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MISS

Ole Miss 27 at Auburn 19

AUB
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:59: Akeem Judd run for 25 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +12.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 3:46: Daniel Carlson 23 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +8.5 pts (now 50%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:54: Chad Kelly pass complete to Derrick Jones for 45 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +23.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:00: Daniel Carlson 26 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +7.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 10:13: Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 21 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +19.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 11MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 12:56AUB 4th & 14 at AUB 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:30MISS 4th & 1 at AUB 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.7%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:55MISS 4th & 18 at MISS 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:52AUB 4th & 6 at MISS 35, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.1%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:50MISS 4th & 20 at MISS 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:48MISS 4th & 3 at AUB 39, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    50.9%−1.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:19AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:28MISS 4th & 8 at AUB 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:06AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.4%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:38MISS 4th & 2 at AUB 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    43.7%−2.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−2.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:30AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:20MISS 4th & 6 at AUB 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−8.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:05AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−3.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:46MISS 4th & 1 at AUB 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.7%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%−4.0
    92% to make
    Punt
    46.8%−15.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:46AUB 4th & 6 at MISS 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−12.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:34AUB 4th & 14 at MISS 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−3.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    16.3%−10.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:00AUB 4th & 9 at MISS 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−2.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−13.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:19AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 47, down 8
    Close callPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:25MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 42, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%−1.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:06AUB 4th & 8 at MISS 48, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.2%−2.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:08MISS 4th & 2 at AUB 32, up 8
    Close callWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.6%−0.8
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:11AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:59MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:54MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:13MISS Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:5930% → 31%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.4%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
30.5%
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 11 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
30.7%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+2
30.9%
Jeremy Johnson run for 2 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-8
31.1%
Sean White sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 8 yards to the Aub 32Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
31.2%
Kevin Phillips punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Collins Moore at the Miss 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:1669% → 68%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
31.4%
Jaylen Walton run for 7 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+18
31.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 18 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
31.4%
Jaylen Walton run for 1 yd to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
31.6%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+10
31.9%
Chad Kelly run for 10 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
31.7%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
31.8%
Jaylen Walton run for 13 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
31.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 14 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
32.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Aub 16Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+7
32.1%
Akeem Judd run for 7 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
32.4%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Aub 9Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+27
32.5%
Gary Wunderlich 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:1233% → 33%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Aub 30Similar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+6
33.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
33.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 33Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+6
33.1%
Jeremy Johnson run for 6 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+1
33.3%
Sean White pass intercepted Tony Bridges return for 1 yd to the Miss 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:1567% → 65%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
33.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 1 yd to the Miss 22Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
33.7%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 9
OWN 22
-9
34.2%
Chad Kelly sacked by Cassanova McKinzy for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 13Similar
Q1 4:55
4TH & 18
OWN 13
+11
34.7%
Will Gleeson punt for 37 yds , Marcus Davis returns for 11 yds to the Miss 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5535% → 36%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
34.7%
Jason Smith pass incomplete to Melvin RaySimilar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
34.7%
Sean White pass incomplete to Peyton BarberSimilar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+4
34.6%
Sean White pass complete to Roc Thomas for 4 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+52
35.6%
Daniel Carlson 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 2:5565% → 63%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
35.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
34.6%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
35.1%
Chad Kelly fumbled, recovered by Miss Chad Kelly or a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 29Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 17
OWN 29
0
35.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 17
OWN 29
-5
36.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 22
OWN 24
+2
36.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 2 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 20
OWN 26
0
37.0%
Will Gleeson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:1037% → 44%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
37.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 25Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+23
37.1%
Sean White pass complete to Roc Thomas for 23 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
38.6%
Roc Thomas run for 3 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+2
38.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+47
44.0%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 47 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 2:1457% → 56%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea Stringfellow. Play reviewed and stands as called.Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
43.0%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Jordan WilkinsSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
43.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+17
43.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 17 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
42.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+14
42.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 14 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
42.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+9
43.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 9 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
42.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q2 11:48
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
43.8%
Will Gleeson punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1245% → 45%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
45.3%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the Aub 12Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 7
OWN 12
0
45.6%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+3
45.1%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 4
OWN 15
-5
44.6%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Ricardo Louis) to the Aub 10Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
44.9%
Kevin Phillips punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Collins Moore at the Miss 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:4455% → 52%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
45.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 12 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
44.4%
Jaylen Walton run for 1 yd to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
44.7%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-5
45.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Laquon Treadwell) to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+11
47.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 11 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 3
OPP 42
-5
46.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 47Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 8
OPP 47
+3
47.9%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 39 yds , Marcus Davis returns for 3 yds to the Aub 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:1148% → 51%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
48.4%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+28
49.5%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 28 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
51.7%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
52.0%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+1
51.3%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
50.7%
Sean White pass incomplete to Marcus DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:4253% → 66%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
47.3%
Markell Pack run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 11
50
0
48.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 11
50
+9
49.7%
Chad Kelly run for 9 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+7
49.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 7 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
46.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 9 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+25
34.5%
Akeem Judd run for 25 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:1642% → 41%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.1%
Jovon Robinson run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
42.7%
