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South Carolina 10 at Missouri 24

MIZ
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:42 · Sean Kelly punt for 36 yds, downed at the Misso 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Home team on offense+24.1Pregame prior+1.6Score differential+8.3Garbage-time factor+6.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:20: Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Shon Carson for 8 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +8.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:48: Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 9 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK) — MIZ win probability +7.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:00: Tyler Hunt run for 2 yds to the Misso 4 — MIZ win probability +8.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:02: Ish Witter run for 7 yds to the SCaro 24 — MIZ win probability +9.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:36: Ish Witter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK) — MIZ win probability +9.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 7SC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:33MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:28SC 4th & 27 at SC 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:45MIZ 4th & 3 at SC 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:24SC 4th & 14 at SC 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:36MIZ 4th & 11 at MIZ 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:11SC 4th & 13 at MIZ 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:42MIZ 4th & 3 at SC 3, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.4%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:30SC 4th & 1 at SC 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.3%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:38SC 4th & 16 at MIZ 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−2.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−4.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:00MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:05MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 9, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00SC 4th & 15 at MIZ 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%−1.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:17MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:15SC 4th & 1 at MIZ 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%−1.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−2.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:42SC 4th & 20 at MIZ 40, down 14
    Close callPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:19MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:20SC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:48MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:36MIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1265% → 64%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
64.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 23Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
64.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Clayton Echard for 6 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-4
64.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 25Similar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
64.3%
Corey Fatony punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -17 yds · 1:5736% → 36%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
64.3%
Lorenzo Nunez run for no gain to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-3
64.2%
Shon Carson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 48Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 13
OWN 48
-14
64.3%
Lorenzo Nunez sacked by Walter Brady for a loss of 14 yards to the SCaro 34Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 27
OWN 34
0
64.5%
Sean Kelly punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3TD
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:0165% → 67%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
64.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 48Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+4
64.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 4 yds to the SCaro 48Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+9
64.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Cam Hilton for 9 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
64.8%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+3
65.0%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
64.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+9
64.3%
Drew Lock run for 9 yds to the SCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
64.9%
Russell Hansbrough run for 4 yds to the SCaro 19Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+4
64.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 4 yds to the SCaro 15Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+7
64.6%
Russell Hansbrough run for 7 yds to the SCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
67.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 8 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:3633% → 33%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
66.7%
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Carlton Heard for 15 yds to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
66.3%
Shon Carson run for 1 yd to the SCaro 41Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
66.5%
Lorenzo Nunez pass incomplete to Matrick BeltonSimilar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-5
66.8%
Lorenzo Nunez sacked by Marcell Frazier for a loss of 5 yards to the SCaro 36Similar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 14
OWN 36
+10
67.5%
Sean Kelly punt for 54 yds , Cam Hilton returns for 10 yds to the Misso 46 MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3967% → 66%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
67.2%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Misso 10Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-9
67.4%
Drew Lock sacked by Cedrick Cooper for a loss of 9 yards to the Misso 1Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 19
OWN 1
+8
66.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 8 yds to the Misso 9Similar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 11
OWN 9
0
66.3%
Corey Fatony punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Pharoh Cooper at the Misso 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6FG
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:1434% → 35%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+35
66.1%
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 35 yds to the Misso 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
65.4%
Pharoh Cooper pass incomplete to Shon CarsonSimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
65.3%
Lorenzo Nunez pass incomplete to David WilliamsSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-3
65.9%
Lorenzo Nunez sacked by Walter Brady for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 16Similar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+34
64.6%
Elliott Fry 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7FG
13 plays · 72 yds · 3:1865% → 69%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
64.9%
Ish Witter run for 17 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
65.8%
Drew Lock run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 40 Drew Lock fumbled, recovered by MissoSimilar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+9
65.4%
Ish Witter run for 9 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+5
65.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 5 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
66.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Jason ReeseSimilar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+15
66.2%
Ish Witter run for 15 yds to the SCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+24
66.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 24 yds to the SCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
66.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 5 yds to the SCaro 2Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
66.6%
Drew Lock run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 3Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
66.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Jason ReeseSimilar
Q2 13:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
68.8%
Andrew Baggett 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:2231% → 43%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
68.7%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 20Similar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
68.8%
Lorenzo Nunez run for 1 yd to the SCaro 21Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+6
69.0%
Lorenzo Nunez run for 6 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
69.4%
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Matrick Belton for 10 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
68.3%
David Williams run for 1 yd to the SCaro 38Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
68.4%
Lorenzo Nunez pass incomplete to Jerell AdamsSimilar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+8
69.0%
Lorenzo Nunez run for 8 yds to the SCaro 46Similar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+16
68.6%
David Williams run for 16 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
67.5%
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 8 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+7
66.4%
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 7 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
66.4%
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 7 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 3
OPP 16
-2
66.4%
David Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 18Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+9
67.5%
Lorenzo Nunez pass incomplete to Terry Googer for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the Misso 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
66.7%
Lorenzo Nunez run for 1 yd to the Misso 8Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
57.4%
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Shon Carson for 8 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:1263% → 73%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
63.0%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 31Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+9
62.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jason Reese for 9 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
63.3%
Drew Lock run for 6 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
