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VAN

Vanderbilt 0 at Houston 34

HOU
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:10 · Tommy Openshaw punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Home team on offense+2.4Pregame prior+22.2Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:18: Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +2.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:40: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 11 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +7.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 4:15: Ty Cummings 37 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +3.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 10:54: Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 32 — HOU win probability +2.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:28: Johnny McCrary pass intercepted for a TD William Jackson III return for 55 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +3.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9VAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:00HOU 4th & 13 at VAN 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    81.0%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:57VAN 4th & 16 at VAN 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:50HOU 4th & 21 at HOU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:15VAN 4th & 12 at VAN 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:52HOU 4th & 11 at VAN 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    78.7%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:10VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:48HOU 4th & 5 at VAN 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:42VAN 4th & 2 at VAN 25, down 17
    Close callPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:15HOU 4th & 4 at VAN 20, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.7%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−4.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:44VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 30, down 20
    Close callPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:33HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 34, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:14VAN 4th & 17 at HOU 32, down 20
    Close callPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    3.5%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:59VAN 4th & 13 at VAN 20, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:05VAN 4th & 12 at VAN 19, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:57HOU 4th & 5 at VAN 38, up 34
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:08VAN 4th & 9 at HOU 48, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:05HOU 4th & 1 at VAN 31, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:17HOU 4th & 2 at VAN 21, up 34
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 3:18HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:40HOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:28HOU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:28HOU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1FUMBLE
12 plays · 32 yds · 2:5078% → 78%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
78.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 12 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
78.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 9 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+1
78.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
78.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
78.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 13 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
78.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 46Similar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 15
OPP 46
0
77.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+9
77.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 9 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 6
OPP 37
-7
77.9%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Zach Cunningham and Stephen Weatherly for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 13
OPP 44
-2
77.5%
Logan Piper punt for 31 yds , Ryan White returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 11 Ryan White fumbled, recovered by Vandy Torren McGasterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0322% → 23%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
77.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 10 yds to the Vandy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
77.4%
Darrius Sims run for 10 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
77.2%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Trent Sherfield) to the Vandy 26Similar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 15
OWN 26
-1
77.2%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 16
OWN 25
0
77.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 16
OWN 25
0
77.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 16
OWN 25
+26
77.3%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 53 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for 26 yds to the Houst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 2:0778% → 76%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
77.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Houst 49Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-15
77.3%
Ward Jr., Greg pass complete to Dunbar, Steven for 6 yards to the VANDERBILT45, PENALTY HOUSTON illegal block 15 yards to the HOUSTON34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 24
OWN 34
+14
76.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 14 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-11
76.9%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Arnold Tarpley for a loss of 11 yards to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 21
OWN 37
+5
76.3%
Logan Piper punt for 37 yds , Ryan White returns for 5 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3524% → 24%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
76.4%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-5
75.8%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Blake Fromang) to the Vandy 31Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
76.1%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
76.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
76.4%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2377% → 76%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
76.9%
Demarcus Ayers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 43Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+8
76.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 8 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-6
76.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 41Similar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
75.8%
Logan Piper punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Ryan White at the Vandy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:4624% → 25%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
75.7%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+13
75.4%
Johnny McCrary pass intercepted Adrian McDonald return for 13 yds to the Vandy 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:4877% → 80%
Q1 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
76.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 7 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Personal Foul (Jay Woods) to the Vandy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
76.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 5Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
79.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:0822% → 21%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
78.2%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
77.5%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
77.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
78.0%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
78.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q1 1:10
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
78.6%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9FG
10 plays · 77 yds · 2:1779% → 80%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
78.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 22 yds to the Houst 40 HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Carter Wall) to the Houst 25Similar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
78.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 15 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
79.4%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Steven Dunbar) to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+7
78.8%
Demarcus Ayers run for 7 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
79.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+52
78.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 52 yds to the Vandy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
79.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Vandy 3Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
79.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 5Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q2 13:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
79.7%
Ty Cummings 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2620% → 20%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 3 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
79.9%
Darrius Sims run for 2 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+25
80.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Steven Taylor return for 25 yds to the Vandy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:4281% → 88%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
80.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+1
80.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Vandy 11Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+11
87.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 11 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5814% → 13%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
85.8%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+4
86.2%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+2
86.4%
Dallas Rivers run for 2 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
86.7%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 5:2789% → 93%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
