%
Tra Carson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+6
85.7%
Tra Carson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
85.8%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+7
85.9%
Tra Carson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 3
OPP 5
-1
85.6%
Tra Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 6Similar
Q3 10:34
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
89.6%
Taylor Bertolet 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15FUMBLE
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:1012% → 11%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
87.8%
Gabe Myles run for 3 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
88.0%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
88.1%
Dak Prescott run for 11 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
87.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 7 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-12
87.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 3 yds to the MisSt 42 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+5
89.6%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+21
89.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 21 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
88.8%
Dak Prescott run for 10 yds to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
89.1%
Aeris Williams run for 10 yds to the TexAM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
89.2%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the TexAM 3 Aeris Williams fumbled, forced by Myles Garrett, recovered by TexAM Qualen CunninghamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:2292% → 93%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+49
92.1%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 49 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
92.9%
Tra Carson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+3
93.1%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
93.2%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
92.5%
Drew Kaser punt for 40 yds, downed at the MisSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:377% → 7%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
92.7%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the MisSt 3Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
92.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
93.0%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 8
OWN 3
+2
93.1%
Devon Bell punt for 40 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 2 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3294% → 94%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
93.6%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+6
93.8%
Tra Carson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
94.0%
Tra Carson run for no gain to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 1:48
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
93.6%
Tra Carson run for no gain to the MisSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:517% → 6%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
92.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
93.1%
Dontavian Lee run for no gain to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
93.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q3 0:50
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
93.9%
Devon Bell punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:3994% → 94%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
94.2%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
94.1%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Sabian HolmesSimilar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-2
94.1%
Kyle Allen sacked by Johnathan Calvin for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 29Similar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+7
93.8%
Drew Kaser punt for 46 yds , Fred Ross returns for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 2:376% → 19%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
93.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Justin Malone) to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+8
94.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 8 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+12
94.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 12 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
93.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+16
94.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 16 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
94.3%
Dak Prescott run for 13 yds to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
93.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+16
94.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 16 yds to the TexAM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
93.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 3 yds to the TexAM 10Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
93.9%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the TexAM 5Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
80.8%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 1:3486% → 85%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
85.5%
Christian Kirk run for 9 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
86.3%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Caden SmithSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
85.8%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
86.4%
Kyle Allen run for 10 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
87.3%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
87.1%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
86.2%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
85.2%
Drew Kaser punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2613% → 10%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
87.6%
Dontavian Lee run for no gain to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+4
88.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 4 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+26
89.7%
Devon Bell punt for 49 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 26 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24FG
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:3290% → 97%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
90.4%
Tra Carson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
90.4%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+15
90.6%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 15 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
91.4%
Tra Carson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
91.5%
Christian Kirk run for no gain to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+7
91.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 7 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
92.8%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
93.2%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+3
93.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Caden Smith for 3 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q4 5:23
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+30
96.8%
Taylor Bertolet 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:554% → 3%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
96.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 7 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-2
95.7%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+3
97.1%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 2
OWN 28
-5
97.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Justin Senior) to the MisSt 23Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
97.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:2598% → 99%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
98.1%
Kyle Allen run for 2 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+7
98.2%
Tra Carson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+8
98.5%
Tra Carson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.6%
Tra Carson run for no gain to the MisSt 6Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
98.6%
Tra Carson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:24
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
-13.1
TD · Q2 11:33
Malik Dear run for 52 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
-6.9
TD · Q2 0:20
Tra Carson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK)
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com