Try the model
ARK

Arkansas 24 at Tennessee 20

TENN
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Neyland Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of GameFG+4.9TENN 53.0%Aaron Medley 45 yd FG GOODAWAY 24 - HOME 20 · Q3 6:41
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:41 · Aaron Medley 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Pregame prior+7.6Home team on offense−3.3Garbage-time factor−2.2Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:57: Alex Collins run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +2.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:03: Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 33 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +4.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Cole Hedlund 26 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +5.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:12: Alex Collins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +14.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 6:41: Aaron Medley 45 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +4.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:29ARK 4th & 12 at TENN 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:55TENN 4th & 2 at ARK 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:49ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:34TENN 4th & 4 at ARK 10, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.3%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:33TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.3%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:54TENN 4th & 6 at ARK 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:11ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:22ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:27TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:41TENN 4th & 9 at ARK 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−9.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:44ARK 4th & 5 at TENN 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−14.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:00TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−2.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:04ARK 4th & 1 at TENN 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    54.0%−8.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−7.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:32ARK 4th & 4 at TENN 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−1.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−18.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:26TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:08ARK 4th & 4 at TENN 45, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%−5.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%−3.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:26TENN 4th & 13 at TENN 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.2%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:48TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:06TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:57ARK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:03ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:12ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
71.0%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Sideline Interference (-15 Yards) to the Tenn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:1129% → 29%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
71.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 14 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
71.0%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+7
71.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 7 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
71.0%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-4
71.1%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 46Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
71.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
71.5%
Toby Baker punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 3:1572% → 75%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+35
71.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 35 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
71.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
71.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 13 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
72.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
72.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+14
72.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 14 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
72.4%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+13
72.5%
Alvin Kamara run for 13 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
72.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 2 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+2
72.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Ark 7Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
74.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 7 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5626% → 29%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+52
74.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 52 yds to the Tenn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
73.6%
Alex Collins run for 11 yds to the Tenn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
73.8%
Drew Morgan run for 8 yds to the Tenn 4Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
70.9%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:4972% → 73%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
72.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+11
72.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Preston Williams for 11 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
73.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
73.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alvin KamaraSimilar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+4
72.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 4 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
72.7%
Trevor Daniel punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0028% → 27%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
72.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
72.5%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
72.9%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q1 2:49
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+2
73.1%
Toby Baker punt for 43 yds , Alvin Kamara returns for 2 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7MISSED FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:1173% → 73%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
73.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 13 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
73.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
73.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+31
73.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 31 yds to the Ark 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
73.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
73.8%
Alvin Kamara run for no gain to the Ark 10Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
73.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:34
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+28
72.9%
Aaron Medley 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 0:5728% → 34%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
72.5%
Rawleigh Williams run for 8 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+44
72.1%
Rawleigh Williams run for 44 yds to the Tenn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
70.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Damon MitchellSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-5
70.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (Brandon Allen) to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+33
66.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 33 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9FG
16 plays · 58 yds · 4:0368% → 69%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
68.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 12 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
68.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
69.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 6 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
68.9%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 46Similar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
68.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
69.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Von PearsonSimilar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
69.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 11 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
69.5%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+19
69.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 19 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
69.9%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 26Similar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+6
69.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+3
69.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 3 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
69.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:54
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+35
69.2%
Aaron Medley 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3831% → 30%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.8%
Rawleigh Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
68.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams for 1 yd to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
68.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to JoJo RobinsonSimilar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+29
70.2%
Toby Baker punt for 50 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 29 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11FUMBLE
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:3871% → 72%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
70.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