88.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 7 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
89.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+6
88.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
88.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+10
88.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 10 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
89.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+7
89.5%
Ryan Jackson run for 7 yds to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
89.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+1
89.7%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the Vandy 19Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 3
OPP 19
-1
89.7%
Demarcus Ayers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 20Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
93.4%
Ty Cummings 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:318% → 7%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
92.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 7 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 3
OWN 28
0
92.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+2
92.6%
Darrius Sims run for 2 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
92.8%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:1194% → 95%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
94.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+8
94.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 8 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-11
94.9%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Torey Agee for a loss of 11 yards to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 21
OWN 24
+10
95.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 10 yds to the Houst 34 Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, recovered by HoustSimilar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
94.9%
Logan Piper punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ryan White at the Vandy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:336% → 7%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
93.9%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+10
93.5%
Ralph Webb run for 10 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17FUMBLE
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:566% → 7%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
94.3%
Ralph Webb run for 8 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+2
94.1%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
94.5%
Josh Crawford run for 5 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
94.9%
Josh Crawford run for 4 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+4
94.4%
Josh Crawford run for 4 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
94.1%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Caleb Scott for 4 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+4
93.9%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+16
94.2%
Johnny McCrary run for 16 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
93.3%
Johnny McCrary run for 2 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+1
93.4%
Josh Crawford run for 1 yd to the Houst 29 Josh Crawford fumbled, forced by Elandon Roberts, recovered by Houst Nick ThurmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5396% → 96%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
96.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+5
96.0%
Ward Jr., Greg pass incomplete, PENALTY VANDERBILT offside (Woods, Jay) 5 yards to the HOUSTON37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
96.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 2
OWN 37
-3
96.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 37 Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, forced by Zach Cunningham, recovered by Vandy Stephen WeatherlySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:475% → 4%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
94.9%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+8
94.6%
Ralph Webb run for 8 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
94.7%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+1
95.1%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Houst 22Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-10
95.6%
Johnny McCrary sacked by Elandon Roberts and Tyus Bowser for a loss of 10 yards to the Houst 32Similar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 17
OPP 32
0
96.2%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 28 yds, downed at the Houst 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · 45 yds · 2:0097% → 97%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+12
96.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 12 yds to the Houst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
97.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Houst 16Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
97.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+33
97.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 33 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+24
97.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 24 yds to the Vandy 27 Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, forced by Andrew Williamson, recovered by Vandy Zach CunninghamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21INT TD
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:464% → 0%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
96.4%
Darrius Sims run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 25Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 12
OWN 25
0
96.7%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Latevius RayfordSimilar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+20
96.8%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 20 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
96.6%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 45Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
96.6%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Latevius RayfordSimilar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+55
99.7%
Johnny McCrary pass intercepted for a TD William Jackson III return for 55 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
99.7%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ronald MonroeSimilar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 6
OWN 27
-7
99.8%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Adrian McDonald and Tyus Bowser for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 20Similar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 13
OWN 20
+21
99.8%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 37 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for 21 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
99.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
99.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+12
99.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 12 yds to the Vandy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
99.8%
Farrow, Kenneth rush for 4 yards to the VANDERBILT13, PENALTY VANDERBILT substitution infraction 5 yards to the VANDERBILT12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 5
OPP 12
-3
99.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 7 yds to the Vandy 5 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alex Cooper) to the Vandy 15Similar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 8
OPP 15
0
99.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+15
99.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 15 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
99.8%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
99.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 8
OWN 23
-4
99.8%
Johnny McCrary sacked by Cameron Malveaux for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 19Similar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 12
OWN 19
+19
99.8%
Colby Cooke punt for 43 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for 19 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
99.8%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the Vandy 42Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+2
99.8%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+2
99.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 2 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Logan Piper punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:490% → 0%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
99.9%
Darrius Sims run for 7 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
99.9%
Dallas Rivers run for 10 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+10
99.9%
Ralph Webb run for 10 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.9%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:08
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Tommy Openshaw punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 27DOWNS
15 plays · 61 yds · 8:51100% → 100%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
99.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+23
99.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to John Leday for 8 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 2 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-5
99.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 43Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+3
99.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+14
99.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 14 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 39Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+5
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+3
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
100.0%
Javin Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
100.0%
Javin Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 23Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+2
100.0%
Javin Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 2
OPP 21
0
100.0%
Javin Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
100.0%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:40
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 11 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
+7.1
FG · Q2 4:15
Ty Cummings 37 yd FG GOOD
+3.6
TD · Q3 3:28
Johnny McCrary pass intercepted for a TD William Jackson III return for 55 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com