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ALA

Alabama 38 at Georgia 10

UGA
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:06 · Collin Barber punt for 55 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 23 yds to the Alab 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 161Home team on offense−53.9Score differential−40.4Garbage-time factor−20.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−13.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Pregame prior+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 12:23: Marshall Morgan 27 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +2.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:26: Derrick Henry run for 30 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +8.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. PUNT · Q2 4:48: TEAM punt blocked by Minkah Fitzpatrick, Minkah Fitzpatrick return for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +9.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:48: Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 45 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +12.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:07: Brice Ramsey pass intercepted for a TD Eddie Jackson return for 50 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +6.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 8 of 12ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:17UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:53UGA 4th & 6 at ALA 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    55.3%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:36ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 23, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:33UGA 4th & 1 at ALA 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:05ALA 4th & 11 at UGA 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:23UGA 4th & 9 at ALA 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    49.9%−4.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:34UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:21ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:48UGA 4th & 14 at UGA 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−2.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:55UGA 4th & 8 at UGA 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:23UGA 4th & 7 at UGA 49, down 21
    Close callPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:49ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 25, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:21ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:24UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 22, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:18UGA 4th & 13 at UGA 22, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:08ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 47, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:19ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 30, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:23ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 32, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:44UGA 4th & 20 at UGA 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:07ALA 4th & 3 at UGA 35, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:06UGA 4th & 11 at UGA 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:10ALA 4th & 4 at UGA 37, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 8:26ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:48ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:07ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:05ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:05UGA Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UGADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3854% → 54%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.5%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Malcolm MitchellSimilar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
53.5%
Nick Chubb run for no gain to the Geo 25Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
53.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 9 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+14
53.6%
Collin Barber punt for 49 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 14 yds to the Alab 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:4146% → 46%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
53.6%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+6
53.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 6 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
53.6%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Alab 42 Derrick Henry fumbled, recovered by GeoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2554% → 54%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
54.2%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
54.2%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Glenn WelchSimilar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+1
54.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Terry Godwin for 1 yd to the Alab 38Similar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
54.0%
Collin Barber punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0846% → 46%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
53.9%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+3
53.8%
Kenyan Drake run for 3 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 1
OWN 23
0
54.0%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Alab 23Similar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
54.4%
JK Scott punt for 34 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for no gain to the Geo 43 Isaiah McKenzie fumbled, recovered by Geo Isaiah McKenzieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5555% → 54%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
54.6%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 45Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+3
54.7%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Terry Godwin for 3 yds to the Geo 48Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+4
54.4%
Greyson Lambert run for 4 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
54.3%
Collin Barber punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:1846% → 47%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+50
54.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 50 yds to the Geo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
53.2%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Geo 29Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-5
53.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Ross Pierschbacher) to the Geo 34Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+24
53.3%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 24 yds to the Geo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
52.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Geo 15Similar
Q1 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+6
53.0%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Geo 9Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
52.8%
Kenyan Drake run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 10Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
53.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the Geo 15Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+4
53.8%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Geo 11Similar
Q1 4:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
53.2%
Adam Griffith 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7FG
19 plays · 71 yds · 6:2653% → 56%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
52.9%
Sony Michel run for 7 yds to the Geo 27Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
53.2%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
52.7%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the Geo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+36
53.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 36 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
54.9%
Sony Michel run for no gain to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
54.9%
Greyson Lambert run for 9 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+1
53.7%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
54.5%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+2
54.5%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 3
OPP 17
0
53.7%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Malcolm MitchellSimilar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+9
52.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the Alab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
54.5%
GEORGIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Alab 23Similar
Q2 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 23
-7
54.4%
Greyson Lambert run for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 30 Greyson Lambert fumbled, recovered by GeoSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 30
-5
53.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Nick Chubb for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 35
+26
52.3%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Terry Godwin for 26 yds to the Alab 9Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
55.6%
Marshall Morgan 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:4346% → 58%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
53.6%
Kenyan Drake run for 7 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+2
52.6%
Kenyan Drake run for 2 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
52.9%
Jake Coker run for 2 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
53.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 14 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
51.3%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 9
50
+18
51.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 18 yds to the Geo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
50.1%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+30
42.0%
Derrick Henry run for 30 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3744% → 43%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
44.2%
Greyson Lambert run for 4 yds to the Geo 26Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
44.2%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
43.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Malcolm MitchellSimilar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
42.9%
Collin Barber punt for 32 yds, downed at the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0359% → 58%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
41.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 1 yd to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+5
40.9%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
40.9%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q2 6:21
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
41.7%
JK Scott punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11PUNT TD
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3343% → 33%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
43.3%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (Kolton Houston) to the Geo 15Similar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+1
43.2%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the Geo 16Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
42.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Malcolm MitchellSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
42.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Sony Michel for no gain to the Geo 16Similar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+1
32.5%
TEAM punt blocked by Minkah Fitzpatrick, Minkah Fitzpatrick return for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4832% → 32%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
32.4%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 11Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
32.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
31.9%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Nick ChubbSimilar
Q2 3:55
4TH & 8
OWN 11
+2
31.9%
Collin Barber punt for 36 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 2 yds to the Geo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