Jovon Robinson run for 4 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
42.4%
Jovon Robinson run for no gain to the Aub 33Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
41.4%
Kevin Phillips punt for 38 yds, downed at the Miss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14INT
11 plays · 46 yds · 1:3662% → 64%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
38.4%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
38.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+15
39.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 15 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
36.6%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
36.6%
Chad Kelly run for 7 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
35.6%
Chad Kelly run for 2 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
35.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 10 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
34.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for 7 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
34.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
36.1%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted by Blake Countess, return for no gain to the Aub 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:3144% → 45%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
43.8%
Sean White pass complete to Roc Thomas for 10 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
44.0%
Sean White pass incomplete to Roc ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
43.7%
Jeremy Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 31. Play reviewed (possible fumble) and confirmedSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+3
44.6%
TEAM rush (kneeldown) for 3 yds to the Aub 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:3159% → 63%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
40.5%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
41.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 15 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
38.7%
Laquon Treadwell pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 21 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
37.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 10 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
36.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
37.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Jaylen WaltonSimilar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+4
38.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 4 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
36.6%
Gary Wunderlich 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5738% → 36%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
38.1%
Sean White sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 23Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
36.1%
Sean White pass incomplete to Marcus DavisSimilar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
35.5%
Kevin Phillips punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Collins Moore at the Miss 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:0165% → 66%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
35.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
35.4%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+24
34.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 24 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
32.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+16
32.7%
Chad Kelly fumbled snap, Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 16 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
32.3%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
32.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Aub 12Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+7
33.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 7 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
33.7%
Chad Kelly run for no gain to the Aub 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19FG
9 plays · 89 yds · 3:4936% → 50%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
35.7%
Jovon Robinson run for 5 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+9
36.4%
Jovon Robinson run for 9 yds to the Aub 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+44
37.0%
Sean White pass complete to Melvin Ray for 44 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
42.3%
Jovon Robinson run for 22 yds to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
43.8%
Jovon Robinson run for 11 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
43.9%
Jovon Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 6Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
43.8%
Jeremy Johnson run for 3 yds to the Miss 3Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
41.6%
Sean White sacked by D.J. Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 6Similar
Q3 3:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
50.0%
Daniel Carlson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3156% → 79%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.2%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
43.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 7 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
43.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Aaron Morris) to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+1
44.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 1 yd to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+24
45.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 24 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
21.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Derrick Jones for 45 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 2:1627% → 33%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.3%
Sean White pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
27.0%
Jovon Robinson run for no gain to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+46
25.6%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 46 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
33.7%
Jovon Robinson run for 8 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+9
31.5%
Jovon Robinson run for 9 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
31.5%
Jovon Robinson run for no gain to the Miss 12Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
31.5%
Sean White pass incomplete to Tony StevensSimilar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 10
OPP 12
-4
29.4%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 6 yds to the Miss 6 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gray King) to the Miss 16Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 14
OPP 16
0
27.0%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q4 14:34
4TH & 14
OPP 16
+33
33.0%
Daniel Carlson 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:4970% → 70%
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
30.0%
Akeem Judd run for 14 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
27.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 8 yds to the Miss 47 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 37Similar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 12
OWN 37
0
28.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 12
OWN 37
0
29.9%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted Kris Frost return for no gain to the Miss 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:1540% → 45%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+44
39.5%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Tony Stevens for 44 yds to the Miss 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
41.6%
Peyton Barber run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 4Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
41.9%
AUBURN Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Miss 9Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
39.7%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q4 12:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
37.4%
Sean White pass incomplete to Roc ThomasSimilar
Q4 12:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
45.3%
Daniel Carlson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2960% → 88%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.1%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+33
38.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 33 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
35.1%
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+11
32.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 11 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
31.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 3 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+21
12.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 21 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:2218% → 17%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
18.0%
Jovon Robinson run for 2 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+10
17.8%
Sean White run for 10 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
19.3%
Jovon Robinson run for 2 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
19.3%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Jason SmithSimilar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
17.6%
Sean White pass incomplete to Jason SmithSimilar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
16.7%
Kevin Phillips punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:3587% → 91%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
12.6%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
12.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for 5 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+9
10.7%
Chad Kelly run for 9 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
9.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for 5 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+3
8.2%
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
8.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Jeremy LigginsSimilar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
9.3%
Will Gleeson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 27DOWNS
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:0512% → 10%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
11.8%
Sean White pass complete to Chandler Cox for 9 yds to the Aub 19Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+6
11.5%
Jovon Robinson run for 6 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
11.1%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 16 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
13.4%
Jovon Robinson run for 6 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+4
14.1%
Jovon Robinson run for 4 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
13.3%
Jovon Robinson run for 1 yd to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
13.1%
Sean White pass incomplete to Melvin RaySimilar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
12.4%
Sean White pass incomplete to Melvin RaySimilar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
10.4%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:3695% → 97%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
5.4%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 6
50
+10
4.8%
Jaylen Walton run for 10 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
3.2%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
2.9%
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+1
2.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Aub 32Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 2
OPP 32
-1
3.5%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:034% → 5%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
4.2%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 14 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
4.9%
Jeremy Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:54
Chad Kelly pass complete to Derrick Jones for 45 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
-23.7
TD · Q4 10:13
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 21 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
-19.8
TD · Q2 3:59
Akeem Judd run for 25 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com