Try the model
TENN

Tennessee 52 at Kentucky 21

UK
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Kroger Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:58 · Landon Foster punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−22.5Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:26: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 75 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +8.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:56: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 37 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +9.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:14: Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +8.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:34: Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 39 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +9.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:19: Austin MacGinnis kickoff for 65 yds , Evan Berry return for 100 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +9.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 12:58UK 4th & 10 at UK 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:57TENN 4th & 8 at UK 32, tied
    Close callWent for it · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    65.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    65.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:11TENN 4th & 8 at UK 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:35UK 4th & 4 at UK 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:06UK 4th & 10 at UK 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:54TENN 4th & 12 at UK 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    57.9%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:03UK 4th & 5 at TENN 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    38.3%−0.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:39UK 4th & 1 at TENN 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    35.2%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−9.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:29UK 4th & 12 at UK 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:29UK 4th & 18 at UK 39, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:36UK 4th & 20 at TENN 44, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:29UK 4th & 5 at TENN 20, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:09TENN 4th & 14 at TENN 13, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:32TENN 4th & 9 at UK 33, up 31
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 8:23UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:45TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:39UK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:26TENN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:40TENN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:56TENN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:14TENN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:34UK Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 8:19TENN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5127% → 28%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.0%
Garrett Johnson run for no gain to the Kent 25Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
27.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 24Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+1
27.5%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd to the Kent 25Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
27.8%
Landon Foster punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2FUMBLE RETURN TD
12 plays · 43 yds · 4:2872% → 68%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
27.9%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 33 Jalen Hurd fumbled, recovered by Tenn Joshua DobbsSimilar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+5
28.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 5 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+13
28.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 13 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
28.3%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 11
50
+16
28.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 16 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
28.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
28.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alex EllisSimilar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
28.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+16
29.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 16 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
28.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 18Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+3
29.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 9
OPP 15
-77
31.7%
Cory Johnson 77 Yd Fumble Return (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 1:5668% → 66%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.5%
Alvin Kamara run for 5 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
32.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
32.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 6 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
32.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 24 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
32.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
33.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alex EllisSimilar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
33.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
34.0%
Trevor Daniel punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Ryan Timmons at the Kent 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2134% → 35%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
34.4%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+4
34.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 4 yds to the Kent 16Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
35.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff Badet, broken up by Cameron SuttonSimilar
Q1 4:35
4TH & 4
OWN 16
+15
34.8%
Landon Foster punt for 43 yds , Alvin Kamara returns for 15 yds to the Kent 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:3665% → 69%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
34.6%
Jauan Jennings run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 46Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+11
35.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 11 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
35.1%
Joshua Dobbs run for 3 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
34.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+28
31.0%
Joshua Dobbs run for 28 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 1:2533% → 33%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
33.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-4
33.1%
Patrick Towles run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 16Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 14
OWN 16
-8
32.8%
Towles, Patrick pass complete to Johnson, Garrett for 18 yards to the KENTUCKY34, PENALTY KENTUCKY illegal use of hands 8 yards to the KENTUCKY8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 22
OWN 8
+15
32.8%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
33.6%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
33.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian Baker, broken up by Emmanuel MoseleySimilar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
33.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
32.7%
Landon Foster punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7FG
14 plays · 38 yds · 4:0568% → 67%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
32.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
32.8%
Dobbs, Joshua rush for 27 yards to the KENTUCKY37, PENALTY TENNESSEE holding (Kerbyson, Kyler) 10 yards to the TENNESSEE26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+9
33.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 9 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+11
33.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 11 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
32.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
32.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alex EllisSimilar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+11
32.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 11 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
32.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Von PearsonSimilar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
32.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+9
32.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 9 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
32.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-5
32.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 26 Joshua Dobbs fumbled, forced by Cory Johnson, recovered by Tenn Joshua DobbsSimilar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
33.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+44
33.1%
Aaron Medley 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:0933% → 45%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
33.4%
Stanley Williams run for 7 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
34.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 11 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
35.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 15 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
36.2%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd to the Tenn 41Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+4
36.1%
Mikel Horton run for 4 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
36.0%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:03
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+21
35.0%
Patrick Towles run for 21 yds to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
37.4%
Mikel Horton run for 6 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 4
OPP 10
-1
36.8%
Mikel Horton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 11Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+6
36.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 6 yds to the Tenn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
38.4%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Tenn 2Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
38.6%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Tenn 2Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
37.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 1 yd to the Tenn 1Similar
Q2 5:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.2%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