1 play · 45 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
19.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 45 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:1123% → 23%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.8%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
23.0%
Nick Chubb run for 16 yds to the Geo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
23.4%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
23.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Malcolm MitchellSimilar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
22.9%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
22.5%
Collin Barber punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 1:3481% → 82%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
19.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (Jake Coker) to the Alab 15Similar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-2
18.9%
Kenyan Drake run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 13Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+8
17.0%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-5
16.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (ArDarius Stewart) to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+9
18.2%
Derrick Henry run for 9 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+3
18.0%
JK Scott punt for 54 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for 3 yds to the Geo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:2826% → 26%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
26.0%
Sony Michel run for 15 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
27.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-3
26.4%
Brice Ramsey sacked by Tim Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2584% → 84%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
16.2%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-1
15.5%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
16.1%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Derrick HenrySimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
16.2%
JK Scott punt for 42 yds, downed at the Geo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+50
10.2%
Brice Ramsey pass intercepted for a TD Eddie Jackson return for 50 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2510% → 8%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
9.6%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Geo 17Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+5
9.1%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Geo 22Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 2
OWN 22
0
8.7%
Nick Chubb run for no gain to the Geo 22Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 2
OWN 22
+9
8.2%
Collin Barber punt for 40 yds for a 1ST down , Cyrus Jones returns for 9 yds to the Geo 31 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Roquan Smith) to the Geo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:0893% → 97%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+23
6.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 23 yds to the Geo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
6.6%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the Geo 8 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Tim Kimbrough) to the Geo 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
6.0%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Geo 2Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.1%
Jake Coker run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:393% → 3%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
3.3%
Nick Chubb run for 4 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
3.0%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Geo 30Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-8
2.7%
Brice Ramsey sacked by Minkah Fitzpatrick for a loss of 8 yards to the Geo 22Similar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+5
2.6%
Collin Barber punt for 40 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 5 yds to the Alab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0797% → 97%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
2.6%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Derrick HenrySimilar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
2.5%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+2
2.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
3.1%
JK Scott punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Reggie Davis at the Geo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23INT
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:182% → 2%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
2.3%
Brice Ramsey pass incomplete to Sony MichelSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
2.2%
Brice Ramsey pass incomplete to Malcolm MitchellSimilar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+20
2.1%
Brice Ramsey pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 20 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
2.3%
Sony Michel run for 28 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
2.4%
Sony Michel run for no gain to the Alab 33Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
2.3%
Brice Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
2.1%
Brice Ramsey pass intercepted Marlon Humphrey return for no gain to the Alab 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:2798% → 98%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+13
2.1%
Derrick Henry run for 13 yds to the Alab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
1.8%
Derrick Henry run for 15 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
1.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 5 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-5
1.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 33Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
1.6%
Jake Coker run for 2 yds to the Alab 35 Jake Coker fumbled, recovered by GeoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 25FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:102% → 2%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
1.9%
Nick Chubb run for 7 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+3
1.8%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
1.8%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Alab 24Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-1
1.7%
Greyson Lambert run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 25 Greyson Lambert fumbled, recovered by Alab Ryan AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5199% → 99%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
1.1%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
1.1%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
1.0%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 0:19
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+53
1.0%
JK Scott punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GEORGIA 32 GEORGIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Geo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 27TD
1 play · 83 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
1.9%
Nick Chubb 83 Yd Run (Marshall Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3299% → 99%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
1.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 2 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+1
1.0%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 32Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
0.9%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to O.J. HowardSimilar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
1.1%
JK Scott punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Geo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 29PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:161% → 1%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
0.8%
Greyson Lambert run for a loss of 10 yards to the Geo 25 Greyson Lambert fumbled, recovered by Geo Keyon BrownSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 20
OWN 25
0
0.6%
Nick Chubb run for no gain to the Geo 25Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 20
OWN 25
0
0.6%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Jackson HarrisSimilar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
0.6%
Collin Barber punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 30DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 3:3199% → 100%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
0.7%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+1
0.7%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 36Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+22
0.6%
Derrick Henry run for 22 yds to the Geo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
0.5%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Geo 42Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
0.4%
Jake Coker run for 7 yds to the Geo 35Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
0.3%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Geo 35Similar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
0.4%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to O.J. HowardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 31PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
0.3%
Sony Michel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 34Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
0.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Reggie DavisSimilar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
0.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q4 7:06
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+23
0.2%
Collin Barber punt for 55 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 23 yds to the Alab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 32DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 4:14100% → 100%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-9
0.3%
Kenyan Drake run for a loss of 9 yards to the Alab 25Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 19
OWN 25
+3
0.3%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 16
OWN 28
+15
0.3%
GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Devin Bowman) to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
0.2%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+10
0.2%
Jake Coker run for 10 yds to the Geo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
0.2%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Geo 43Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
0.2%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Geo 42Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+5
0.2%
Jake Coker run for 5 yds to the Geo 37Similar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
0.2%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Geo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 33INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
0.1%
Keith Marshall run for 6 yds to the Geo 43Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+5
0.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Reggie Davis for 5 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
0.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Reggie Davis for 4 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+7
0.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Reggie Davis for 7 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+29
0.1%
Greyson Lambert pass intercepted Ronnie Harrison return for 29 yds to the Geo 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 34END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:17100% → 100%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
0.1%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the Geo 37Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+3
0.1%
Bo Scarbrough run for 3 yds to the Geo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:48
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 45 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
-12.7
PUNT · Q2 4:48
TEAM punt blocked by Minkah Fitzpatrick, Minkah Fitzpatrick return for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q2 8:26
Derrick Henry run for 30 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
-8.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com