71.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 4 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+8
70.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 8 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
71.7%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+8
70.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 8 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+13
71.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 13 yds to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
71.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Preston Williams for 8 yds Preston Williams fumbled, recovered by ArkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:5831% → 30%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
69.0%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+7
68.8%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
68.6%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Ark 21Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
68.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
69.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+4
70.4%
Toby Baker punt for 50 yds , Alvin Kamara returns for 4 yds to the Tenn 25 TENNESSEE Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Tenn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4969% → 66%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
68.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 24Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-1
68.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 23Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+2
67.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 2 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+12
65.8%
Trevor Daniel punt for 46 yds , D.J. Dean returns for 12 yds to the Ark 37 ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Ark 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 1:2133% → 45%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
66.8%
Brandon Allen run for 8 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+4
65.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 4 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
64.9%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
65.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (Brandon Allen) to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
67.2%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+25
67.6%
Alex Collins run for 25 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
63.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 13 yds to the Tenn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
61.9%
Brandon Allen run for 5 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+10
61.8%
Brandon Allen run for 1 yd to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the Tenn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
55.4%
Cole Hedlund 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:3438% → 59%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
61.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 15 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+29
60.8%
Alex Collins run for 29 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
58.2%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+3
56.7%
Rawleigh Williams run for 3 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
57.7%
Brandon Allen run for 2 yds to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
56.4%
Rawleigh Williams run for 2 yds to the Tenn 23Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+19
56.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 19 yds to the Tenn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
55.8%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Tenn 1Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.6%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the Tenn 1Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.9%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:2146% → 53%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
45.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 9 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 1
OWN 33
-3
47.7%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 30Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+11
44.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 11 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+31
47.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 31 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
50.5%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
50.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
48.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:41
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
53.0%
Aaron Medley 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:5250% → 58%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.9%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
49.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+51
51.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 51 yds to the Tenn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
43.9%
Rawleigh Williams run for 3 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+2
42.9%
Rawleigh Williams run for 2 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+12
41.9%
Rawleigh Williams run for 12 yds to the Tenn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
39.4%
Rawleigh Williams run for no gain to the Tenn 7Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
39.6%
Rawleigh Williams run for 2 yds to the Tenn 5Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
39.9%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
42.4%
Cole Hedlund 22 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Shy TuttleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3947% → 44%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
47.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+5
47.2%
Alvin Kamara run for 5 yds to the Tenn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
47.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
46.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 18Similar
Q3 0:06
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
44.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
43.9%
Trevor Daniel punt for 47 yds, downed at the Ark 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 58 yds · 6:2259% → 67%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
40.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
41.4%
Alex Collins run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
50
+7
37.5%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-4
36.7%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 47Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+6
37.1%
Brandon Allen run for 6 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+1
37.7%
Brandon Allen run for 1 yd to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
34.4%
Rawleigh Williams run for 14 yds to the Tenn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
33.2%
Rawleigh Williams run for no gain to the Tenn 26Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+10
31.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 10 yds to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
30.8%
Rawleigh Williams run for 5 yds to the Tenn 11Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+1
30.4%
Rawleigh Williams run for 1 yd to the Tenn 10Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
30.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+3
33.0%
Adam McFain run for 3 yds to the Tenn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5841% → 37%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
41.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Von PearsonSimilar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
40.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 10
OWN 7
0
39.1%
Joshua Dobbs run for no gain to the Tenn 7 Joshua Dobbs fumbled, recovered by TennSimilar
Q4 7:26
4TH & 10
OWN 7
0
37.3%
Trevor Daniel punt for 44 yds, downed at the Ark 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:1073% → 73%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
26.8%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+1
25.4%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Tenn 43Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-2
24.3%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
26.7%
Toby Baker punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:3534% → 30%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
33.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 6 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+9
34.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 9 yds to the Tenn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
34.6%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 26Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 13
OWN 26
0
32.8%
Jauan Jennings pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+20
31.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 20 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
38.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 5 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-8
38.9%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Tevin Beanum for a loss of 8 yards to the Tenn 43Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 13
OWN 43
0
31.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
30.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23END OF GAME
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:2185% → 96%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
14.8%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+4
14.1%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+19
13.4%
Alex Collins run for 19 yds to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
7.0%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+4
6.7%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Tenn 8Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 8
-13
4.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the Tenn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:12
Alex Collins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)
-14.7
FG · Q2 0:00
Cole Hedlund 26 yd FG GOOD
-5.1
FG · Q3 6:41
Aaron Medley 45 yd FG GOOD
+4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com