34.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 75 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 2:4535% → 35%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
35.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-5
35.1%
Horton, Mikel rush for 8 yards to the KENTUCKY19, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding (Toth, Jon) 5 yards to the KENTUCKY6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 15
OWN 6
+8
35.0%
Mikel Horton run for 8 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+19
34.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Mikel Horton for 19 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
36.3%
Mikel Horton run for 2 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
36.2%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-4
35.5%
Patrick Towles sacked by Derek Barnett for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 31Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
35.2%
Landon Foster punt for 44 yds, downed at the Tenn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4464% → 77%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
35.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
34.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 5 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
34.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-5
33.2%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Mack Crowder) to the Tenn 36Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+63
34.7%
Alvin Kamara run for 63 yds to the Kent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
31.4%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Kent 1Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12END OF HALF
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:3125% → 26%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
25.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 8 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+3
25.3%
Patrick Towles run for 3 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
25.5%
Towles, Patrick pass sacked for loss of 2 yards to the KENTUCKY36 (Barnett, Derek), PENALTY TENNESSEE face mask (Barnett, Derek) 15 yards to the TENNESSEE47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
26.6%
Patrick Towles run for 4 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
25.8%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
26.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0475% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
24.6%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Kyler Kerbyson) to the Tenn 20Similar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
24.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 10 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
24.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 7 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
23.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 11 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
23.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 4 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+1
22.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Kent 47Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+8
22.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 8 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
22.5%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd to the Kent 38Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+1
22.4%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd to the Kent 37Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+37
12.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 37 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:2915% → 14%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
14.4%
Mikel Horton run for 10 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
14.4%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted Darrin Kirkland Jr. return for 26 yds to the Kent 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
5.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:327% → 15%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
6.5%
Mikel Horton run for 18 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
6.2%
Mikel Horton run for 5 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+13
6.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 13 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
15.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 39 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT RETURN TD
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:436% → 2%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
5.4%
Mikel Horton run for 11 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
5.8%
Mikel Horton run for 21 yds to the KENTUCKY 43 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Blake Bone) to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
5.4%
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-10
5.0%
Towles, Patrick rush for 16 yards to the TENNESSEE35, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding (Meadows, Kyle) 10 yards to the KENTUCKY39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 18
OWN 39
0
4.7%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 18
OWN 39
0
4.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 18
OWN 39
+84
2.2%
Landon Foster punt for 45 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 84 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 4:432% → 1%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
2.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 11 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
2.1%
Mikel Horton run for 3 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+15
2.0%
Towles, Patrick pass incomplete to Johnson, Garrett, PENALTY TENNESSEE personal foul (Moseley, Emmanuel) 15 yards to the TENNESSEE46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY. Moseley ejected for targeting.Similar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
2.2%
Kemp, Jojo rush for 1 yard to the TENNESSEE45, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding 10 yards to the KENTUCKY44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+9
1.9%
Mikel Horton run for 9 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+13
2.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Badet for 13 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-15
2.1%
Towles, Patrick pass incomplete to Badet, Jeff (Sutton, Cameron), PENALTY KENTUCKY illegal block 15 yards to the TENNESSEE49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 25
OPP 49
+8
1.9%
Mikel Horton run for 8 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 17
OPP 41
-3
1.7%
Patrick Towles sacked by Derek Barnett for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 44Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 20
OPP 44
0
2.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q3 0:36
4TH & 20
OPP 44
0
0.9%
Landon Foster punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4099% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
0.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 20Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+1
0.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 21Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
0.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass intercepted Khalid Henderson return for no gain to the Tenn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:271% → 0%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
0.8%
Towles, Patrick rush for 10 yards to the TENNESSEE15, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding (West, Zach) 10 yards to the TENNESSEE35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+5
0.8%
Mikel Horton run for 5 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+7
0.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 7 yds to the Tenn 23Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 8
OPP 23
-10
0.5%
Towles, Patrick pass complete to Timmons, Ryan for 7 yards to the TENNESSEE16, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding (Meadows, Kyle) 10 yards to the TENNESSEE33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 18
OPP 33
+13
0.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 13 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+3
0.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 3 yds to the Tenn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
0.5%
John Kelly run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 14Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 13
OWN 14
0
0.5%
John Kelly run for no gain to the Tenn 14Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 13
OWN 14
-1
0.5%
John Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 13Similar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 14
OWN 13
+43
0.4%
Trevor Daniel punt for 43 yds , Ryan Timmons returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23FUMBLE
5 plays · 44 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
0.3%
Jojo Kemp run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 3
50
+13
0.3%
Jojo Kemp run for 13 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
0.3%
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
0.3%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to T.V. WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+22
0.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Blake Bone for 22 yds Blake Bone fumbled, forced by Max Arnold, recovered by Tenn Max ArnoldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24END OF HALF
10 plays · 73 yds · 6:35100% → 100%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
0.3%
John Kelly run for 4 yds to the Tenn 17Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+22
0.2%
John Kelly run for 22 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
0.2%
John Kelly run for 16 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
0.2%
Joe Young run for 7 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+4
0.2%
Joe Young run for 4 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
0.2%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-3
0.1%
John Kelly run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 35Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+2
0.1%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+19
0.1%
John Kelly run for 19 yds to the Kent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
0.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the Kent 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:56
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 37 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q3 8:19
Austin MacGinnis kickoff for 65 yds , Evan Berry return for 100 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q3 8:34
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 39 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com