65.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 11 yds to the MISSOURI 43 MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Misso 47Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 9
OWN 47
-7
64.6%
Drew Lock sacked by Dante Sawyer for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 40Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+9
62.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 9 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+17
63.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jason Reese for 17 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
65.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jason Reese for 6 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+10
65.4%
Ish Witter run for 10 yds to the SCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
65.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Wesley Leftwich for 9 yds to the SCaro 9Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+9
73.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 9 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10MISSED FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 4:0729% → 25%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
71.0%
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 17 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
69.9%
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Jerell Adams for 21 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
68.6%
Shon Carson run for 1 yd to the Misso 36Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+3
68.8%
Shon Carson run for 3 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+13
70.7%
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 13 yds to the Misso 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
68.8%
David Williams run for no gain to the Misso 20Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-6
68.7%
Lorenzo Nunez sacked by Kentrell Brothers and Donavin Newsom for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 26Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 16
OPP 26
+5
72.2%
Perry Orth pass complete to David Williams for 5 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 11
OPP 21
-5
74.1%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 26Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 16
OPP 26
+44
75.2%
Elliott Fry 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
73.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:3928% → 30%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.0%
Shon Carson run for no gain to the SCaro 25Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
72.3%
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Jerell Adams for 13 yds to the SCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
71.1%
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 6 yds to the SCaro 44Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
70.1%
Lorenzo Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+7
70.3%
Lorenzo Nunez run for 7 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
69.6%
Shon Carson run for 1 yd to the Misso 48Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+1
69.9%
Lorenzo Nunez pass intercepted Kenya Dennis return for 1 yd to the Misso 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0574% → 73%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
73.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 3 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
74.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 4 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
74.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
73.0%
Corey Fatony punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14INT
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:1428% → 31%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
72.1%
Lorenzo Nunez run for 8 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
70.5%
David Williams run for no gain to the SCaro 43Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+9
70.9%
David Williams run for 9 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
70.2%
Lorenzo Nunez run for 19 yds to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
68.2%
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for no gain to the Misso 29Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
68.8%
Lorenzo Nunez pass intercepted Ian Simon return for no gain to the Misso 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5577% → 75%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
77.0%
Tyler Hunt run for 2 yds to the Misso 4Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+5
76.9%
Tyler Hunt run for 5 yds to the Misso 9Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 3
OWN 9
0
76.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
75.2%
Corey Fatony punt for 45 yds, downed at the SCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3329% → 29%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
71.1%
Shon Carson run for 2 yds to the SCaro 48Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+22
71.1%
Lorenzo Nunez pass intercepted Walter Brady return for 22 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17TD
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:2681% → 90%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
80.7%
Ish Witter run for 7 yds to the SCaro 24Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+6
80.8%
Ish Witter run for 6 yds to the SCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
80.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Ray WingoSimilar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+10
81.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 10 yds to the SCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
80.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jason Reese for 5 yds to the SCaro 3Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
81.1%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the SCaro 1Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.1%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:2512% → 10%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.1%
Lorenzo Nunez run for 7 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+14
87.2%
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Kyle Markway for 14 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
87.0%
David Williams run for 13 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
86.7%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
86.8%
Shon Carson run for no gain to the Misso 38Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-10
88.0%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Misso 48Similar
Q3 0:24
3RD & 17
OPP 48
+2
89.4%
Lorenzo Nunez run for 2 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
90.5%
Sean Kelly punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cam Hilton at the Misso 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:1393% → 94%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
92.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Misso 12Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 12
-1
92.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 11Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+10
92.9%
Tyler Hunt run for 10 yds to the Misso 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
93.3%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Misso 22Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+3
93.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jason Reese for 3 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
93.7%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Misso 25Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
93.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 43 yds, downed at the SCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 4:189% → 4%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
90.8%
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Jerell Adams for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 30Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
92.2%
Lorenzo Nunez pass incomplete to Matrick BeltonSimilar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+29
92.4%
Lorenzo Nunez run for 29 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
91.0%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Jerell AdamsSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
91.0%
David Williams run for no gain to the Misso 41Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+9
91.4%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 9 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+3
94.5%
Perry Orth run for 3 yds to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
94.1%
Perry Orth run for 4 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
94.5%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Carlton HeardSimilar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-15
95.0%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Misso 40Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 20
OPP 40
0
95.7%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Pharoh CooperSimilar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 20
OPP 40
0
95.8%
Sean Kelly punt for 36 yds, downed at the Misso 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21END OF GAME
13 plays · 44 yds · 6:0496% → 99%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
96.2%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 6Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 8
OWN 6
0
96.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Nate BrownSimilar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+13
96.6%
Ish Witter run for 13 yds to the Misso 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
96.8%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Misso 19Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+7
97.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jason Reese for 7 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+4
97.4%
Drew Lock run for 4 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
97.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+8
97.9%
Ish Witter run for 8 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
98.2%
Chase Abbington run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 1
50
+1
98.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 49Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 12
OWN 49
-1
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 6:02
Ish Witter run for 7 yds to the SCaro 24
+9.5
TD · Q3 3:36
Ish Witter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)
+9
TD · Q2 9:20
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Shon Carson for 8 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)
-8.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com